674
FXUS66 KMFR 181626
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
926 AM PDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.DISCUSSION...A few adjustments were made to the forecast for
today. The main change was to adjust cloud cover to better match
what the latest satellite image is showing. Marine stratus is
mainly confined to the Umpqua Basin, Grants Pass area, portions of
the Illinois Valley and the Coquille Basin. The marine stratus
will burn off pretty quickly this morning, but could be delayed
until around midday or shortly thereafter in the Umpqua Basin.

It will be dry today with afternoon temperatures near seasonal
norms, with dry weather likely to continue through this evening.

The models are in pretty good agreement with the front expected to
reach the coast later tonight and move inland Sunday. Per the
usual the NBM is too fast and too far inland with the extent of
the precipitation from 5-11pm pdt for the northwest part of the
forecast area. Meanwhile, the operational models and high res
guidance suggest it will be dry through this evening with
precipitation arriving at the coast overnight tonight.
-Petrucelli



&&

.AVIATION...18/12Z TAFs...Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery
is showing low clouds and fog over northern Curry and Coos counties
and along the Curry coast from Gold Beach southward. Inland areas of
fog with IFR/LIFR are present in the Umpqua valley.  Expect areas of
IFR/LIFR low clouds/fog to continue to develop through early this
morning  along the coast and in the Umpqua Basin with these
conditions affecting North Bend and Roseburg. Local patchy fog is
possible in other valleys west of the Southern Oregon Cascades and
in the Klamath Basin, including at Klamath Falls, but these
conditions will be brief. VFR returns by late Saturday morning, then
lasts through Saturday evening. As a front moves onshore, MVFR and
local IFR will develop along the coast and in the Umpqua Valley
tonight.


&&

.MARINE...Moderate north winds will persist through early this morning
south of Cape Blanco. A long period, northwest swell will bring
high and steep seas across the waters through early this evening.
Conditions improve briefly Saturday night. A front will move
through the waters Saturday night and early Sunday, with winds
becoming southerly. Winds will near small craft levels for the
waters from Cape Blanco north. Then, west to northwest winds
develop Sunday afternoon. Northwest swell will build into the
waters Sunday afternoon into Monday, resulting in a potential for
very high and very steep northwest seas. Seas will peak Sunday
night into Monday morning with northwest swells of 16-19 feet at
15 seconds at expected.

North winds will develop on Monday and increase Monday afternoon as
a thermal trough develops along the Oregon coast. This will likely
result in Small Craft conditions Monday afternoon into Monday
evening.

Towards the end of next week into next weekend, there is increasing
confidence a very active pattern will develop that could bring
moderate to strong winds and very steep seas.


&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 AM PDT Saturday, October 18,
2025...We`re heading into the time of year where distant storms
generate swells with long periods. These long-period swells harbor
more energy than a typical set of waves and have the ability to run
up much farther on the beaches. The first of these long period
swells is affecting the coastal areas today as swells peak around 10-
14 ft, 16 seconds. This will pose a threat for sneaker waves at area
beaches through this morning. We call them "sneaker waves" because
they aren`t always particularly large or even high waves, but
because they exhibit such high energy, they can suddenly wash over
rocks, logs and jetties without much warning. After a brief break,
another long period northwest swell will move into the waters Sunday
afternoon and last into Monday morning. This swell will be high
enough to bring breaking waves of 20-25 feet in the surf zone. A
High Surf Advisory is in effect for this.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Beach Hazards Statement until noon PDT today for ORZ021-022.

     High Surf Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 AM PDT Monday for
     ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...High Surf Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11
     AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-356-
     370-376.

     Hazardous Seas Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday
     night for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$