494
FXUS66 KMFR 261731
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1030 AM PDT Sun May 26 2024

...Updated AVIATION Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...Skies are clear over most of the forecast area. The
only exception is for marine stratus over portions of the
Coquille Basin and even then that is burning off rather quickly
and it should clear out there withing the hour. Dry weather
continues today with warmer afternoon temperatures. Changes were
made to remove any mention of fog since there is no evidence of
fog and some adjustments were made to the sky cover to reflect
the latest satellite image and expected sky cover for the
afternoon.
-Petrucelli


&&

.AVIATION...26/18Z TAFs...High pressure will continue to bring
stable, clear conditions through the TAF period. Winds will pick up
in the afternoon and will calm overnight. -TAD


&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 AM Sunday, May 26, 2024...Except for some
locally gusty winds (15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt) south of Cape
Blanco within 20 nm of shore, relatively light winds and seas are
expected through Tuesday. Look for increasing north winds and seas
on Wednesday and Thursday with conditions hazardous to small craft
likely for all areas by Thursday and a potential for gales south of
Gold Beach. Current model forecasts support a 50-90% chance for
gales south of Cape Blanco on Thursday, highest south of Gold Beach.
 Gusty winds and elevated seas may continue into Friday, then are
expected to lower Friday night into Saturday. -CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 322 AM PDT Sun May 26 2024/

DISCUSSION...Temperatures will warm up today with high pressure
building over the region. We`re currently looking at a 10 degree
warm up across most locations. High temperatures will be warmer than
average for this time of year as highs rise into the mid 80`s in
valleys west of the Cascades. This is really the main theme for
Sunday as the probability of precipitation is essentially zero with
mostly clear skies across the forecast area. Temperatures are also
too cool for a real heat risk. Perhaps the main risk here is cold
water safety during the holiday weekend as people recreating near
cooler rivers are at higher risk of cold water shock. Otherwise,
pretty quiet weather for Sunday

As for Memorial day, not much will change except for a deep upper
level wave moving towards the Pacific Northwest. This will allow for
some deeper synoptic lift and a low threat of thunderstorms east of
the Cascades on Monday evening. Model BUFR soundings show a deep
inverted V sounding with some convective available potential energy
in Lake County. Some of these thunderstorms could be dry, although
it`s not the deepest dry boundary layer we`ve seen in our forecast
area. One can see some of the deterministic models initiating
convection on Monday evening. The probability of cloud to ground
lightning is about 10 to 15 percent with 20 miles of locations in
Lake County. Its worth noting models are picking up on the threat of
thunderstorms in western Siskiyou County as well around the Trinity
Horn.

The axis of the previously mentioned upper level wave will come
onshore sometime around Tuesday afternoon or evening. As a result,
the probability of precipitation will increase over some sections of
the forecast area around Douglas County and the high central
Cascades in Douglas and Klamath counties. It appears a cold front
will accompany this wave and temperatures should trend a few degrees
cooler on Wednesday. We`ll also have to keep an eye out on winds
east of the Cascades on Wednesday evening as there could be a strong
west to east pressure gradient developing on Wednesday evening.

As for Thursday and Friday, guidance has started to turn drier
compared to the forecast yesterday at this time. It seems ensembles
are catching onto a ridge building in briefly with highs again
testing the mid to upper 80`s west of the Cascades by Friday. A
short wave or perhaps another deeper wave will likely move into the
Pacific Northwest by sometime this upcoming weekend.
This will result in a 10 to 20 percent chance of precipitation for
most of Sunday and perhaps a few showers in the Cascades Saturday
evening.

-Smith

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

&&

$$