Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
452 FXUS66 KMFR 300114 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 614 PM PDT Thu Oct 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Overall, this is a low impact forecast through early parts of next month * Expecting mostly below normal temperatures through the weekend and into early next week * Precipitation chances continue through the end of the month * Dry conditions return Sunday through mid/late next week * Early signs pointing towards active weather returning mid/late next week && .DISCUSSION.../Issued 211 PM PDT Thu Oct 29 2026/ A closed low over Vancouver Island will slowly progress southward while amplifying over the west coast as a long wave trough through the weekend. This pattern will maintain precipitation chances through this weekend, but generally not expecting a lot of rainfall or snowfall. For rainfall, we are only forecasting light amounts but upwards near a tenth of an inch for high terrain of western Siskiyou and coastal ranges through Sunday morning. Otherwise, most location we only see trace to a few hundreths. For snowfall, areas above 4500 feet could see a dusting to perhaps an inch in some very isolated areas along the Cascades and the Warners Saturday morning through Sunday morning. With the trough in place through the weekend, temperatures will be on the cooler side and below normal for this time of year. There is a small concern (30%) for frost formation in the Umpqua Basin Saturday morning, but confidence was too low given the cold bias in MinT`s lately. We may reconsider this threat if trends move in that direction, but at this time we are holding off on any frost/freeze headlines given probabilities too low and the cold bias as of lately. In fact, some areas were about 5-10 degrees warmer than the NBM for MinT which is an example of the cold bias lately. This isn`t too uncommon in these seasonal transition periods as the bias correction catches up with observations. An H5 ridge of high pressure moves in over the region early next week before the next trough moves in mid/late next week. This ridge will likely support temperatures closer to normal for this time of year. By mid to late next week, the pattern will be noted by a trough over the region, there is some timing uncertainty with the spread in guidance for H5 heights, but the general pattern will be active through late next week with precipitation chances across most of the forecast area. At this time, rainfall amounts and snow levels are high enough to keep the general trend in a low impact forecast going forward. && .AVIATION...(00z TAFs) High clouds are currently moving through the forecast area with some mid level ceilings around 5000 to 6000 feet. We expect more IFR ceilings later tonight with some LIFR ceilings around the Umpqua Valley as dewpoints and moisture are still very high in that valley. Some showers are also possible near KOTH later tonight. Otherwise, VFR ceilings are likely for the afternoon hours on Friday with mid and high cloud decks. -Smith && .MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, October 29, 2026...Unsettled weather with occasional showers will continue through the weekend. Winds are expected to remain below advisory strength. A series of seasonably weak disturbances will produce the strongest northwest winds in the Washington and northern Oregon offshore waters, which will push fresh north-northwest swell into the southern Oregon waters. This swell, combined with a lower west-northwest swell, will persist through the week, gradually lowering Thursday into Friday. The outlook is for a long period west-northwest swell to build from 2 ft at 21 seconds Sunday afternoon to over 10 ft at 17 seconds around Monday afternoon. && .BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, October 29, 2026...Guidance suggests the possibility of a long period WNW swell building in Sunday and persisting into early next week. Early projections show the swell arriving Sunday afternoon at 2 ft 21 seconds. These high-energy waves will then have the ability to run much farther up the beaches and shorelines than normal and could produce dangerous sneaker waves. The swell will build to over 10 feet at 17 seconds by Monday afternoon, so the sneaker wave risk will be most prominent on Monday. Wave periods drop below 15 seconds Monday night; as a result, the risk of sneaker waves will lessen by Tuesday. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$