658
FXUS66 KMFR 132218
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
218 PM PST Thu Nov 13 2025

.DISCUSSION...A cutoff low lingering near the Pacific coast is
continuing to dictate conditions across the area. Southerly flow
around the cutoff is bringing Advisory-level winds across terrain in
Lake, Klamath, and Modoc counties through tonight. Observations at
Coffee Pot and Summer Lake have included gusts exceeding 50 mph this
afternoon. While wind products for the Shasta Valley and southern
Rogue Valley ended this morning, these areas may also see periodic
gusty winds into this evening. Southerly flow aloft moving upslope
near Mount Shasta will also continue to bring periods of moderate to
heavy rainfall to the Mount Shasta region into this evening.

With the cutoff low moving to the south on Friday, activity across
the area decreases through the morning and should be absent by
Friday evening. Troughing around the cutoff will allow for near-
seasonal temperatures and drier conditions through Sunday morning.
At most, some high to mid-level clouds may drift through the sky to
start the weekend.

A progressive pattern continues next week, with a cold front
approaching the area on Sunday morning. While west side areas have
high chances (50-80%, highest along the coast) to see rainfall by
Sunday afternoon, initial snow levels of 7000-8000 feet will keep
snowfall to the highest peaks and ridgelines. Snow levels drop to
4000-5000 feet through Monday, but with the bulk of the
precipitation in the past snowfall amounts look to be unimpactful.
ECMWF and GFS meteograms keep snowfall at Crater Lake to 2 to 4
inches, with some ambitious outliers predicting up to 6 inches of
snow by Monday night. Sawyers Bar Road west of Etna and east side
terrain may also see a couple inches of snowfall with this front,
with less than an inch for lower elevation east side areas.

Precipitation eases across the area Monday night but a cold air mass
could linger over the area into midweek, bringing temperatures below
seasonal norms. For daytime highs, the Oregon coast is forecast to
see temperatures in the mid to high 50s, with high 40s to low 50s in
west side valleys. East of the Cascades, area basins may see highs
in the low 40s, with cooler temperatures over terrain. Overnight
lows would be in the low 40s at the coast. Most west side valleys
are forecast to be in the mid to low 30s, while the Umpqua Valley
would stay closer to 40 degrees. Areas east of the Cascades could
see lows in the mid teens to low 20s. Any overnight cloud cover may
reduce radiative cooling and allow for a few degrees of warming.

Activity may return late Wednesday into Thursday of next week as a
low pressure system is forecast to approach the area. However,
uncertainty is abundant. Deterministic ECMWF imagery shows a
somewhat glancing blow from the system, with the GFS misses the area
completely----. Looking at ensemble guidance for Mount Shasta City
given possible southerly flow, ECMWF members expect anywhere between
nothing and 2 inches of precipitation. The GFS is more pessimistic,
leaning towards lower amounts but with multiple members forecasting
over an inch of precipitation at Mount Shasta City. The NBM is
similarly uncertain, with equal 25% chances of 2 inches and 12
inches of snow along the Cascades by Thursday afternoon. Overall,
there`s good agreement that something will happen in the middle of
next week but expectations of how much that something is varies
significantly. If this system reaches the area and how it interacts
with any lingering cold air will be a focus of future forecasts. -TAD


&&

.AVIATION...13/18Z TAFs...Guidance suggests that low level wind
shear is generally easing across the area. Significant shear is not
expected for area terminals, but may continue around Mount Shasta
and terrain in Curry County. Low level shear should be absent by
early Friday morning.

At the surface, gusty winds are present at North Bend, Medford, and
Klamath Falls. Meanwhile, sheltering in the Umpqua Valley is
allowing IFR-LIFR conditions to linger over Roseburg. Conditions in
the Umpqua Valley could clear out early this afternoon, with west
side winds easing later in the afternoon. Gusty winds east of the
Cascades continue into the evening. Rainfall continues across the
area, but with the majority of the activity around Mount Shasta.
Even in areas with less overall activity, a passing shower may
locally lower ceilings and visibility as well as obscure elevated
terrain..

With calmer overnight conditions expected, IFR-LIFR conditions could
return to the Umpqua and Rogue Valleys tonight or early Friday
morning. Possible timing is included for the Roseburg and Medford
terminals, although cloud cover and evening showers may reduce
surface heating and affect overnight development. Guidance also
shows periods of lower flight levels at Klamath Falls, but with less
consistency. Any overnight development looks to clear out towards
the end or just beyond this TAF period. -TAD

&&

.MARINE...Updated 130 PM PST Thursday, November 13, 2025...A large
storm located off the NorCal coast will bring moderate to strong
south to southeast winds, to gale force winds in some areas today,
especially from Bandon south. Winds will gradually subside this
afternoon and tonight. Given the winds expected through tonight,
seas will become steep to very steep, highest over the outer waters,
but still quite high all the way to the coast. As such, we`ll
maintain a Hazardous Seas Warning north of Bandon in addition to the
Gale Warning to the south. These hazards go through 10pm tonight.
Seas transition to northwest swell and fresh southwest swell
dominated tonight into Saturday, so a Small Craft Advisory follows
then. The next front is forecast to arrive Sunday with increasing
south winds and seas into Sunday night.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ029>031.

CA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 10 PM PST this evening
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST
     Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ350-
     370.

&&

$$

TAD/JWG