621
FXUS66 KMFR 040602
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1002 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

...Updated the Aviation and Marine Sections...

.AVIATION (06Z TAFs)...Residual low level moisture is producing
areas of mainly MVFR, and patchy IFR in southern Siskiyou County and
east of the Cascades. This stratus will expand in coverage through
sunrise. Meantime, patchy IFR is also developing in the Umpqua
Valley. LIFR is expected in southwest Oregon valleys, including
Medford, Grants Pass and Roseburg, from around 09Z late tonight
through 18Z Wednesday morning. These valley conditions will improve
to VFR for the late morning and afternoon. The next cold front will
reach the coast late Wednesday afternoon with light rain and patches
of MVFR developing. Light rain and patchy MVFR will then extend into
Douglas County, including Roseburg, during Wednesday evening.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 730 PM PST Tuesday, November 3, 2026...Long
period west-northwest swell combined with a shorter period southwest
swell will maintain elevated steep seas under light winds through
tonight. Conditions briefly improve on Wednesday, though winds will
turn southerly and increase some in the afternoon. Winds are likely
to remain below advisory, but several long period swell trains will
pass through the waters over the remainder of the week and into the
weekend. Steep swell dominated seas return to all areas by late
Wednesday night and are likely to persist through the weekend. Seas
are forecast to reach a peak Friday night into Saturday at around
12 to 15 feet at 15 to 16 seconds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 456 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Overall, this is a low impact forecast over the next 7 days

* Seasonable temperatures around normal for this time of year
  expected through much of the week edging above normal second
  half of the week

* Light rainfall today and tomorrow but amounts are generally
  under a tenth of an inch

* Rainfall amounts edge slightly higher Sat/Sat night with
  chances mainly along/near the coast and the Umpqua Basin

* A potentially more active pattern may unfold middle parts of
  next week bringing higher rainfall, snowfall, and strong winds

DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery depicts a low pressure center moving over
northern parts of California. This will bring light rainfall to
southern portions of the forecast area, including northern
California. Not expecting any noteworthy impacts from this system.
The southerly flow is bringing strong wind speeds over parts of
northern California this afternoon, especially the Shasta Valley
where Weed has shown observations of 20-25 mph gusting to around
30-35 mph. This low pressure system moves out of the region
tonight. H5 heights increase in its wake, but the base of a trough
extending down from the Gulf of Alaska will bring another chance
for light rainfall late Wednesday afternoon and evening. This
chacnes are mainly for the coast and areas north of the Umpqua
divide. The probability of 0.10" or greater of rainfall is only
around 40%-50% for any given 6-hr time period Wed/Wed night.
Again, not expecting much rainfall this week with any of these
systems. On Saturday, probabilities are generally the same or
slightly less, but some ensembles are showing higher amounts
along/near the coast upwards near half an inch. In otherwords,
there is more uncertatinty for Saturday rainfall amounts, but the
general trend is showing those higher amounts may be an outlier.

Temperatures the second half of the week are trending upward,
with most locations indicating above normal temperautres,
potentially around 70 for many westside areas on Saturday.

Looking ahead, there is the potential for more impactful weather
around Veteran`s Day which could bring strong winds, increased
rainfall amounts, and potential snowfall for higher elevations
above 4500 ft. This is of course very far in the future, and a lot
can change, but at this time we are watching this timeframe for
potential impactful weather. Signs are also pointing at a
potential weak atmospheric river event middle of next week. It
should be noted this is not a slam dunk scenario, and uncertainty
remains given how far out in the future this system is.

-Guerrero

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this
     evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$