945
FXUS66 KMFR 200537
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
937 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

.DISCUSSION...Updated Aviation section...

&&

.AVIATION...20/06z TAFs...The front is making its way onshore and is
pushing rain, MVFR ceilings, and terrain obscurations into nearly
all areas west of the Cascades. These will spread to the East Side
overnight, and here and over the mountains, some snow will be
possible due to freezing levels dropping to around 4000 feet
overnight.

As the front moves inland, convective showers will follow and with
an unstable atmosphere, should allow ceilings to improve to VFR
early Thursday morning. In the wake of the front, there`s some
indications suggesting precipitation will end later tonight in
portions of the interior westside valleys resulting stable
conditions with low clouds and fog at the Medford and possibly
Roseburg terminals. All areas should improve to VFR by afternoon.
-Petrucelli/BPN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 847 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025/

DISCUSSION...Radar is showing light showers moving through,
mainly near and west of the Cascades. Some rain is falling in the
Rogue Valley, into eastern Douglas County, and along the coast.
Snow levels around 6,000`-6,500` will fall to 4,000`-4,500`
tonight. The forecast is still on track to see most of the
precipitation between now and 7 AM. Winds will shift to the north
through the day tomorrow, and will be elevated on ridgetops. After
Thursday, drier conditions return inland for a few days. -9

MARINE...Updated 800 PM PST Wednesday, November 19, 2025...A
frontal system will move onshore a bit later this evening, with
gusty south winds and steep wind-driven seas expected along and
ahead of it.

Behind the front, winds diminish and swing to the north, then large
long period swell arrives Thursday afternoon and night. This will
result in continued steep seas. Guidance is showing the swell
peaking in the 15-18 foot range at 15 seconds Thursday afternoon
through Thursday night. Seas will remain steep through at least
Friday. Then, another west-northwest swell is expected to build into
the waters Saturday with seas of 10 to 15 feet at 15 seconds. Steep,
elevated seas at or above 10 feet may persist Sunday and Monday.

BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...Updated 800 PM PST Wednesday, November
19, 2025...Guidance is showing a long period swell arriving Thursday
morning and persisting through Friday morning. With swells peaking
in the 16-19 foot range (15 sec period) Thursday evening, this will
result in 20-24 foot breaking waves in the surf zone. A high surf
advisory has been issued. Beaches and jetties will be hazardous
areas, and some coastal erosion is possible. -Spilde/BPN

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 233 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025/

DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows a persistent low cloud deck in
most of Lake, portions of Klamath County, Modoc, and southern
Siskiyou County, including Mount Shasta City. These areas may not
break out at all today. Meanwhile, low clouds have burned off in the
Umpqua Basin, Illinois and Rogue Valley. High and mid level clouds
are increasing ahead of an approaching front. This will only thicken
up more during the afternoon and early evening.

There`s good agreement with the timing of the next front with
precipitation arriving at the coast late this afternoon, then moving
inland this evening and tonight. Most of the precipitation will be
along and just behind the front, then precipitation rates will drop
off as the upper trough moves in behind the front with post frontal
showers. Snow tonight into tomorrow morning is- expected to be
confined to the mountains. Even then 24 hour snowfall accumulation
will be 1-2 inches along the Cascades and around Mount Ashland and
less than an inch over the higher terrain east of the Cascades.
Meanwhile snowfall amounts will be higher at Mount Shasta Ski area.

Thursday, the upper low will split and weakens, with precipitation
diminishing during the day Thursday will diminish. Most hours and
locations in Oregon could end up dry Thursday afternoon, but will
tend to linger longer in Northern California.

The upper low will move south into California Thursday night with
dry weather likely. However, low level moisture from Wednesday night
and Thursday morning precipitation will be high, thus setting the
table for low clouds and fog again for the interior west
side valleys, and east side valleys.

Friday through the weekend is likely to be dry as upper ridging
nudges in from the west as the cutoff low moves towards southern
California. The upper flow will likely remain westerly with the
ridge remaining over the area Saturday through Sunday. This will
likely keep the storm track farther north, this keeping our area
dry. There`s good agreement among the operational models with the
overall pattern this weekend. The operational models, the majority
of the individual ECMWF, and all of the GFS ensemble means show no
precipitation in our area Sunday. Although the extreme northwest
part of the forecast area could be a bit of a grey area late Sunday
afternoon, odds are it will remain dry. Additionally, the clusters
are also in good agreement into Sunday with upper ridging over our
area and the storm track farther north. As is typical, the NBM
solution for the weekend is too high, too far south, and inland,
especially given the above mentioned. So while we have a slight
chance to chance pops in the forecast for some locations Sunday, the
reality is we`ll end up dry.

Now it won`t be until Sunday night into Monday morning where a weak
upper trough will swing north of the area and this will send a
weakening front into our area. The front will weaken as it moves
through the area Monday, therefore it`s possible most of the
precipitation (and it will be light) will be in the morning with
most areas dry Monday afternoon.

A cooler and drier airmass will follow Monday night and could
possibly last into the peak travel day for the Thanksgiving Holiday
weekend. However a small majority of the individual ensemble members
cast some doubt on Wednesday with precipitation moving into the
area. -Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday for
     ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST Friday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$