703
FXUS66 KMFR 011725
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1025 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.Updated AVIATION Discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z TAFs..VFR prevails across the region, with the
exception of MVFR ceilings in the Umpqua Basin. This will improve to
VFR by 20z. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for
most areas. Expect the return of LIFR conditions along the coast
north of Cape Blanco and south of Gold Beach tonight into Friday
morning. Cloud cover should be less extensive in the Umpqua Basin
tonight, but MVFR ceilings could impact the Roseburg terminal around
sunrise again Friday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 520 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Warm and dry conditions are expected across northern California
  and southern Oregon through the 7-day forecast period.

* Temperatures peak on Saturday and Sunday at 10 to 15 degrees
  above normal, with chances for more seasonal temperatures
  towards the end of next week.

DISCUSSION...An upper level ridge continues to dictate the forecast
for northern California and southern Oregon for much of the week
ahead. For today, daytime highs look to rise about 5 degrees from
Wednesday`s for most areas. This will put most coastal areas as well
as the Umpqua Valley in the mid 70s to low 80s. Oddly enough,
Brookings may see some cooling as a change in wind direction
prevents warm downslope flow into the city. Other west side valleys
as well as Modoc County basins look to be in the high 80s to low
90s. Lake and Klamath counties will be in the high 70s to low 80s.
These temperatures to be present on Friday as well, with some minor
fluctuations.

The ridge`s influence expands northward over the weekend. Current
forecasting has Siskiyou and Modoc counties staying at the same
temperatures while Oregon counties warm by another 5 degrees.This
will put west side areas in the low to mid 90s, while areas east of
the Cascades look to be in the mid 80s through the weekend.

There`s some agreement between models that temperatures decrease
slightly into next week as the ridge flattens somewhat and zonal
flow aloft develops. Long term meteogram guidance keeps
precipitation out of the 7-day forecast period. There are some
signals that a cold front may reach the area and bring some coastal
showers in the 10-day range. While agreement in precipitation
chances is slight to moderate, agreement in cooler temperatures is
somewhat more complete. But either way, there`s little expectation
of impactful weather in the forecast period.

With that said, unimpactful weather does not mean unimportant
weather. Warm temperatures that stay short of summer highs make
outdoor activities appealing but ongoing dry conditions have offered
little change from summer fire weather concerns. Dry grasses and
leaves are still present in many areas, which may make fire ignition
quick if sparks are created. Please be aware of these conditions if
you choose to do any camping or outdoor maintenance in the near
future. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Thursday, October 01, 2026...As the
thermal trough expands northward, steep seas will spread north to
around Coos Bay today, with very steep seas persisting south of
Gold Beach through tonight. Winds ease some Friday, but steep seas
will persist from Coos Bay southward. As the thermal trough moves
inland over the weekend, expect conditions to improve some,
especially for the inner waters, though gusty north winds and
steep seas are likely to be present well into next week.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday
     for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$