487
FXUS66 KMFR 121219
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
519 AM PDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* An approaching low pressure system will bring light rain showers
  to many areas this afternoon and evening, as well as cooler
  temperatures west of the Cascades. Thunderstorm chances are
  highest (15-20%) for Coos, Curry, and Douglas counties.

* Gusty winds are expected in the Scott and Shasta Valleys as well
  as across the east side. Other areas may see periodic wind
  gusts.

* Activity eases on Sunday, with cool temperatures reaching the
  east side.

* Warm and dry conditions are in the forecast for the week ahead.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The first showers from an approaching low pressure
system are approaching the Oregon coast early this morning. This
system will bring cool temperatures to west side areas and light
rain showers. Daytime highs are forecast to drop between 10 and 15
degrees for west side valleys, while the east side looks to see
similar seasonal warmth continue today. Coastal terrain and the
Cascades north of Crater Lake have the best chances for evening
showers (70-90%), but forecast amounts of 0.25 to 0.33 inches will
be unimpactful. Lower elevation areas in Douglas, Josephine,
Klamath, and Lake counties may get a few hundreths of an inch this
evening. The eastern Rogue Valley as well as most of Siskiyou and
Modoc counties may stay dry through the day. Slight thunderstorm
chances (15-20%) remain in the forecast over Coos, Curry, and
Douglas counties, which may bring locally moderate to heavy
rainfall as well as lightning strikes and erratic winds.

The low`s approach will also bring gusty winds into the Shasta and
Scott valleys as well as most east side areas. Wind gusts in these
areas will mostly be in the 25-35 mph range, with gusts approaching
40 mph possible over terrain in Lake and Modoc counties. Increasing
humidity will prevent critical fire weather conditions, but these
gusty winds moving over areas of potentially dry fuels is enough to
emphasize fire weather concerns.

Winds ease into early Sunday morning, while showers may continue
over terrain into the afternoon. Cooler temperatures will reach the
east side while continuing over the west side. Depending on how
cloud cover behaves into Sunday night and early Monday morning,
areas of frost and freezing conditions may be present for parts of
the east side.

Northwest flow to start the week with the possibility of a Pacific
ridge nudging into the area towards midweek indicates a return to
warm and dry conditions. A shortwave trough may swing over the area
on Wednesday, but atmospheric moisture looks to be insufficient to
support any activity. Daytime highs for the end of the week may
reach 5 to 10 degrees above normal for most areas but so far triple
digit temperatures are not a part of the forecast. -TAD


&&

.AVIATION...12/12Z TAFs...VFR levels continue for northern
California and southern Oregon, but ceilings have developed over
North Bend and Roseburg as an active weather system approaches the
area. Ceilings look to generally stay at VFR heights, but periods
of MVFR ceilings are possible as rain showers develop this
afternoon and evening. Embedded thunderstorms are also possible,
with the highest chances (15-20%) over Coos, Curry, and Douglas
counties. Additionally, periods of gusty winds are expected,
especially east of the Cascades.

Rain showers and winds ease tonight into early Sunday morning,
although light showers may continue over area terrain into later
Sunday morning. -TAD

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Saturday, September 12,
2026...Normal westerly winds and below advisory seas continue
early this morning. Winds shift to the south near the afternoon
ahead of a cold front that will pass onshore tonight. Steep seas
are possible Sunday night into mid- week, especially south of Cape
Blanco, as the thermal trough redevelops.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

&&

$$