669
FXUS66 KMFR 021914
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1114 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026

...Updated the Aviation and Marine Sections...

.AVIATION....02/18Z...Low ceilings are lingering late this morning
in the Umpqua Valley, including Roseburg(KRBG). Improvement to VFR
is expected around 20-21Z. Otherwise, conditions are VFR with high
clouds. Overnight into Tuesday morning, around 11Z through 19Z,
LIFR low clouds and fog are expected to develop in the Umpqua Valley.
Patches of LIFR are also possible in the Rogue Valley, including the
vicinities of Grants Pass and Medford, around sunrise (15Z through
18Z).

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 AM PST Monday, November 2, 2026...Long period
west-northwest swell builds into tonight with steep seas in the
outer waters. Shorter period southwest swell will then also build
tonight into Tuesday with seas also becoming high and steep in the
inner waters Tuesday through Tuesday evening. Conditions briefly
improve on Wednesday. An active pattern resumes Wednesday night with
building seas, including another long period west-northwest swell.

Seas may become high and steep again on Thursday with the long
period swell dominated seas forecast to reach a peak on Friday night
at around 13 to 17 feet at 15 to 17 seconds. An active weather
pattern will likely continue during the weekend into next week.

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 1100 AM PST Monday, November 2, 2026...
Long period WNW swell will continue building into the area into this
evening. Originating from near the western Aleutian Islands, these
high-energy waves will have the ability to run much farther up the
beaches and shorelines than normal and will likely produce dangerous
sneaker waves. The swell will build to around 8 to 11 feet at 15 to
17 seconds. The sneaker wave risk will also be enhanced during the
incoming high tide early this evening. The risk of sneaker waves
will lessen later tonight as wave periods become shorter.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 349 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Cooler weather and some chances of rain will arrive in northern
  California Tuesday with lower chances of rain in southern Oregon.

* A weakening cold front will push into the coast Wednesday night.

* Temperatures trend higher by Saturday.

DISCUSSION...

High clouds are currently moving over the forecast area ahead of
the next short wave. We`ll see mostly cloudy skies this afternoon
with temperatures right around the climatological normals for
this time of year. Otherwise, not a lot happening through the day
weather wise. The bigger change will come on Tuesday when the
aforementioned short wave moves into northern California. It`s not
looking very wet, although the PoP forecast does increase to about
30 to 40% over northern California with 10 to 20% chances here in
southern Oregon. Pretty low impact weather continues now through
Tuesday.

High pressure will likely build in Wednesday afternoon in the wake
of this short wave and temperatures will likely move a bit higher.
Valley fog could form in a few valleys by Wednesday morning if
there is enough surface moisture and dewpoints are high enough.

By Wednesday night, models are suggesting a cold front and quick
moving shortwave will swing into the Oregon coastline. The
probability of precipitation increases to 40 to 60% along the
coast with probabilities dropping off significantly farther to the
south and east. Again, this is just a little rain with only a few
hundreths along the coast.

Finally, it looks like yet another deeper wave will be moving
into the state of Washington, although the trough axis is not deep
and just skids over Oregon. However, the cold front associated
with this trough will approach the Oregon coast and bring low
chances of precipitation around the Sunday time frame. Again, this
isn`t a wetting rain, just enough to push the PoP forecast
slightly higher.

Overall, the weather pattern is exceptionally active, although
most of the moisture is missing us to the north. The weather
impacts will remain low and the biggest impacts will be the
morning valley fog in some of our valleys.

Lastly, the second week of November 8th to the 15 is looking
wetter for our area based on the ensemble forecasts. There are few
members still staying very dry for this week, although most are
trending wetter with heavier precipitation.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Beach Hazards Statement until 7 PM PST this evening for ORZ021-
     022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Beach Hazards Statement until 7 PM PST this
     evening for PZZ350-356.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-
     356-370-376.

&&

$$