338
FXUS66 KMFR 302002
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
102 PM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Temperatures will remain near or slightly below normal through
  the weekend and into early next week.

* Widespread light to locally moderate showers are expected
  across the entire forecast area Saturday and Saturday night.

* Dry conditions return Sunday through mid/late next week.

* Along the coast, there is a moderate risk for sneaker waves
  Sunday evening through Monday afternoon.

* By late next week, early signs pointing towards active weather
  returning to the area.


&&

.DISCUSSION...An upper low is centered offshore of Washington and
northern Oregon today. This is bringing some isolated showers
into the coast and Douglas County. The upper trough will elongate
and the low will shift southward off the southern Oregon coast
on Saturday, sending moisture into the area and bringing an
increase in showers Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.
Models and ensembles support widespread light to locally, moderate
showers developing on Saturday with highest chances (50-70%) for
showers across northern California and across the mountains from
the Southern Oregon Cascades west. Periods of light showers are
expected (30-60% chance) in valleys west of the Cascades and along
the coast as well. East of the Cascades, in southern Oregon,
expect scattered to isolated showers (20-50% chance).

For Halloween evening (5 to 8 pm PDT), with scattered to
widespread showers across the area, expect a potential for periods
of light rain for most areas. Precipitation amounts are generally
light with around a trace to 0.10 inches in 3 hours and the
higher amounts are mainly over the mountains but also possible in
the Ashland area, southern Shasta Valley and the Mount Shasta
area. Locally moderate showers are also possible in Modoc and far
southern Lake counties.

The trough shifts inland Saturday night with showers continuing.
Then as the trough shifts eastward on Sunday, expect showers to
decrease in coverage.

Breezy to gusty southerly winds are likely today and Saturday
afternoon for areas east of the Cascades and in the Shasta
Valley.

Snow levels of around 5000-6000 ft on Saturday (and locally
4000-4500 feet west of the Cascades and in far western Siskiyou
County), will lower Saturday night and Sunday morning to 4000-5000
ft. This combined with showers may bring a light dusting of snow
across higher mountains, mainly above 5000 feet.

High pressure returns Sunday night through Tuesday, bringing
cool to cold morning temperatures, warmer daytime temperatures
and dry weather. Areas of morning fog are expected Sunday and
Monday morning for inland valleys and along the coast.

Looking further out, a weak low moves into northern California
from the west around mid week and will bring a chance (20-40%)
for showers, mainly from the Cascades west and across northern
California. Then a weakening front moves into the Pacific
Northwest Thursday into Thursday night with chances for light
precipitation over the area. However, this front may weaken
substantially as it moves onshore, limiting how much precipitation
falls. A potentially stronger front may move into the area late
in the week or into the weekend. However, ensembles show
significant variability on the strength of this system with some
pointing to the front weakening as it moves onshore and others
bringing widespread light to moderate precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z TAFs...High to mid clouds have spread into the
area with areas of showers, mainly along the coast and into the
Umpqua and Southern Oregon Cascades.  Conditions will remain
mainly VFR through this afternoon with local mountain
obscurations and local MVFR possible in showers. Shower activity
decreases this evening. Late tonight in Saturday morning, areas of
IFR/LIFR are expected to develop in the Umpqua Basin. Tonight and
Saturday morning, there is a low chance (15-20%) for IFR/LIFR
along the coast, including at North Bend.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 1100 AM PDT Friday, October 30, 2026...Unsettled
weather with occasional showers will continue through the weekend.
Winds are expected to remain below advisory strength through at
least early next week. Seas will be low through Sunday morning,
dominated by a mix of west-northwest and south swell. A building
west-northwest swell is expected to move into the waters Sunday and
Monday, with swell building from 2 ft at 21 seconds Sunday afternoon
to around 7 to 9 ft at 17 seconds around Monday afternoon. This will
result in combined seas of 8 to 10 feet on Monday. Seas gradually
lower Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 1100 AM PDT Friday, October 30,
2026...Guidance continues to depict a long period WNW swell
building into the area Sunday and persisting into early next week.
Originating from a storm currently over the western Aleutian
Islands, the swell arrives along the Oregon coast Sunday afternoon
at 2 ft 21 seconds. These high-energy waves will have the
ability to run much farther up the beaches and shorelines than
normal and could produce dangerous sneaker waves. The swell will
build to 4 to 6 feet at 19 seconds Sunday night then to around 6 to
9 feet at 17 seconds by Monday afternoon. So expect the sneaker wave
risk will be most prominent Sunday night and Monday. Wave periods
drop below 15 seconds Monday night; as a result, the risk of sneaker
waves will lessen by Tuesday.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday evening through Monday
     afternoon for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday evening
     through Monday afternoon for PZZ350-356.

&&

$$