598
FXUS66 KMFR 290555
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1055 PM PDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Cool temperatures and very slight chances for activity (limited
  to Coos and Douglas counties) continue through the rest of the
  week.

* Precipitation chances are trending upward on Saturday afternoon
  evening, although overall chances remain slight to moderate
  (10-60%). Forecast amounts are light. Snow showers would be
  possible east of the Cascades, but not enough to bring
  significant accumulation.

* Activity eases on Sunday, with a warming trend on Monday into
  midweek. Model guidance diverges beyond next Wednesday.



&&
.DISCUSSION.../Issued 247 PM PDT Wed Oct 28 2026/ North-to-
northwest flow around a low pressure system drifting past
Vancouver Island will keep cool temperatures and periods of cloudy
skies in the forecast through the rest of the week and some
portion of the weekend. This system keeps enough distance from the
area to limit slight shower chances (5-15%) to Coos and Douglas
counties through the rest of the week.

Over the weekend, current imagery shows the low weakening and its
energy dropping south into a trough that would pass over the area.
In this outcome, rain showers are possible on Saturday afternoon and
evening. Current chances remain slight to moderate at most, with 20-
40% chances west of the Cascades and 40-60% chances to the east.
Forecast precipitation is measured in the hundreths for lower
elevation areas. With cold air lingering east of the Cascades, a few
stray snow showers are possible but there would not be significant
accumulation. The behavior of this trough may impact holiday
clothing decisions so stay tuned!

Additionally, this trough may cool overnight lows in
the Umpqua Valley enough to bring frost/freeze concerns. Current
forecasting borders product thresholds and a better understanding
of this trough`s behavior as well as expected cloud cover will help
to guide issuance decisions.

Activity would ease on early Sunday morning as the trough pushes
east with an upper ridge building behind it and guiding the weather
to start next week. This feature would warm temperatures through at
least midweek, with daytime highs reaching 5 to 10 degrees above
seasonal norms. The coast could see daytime highs in the low 60s
while west side valleys could reach the mid to high 60s. Farther
east, daytime highs are in the mid to high 50s. While some
guidance is still showing 10-20% precipitation chances on Monday
or Tuesday, there`s currently nothing in ensemble imagery to
support these chances.

Beyond Wednesday, there`s some divergence in model behavior. In
general, active weather looks to return towards the end of the week.
The timing and behavior varies in long-term guidance, but with
deterministic imagery showing activity approaching from the west or
southwest winter behavior would not be a concern. -TAD


&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z TAFs...IFR ceilings are likely around the Umpqua
valley and closer to the coast later tonight. Fog is also possible
given the current dew point depressions in some of the valleys west
of the Cascades. These lower ceilings should burn off by the late
morning hours with VFR ceilings most likely by Thursday afternoon
and evening.

-Smith


&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Wednesday, October 28, 2026...Unsettled
weather with occasional showers will continue through the week.
Winds are expected to remain below advisory strength. A series of
seasonably weak disturbances will produce the strongest northwest
winds in the Washington and northern Oregon offshore waters, which
will push fresh north-northwest swell into the southern Oregon
waters. This swell, combined with a lower west-northwest swell, will
persist through the week, gradually lowering Thursday into Friday.
The outlook is for a long period west-northwest swell to build from
2 ft at 21 seconds Sunday afternoon to 6-9 ft at 17 seconds around
Monday afternoon.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

&&

$$