404
FXUS66 KMFR 251757
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
957 AM PST Tue Nov 25 2025

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion Updated.


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.AVIATION...25/18z TAFs...Satellite shows low clouds in the  Rogue,
Illinois,  Applegate and lower Klamath valleys. Conditions are
expected improve to VFR around 20z today through this evening.
Confidence is low on low clouds and fog formation for the interior
westside valleys tonight mainly due to increasing high and mid level
clouds from a frontal boundary to the north. However, guidance is
indicating chances for fog or low clouds in the early morning,
including for valleys in Jacks and Josephine counties. So, have
added patchy fog to the Medford TAF and will continue to monitor
latest models and guidance.


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.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 358 AM PST Tue Nov 25 2025/

DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows low clouds in the Rogue,
Illinois, portions of the Klamath River Valley, and Umpqua Basin.
During the overnight period, low clouds have been the rule which has
prevented fog from forming due to less efficient radiational
cooling. However, it`s possible for patchy areas of fog to form
towards daybreak in the above mentioned areas.

A warm front will move north of the area today. The best chance for
precipitation will be to the north. However, it will be a close call
over the northwest part of the area. Therefore could not rule out
intermittent light rain later this morning and afternoon.

A nearly stationary front will linger north of our forecast area
this afternoon through Wednesday night. At the same time, a weak
dirty ridge will move into the area. This weak ridge will be enough
to keep the front north of the area. However, as is usual the NBM is
too high and too far south with the extent of the precipitation.
This despite the fact, the operational models, SPC high res radar
reflectivity and all of the individual ensemble members suggest the
bulk of the precipitation will remain north, with not much more than
intermittent light rain at times over northern Douglas and Coos
County. These areas will be on the cusp of the southern end of the
precipitation. Even though we have a chance of precip over the
northwest part of the forecast area during this time, odds are it
will remain dry in these areas as well.

It wont` be until Thanksgiving Day when a front followed by an upper
trough will move into the area that we actually get a chance of
precipitation, mainly along and west of the Cascades

After Thursday, the general consensus among the operational models
and ensembles show an upper trough dropping in from the north as an
upper ridge builds in the Gulf of Alaska. If nothing else, this
could usher in a colder air mass Friday into the start of next week.
The question will be the trajectory of the upper trough. The
operational models are in pretty good agreement into early next week.
The ECMWF, GFS ensemble means and clusters show similar solutions
with the upper trough dropping south over land with little or no
over water trajectory. This solution typically leads to dry and
colder weather. However a small percentage of the individual
ensemble members show limited precipitation Saturday.

This is still a ways out, therefore details could change in the
coming days, so stay tuned for the latest updates. -Petrucelli

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PST Tuesday, November 25, 2025...Relatively
calmer conditions through Wednesday. While a slight uptick in south
winds is expected this afternoon, we are expecting to remain below
advisory levels.

A low pressure system is expected to enter the region Wednesday
night resulting in hazardous conditions due to a combination of a
fresh swell and wind-driven seas. At this time, we are expecting
solid advisory level steep seas across all waters, but isolated
areas of very steep seas are possible across our waters north of
Cape Blanco. These conditions are possible Wednesday night through
Friday morning. Rain showers are also likely over the waters
Thursday.

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.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

&&

$$