385
FXUS66 KMFR 012355
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
455 PM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.DISCUSSION...Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.


&&

.AVIATION...02/00Z TAFs..VFR continues this evening area wide, with
just some high clouds streaming by to the north. Expect VFR to
prevail in most areas for the next 24 hours. However, LIFR
conditions will return along the coast north of Cape Blanco and
south of Gold Beach tonight into Friday morning. Cloud cover should
be less extensive in the Umpqua Basin tonight, but MVFR ceilings
could impact the Roseburg terminal around sunrise again Friday
morning. -Spilde


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 206 PM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Low impact weather expected through the forecast period.

* Warm and dry conditions are expected across northern California
  and southern Oregon through the 7-day forecast period.

* Temperatures peak on Saturday and Sunday at 10 to 15 degrees
  above normal, with chances for more seasonal temperatures
  towards the end of next week.

DISCUSSION...

An upper level ridge remains the dominant feature across the
region, supporting a continued period of warm and dry August-like
weather across southern Oregon and northern California. The
ridge will maintain strong subsidence and mostly clear skies
through the remainder of the week, with temperatures running well
above normal across the West Side valleys. There could be some
patchy areas of fog that redevelop in the lower river valleys of
the Coquille/Umpqua Basins overnight tonight. High pressure
gradually settles over the Desert Southwest Friday, with our area
remaining on the northern periphery of this feature underneath
nearly zonal flow aloft. High temperatures will remain elevated
through the weekend, with the warmest and driest conditions
expected on Saturday and Sunday as the ridge strengthens and
expands northward. Current guidance suggests highs in the low to
mid 90s will be common across the West Side valleys during this
period. Glancing at records across the region for 10/3 - 10/5,
it`s quite likely that afternoon high temperatures will approach
or challenge record highs across the region.

The dry pattern will continue to support low afternoon relative
humidities, particularly across the valleys east of the Cascades
and in the southern Oregon/northern California interior. Some of
the driest locations will see RH values fall into the teens, while
West Side valleys generally remain in the 20-40 percent range.
Despite the dryness, overnight recoveries remain generally
favorable across lower elevations, which should help moderate the
overall fire-weather threat. Recoveries will trend lower on
exposed peaks and ridgelines as easterly flow develops toward the
end of the week and into the weekend. Winds will generally be
light with typical diurnal wind directions. Winds are expected to
be well below critical thresholds for Fire Weather concerns.

Looking ahead, the ridge remains in place early next week,
although a weak low pressure system will approach from the west
and dampen the ridge over the region. Overall, the pattern stays
predominantly dry, with subtly cooler afternoon temperatures for
early next week as the ridge weakens in response to the
aforementioned low pressure system. The upper level ridge will
rebound quickly by mid week however, with long term guidance
showing this ridge sticking through next week, which will
maintain above normal temperatures and dry conditions through
then. Warm temperatures that stay short of summer highs make
outdoor activities appealing but anticipated conditions will
bring summer like dryness. Dry grasses and leaves are still
present in many areas. Please be cautious if you choose to do
anything that may create a spark.

AVIATION...01/18Z TAFs..VFR prevails across the region, with the
exception of MVFR ceilings in the Umpqua Basin. This will improve to
VFR by 20z. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for
most areas. Expect the return of LIFR conditions along the coast
north of Cape Blanco and south of Gold Beach tonight into Friday
morning. Cloud cover should be less extensive in the Umpqua Basin
tonight, but MVFR ceilings could impact the Roseburg terminal around
sunrise again Friday morning.

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Thursday, October 01, 2026...As the
thermal trough expands northward, steep seas will spread north to
around Coos Bay today, with very steep seas persisting south of Gold
Beach through tonight. Winds ease some Friday, so conditions will
improve north of Cape Blanco but steep seas will persist  southward
into the weekend. As the thermal trough moves inland over the
weekend, expect conditions to improve some, especially for the inner
waters, though gusty north winds and steep seas are likely to be
present at times well into next week.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday
     for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$