828
FXUS66 KMFR 260528
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1028 PM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.Update AVIATION Discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z TAFs...VFR conditions prevail across the region
and will likely do so through the TAF period for most locations.
Some low end VFR ceilings linger in portions of the Umpqua Basin and
Cascade Foothills, but should gradually clear overnight as offshore
flow develops. This offshore flow should maintain VFR conditions
along the coast by keeping the marine layer from developing. High
level cloud cover streaming overhead should limit low cloud/fog
development for the most part. Still, with the recent rainfall and
moist ground, there ought to be some local valley IFR/LIFR late
tonight into early Saturday, most likely in the Coquille and Umpqua
Basins.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 442 PM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Cloud cover continues west of the Cascades, with scattered
  showers over Coos and Douglas counties through the evening.

* Overnight lows reach near or just below freezing east of the
  Cascades, but overnight cloud cover will prevent lower
  temperatures.

* Seasonal weather and overall uneventful weather is expected
  through much of the week ahead.


DISCUSSION...Westerly flow aloft continues this afternoon, bringing
cumulus clouds across the area. Post-frontal showers continue over
Coos and Douglas counties, with isolated activity possible over
adjacent counties. Precipitation chances dissipate into the evening.
Overnight in the mid to low 30s are expected tonight, but evening
cloud cover look to keep temperatures from getting much colder.

Cool air lingering over the area will keep daytime highs 5-10
degrees below seasonal norms over the weekend. For west side areas,
this means highs in low to mid 70s while the east side will be in
the mid to high 60s. Deterministic imagery shows an upper trough
around a cutoff low passing over central California, which might
bring just enough instability to allow a stray thunderstorm or
two to develop along or east of the Cascades on Sunday afternoon.
Chances of thunderstorm activity on Sunday afternoon is in the
single digits over those areas.

The week ahead looks to be fairly uneventful. Zonal/northwest flow
follows the upper trough will bring temperatures back up to seasonal
norms through midweek. A weak front passing to the north may bring a
few light showers to parts of Coos and Douglas counties, but
accumulated rainfall is unlikely. There`s some divergence in long-
term models into next weekend, but the overall difference looks to
be whether temperatures say seasonal or warm a little. Additional
widespread precipitation looks to remain absent through the
forecast period at this point. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Friday, September 25, 2026...
Steep seas continue across area waters this afternoon. Winds are
turning northerly as a thermal trough develops. Winds north of Cape
Blanco will drop below advisory levels early Saturday morning, while
gusty northerly winds support an ongoing advisory to the south.
Gusty winds and steep seas spread north of Cape Blanco Saturday
afternoon and continue through the day Sunday. Winds and seas look
to ease on Monday. While westerly swell increases on Monday, this
increase does not look to support ongoing unsettled seas. -TAD

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$