146
FXUS66 KMFR 280526
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1026 PM PDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.Updated AVIATION Discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period for most areas, with the exception being areas of low
stratus or fog late tonight into early Monday morning along the
coast north of Cape Blanco. Expect clearing to VFR for coastal
locations by around 18z Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 417 PM PDT Sun Sep 27 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* The chance of showers or perhaps a few thunderstorms continues
  this afternoon and evening.

* Temperatures continue to warm through the week and peak on
  Thursday.

* Dry weather expected through the week.

DISCUSSION...

A lot of virga is out there this afternoon, although a few
surface stations have reported light rain around the Warner
mountains. We should see shower coverage expand across the region
as the ground hits the convective temperature. Thunderstorms also
aren`t out of the question. The latest NBM forecast has a 10%
chance of cloud to ground flashes in western Siskiyou County. In
addition, the Cascade and Warner mountains also have a 10% chance
through this afternoon and evening.

The 500mb trough bringing us this rainy weather will move
eastwards overnight and skies will clear out in it`s wake. The
exception as always is along the coast where fog and some lower
stratus will build overnight.

High pressure will begin to build on Monday and we`ll see
temperatures trend slightly higher, yet they will remain slightly
below the climatological normals for this time of year. Not much
happening otherwise on Monday with the typical northwesterly flow
picking up in the afternoon. Temperatures will continue to move
higher on Tuesday and Wednesday, although remain near the
climatological normals for late September.

By Thursday, we`ll likely see a thermal trough build in over
southern Oregon with some lighter easterly flow off the Cascades.
Temperatures will warm up into the mid 80`s and perhaps hit 90
here in Medford given the pattern. Temperatures along the coast
should also be fairly warm with highs in the 70`s between
Wednesday and Thursday when we have this lighter offshore flow.

Finally, towards the end of the week into the weekend, we`re
watching a cutoff low in the Pacific, or perhaps a short wave
moving through the state of Washington. Frankly, there is a lot of
variance on the synoptic features around day 7, although the
large majority of ECMWF ensemble members are keeping things dry
over southern Oregon and northern California.

Overall, the low impact weather is expected to continue through
the week with seasonal late September weather.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Sunday, September 27, 2026...
A thermal trough pattern will keep gusty north winds and steep wind-
driven seas over all coastal waters through this afternoon, then
very steep seas are expected to develop south of Port Orford this
evening and persist through Monday. Conditions will gradually
improve Monday night into Tuesday morning. After a brief period
of lower winds and seas Tuesday, the thermal trough could re-
strengthen Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$