688
FXUS66 KMFR 260445
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
945 PM PDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.DISCUSSION...The current forecast remains on track. A few
isolated thunderstorms popped up this afternoon, but most
lightning activity stayed east of the CWA. Widespread showers
continue tonight around a low pressure system passing over
central California, with Coos and Curry counties seeing less
activity given the easterly flow pattern.

Showers look to continue into Saturday morning. Activity west of
the Cascades will start to ease on Saturday afternoon. East of the
Cascades, thunderstorm chances have been adjusted slightly to
include Modoc and eastern Siskiyou counties for late Saturday
afternoon into Saturday evening. Chances are still slight (~15%)
at the highest, with updated guidance showing an expanded area for
possible thunderstorms. Rain showers east of the Cascades are
forecast to continue into early Sunday morning.

Please see the previous discussion for more details on the long-
term forecast. -TAD

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z TAFs...Widespread showers mainly east of the I-5
corridor with isolated thunderstorms will gradually move from east
to west this afternoon, gradually pivoting and moving from northeast
to southwest this evening and overnight. This is resulting in some
low end VFR conditions mixed with MVFR and widespread terrain
obscurations. MVFR conditions are likely to become more widespread
this evening and overnight as shower activity continues. The
thunderstorm potential should wane after sunset, and in the meantime
an isolated thunderstorm could impact the Medford and Klamath Falls
terminals. Will monitor and update as needed.

For areas west of the I-5 corridor and along the coast, a mix of
MVFR/IFR conditions prevail. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
should remain east of these areas, but some light rain will be
possible in the Umpqua Basin and Illinois Valley. IFR/LIFR
conditions are expected along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin
overnight. Conditions should improve to at least MVFR Saturday
morning. /BR-y

&&

.MARINE...Updated 235 PM Friday, April 25, 2025... Northerly winds
will increase tonight and steep short period waves will develop
Saturday causing conditions hazardous to small craft. Steep seas
persist Saturday night despite winds easing a bit. A thermal trough
maintains northerly winds and steep seas, highest south of Cape
Blanco Sunday into much of next week, with peak winds and waves in
the afternoons and evenings. -Spilde


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 239 PM PDT Fri Apr 25 2025/

DISCUSSION...Showers are spreading across Klamath and Lake
counties. there are also a few cells developing near the
California/Oregon border with a small thunderstorm at the
Klamath/Jackson County border. Temperatures are facing a 5-10
degree cooldown compared to yesterday in valleys this afternoon
with temperatures only reaching the low/mid-60s at the warmest.

The upper low is starting to move into the west coast to the south
into California. The shower activity will continue moving in from
the south today with more of it reaching areas east of the Cascades.
These will become more widespread tonight as it continues through
portions of Southern Oregon and into areas west of the Cascades.
Later this afternoon there is a 20-30% probability to see some
thunder for parts of Jackson and Klamath counties. The best chance
for thunder will be in eastern Lake County with the HREF
proposing a 30-40% probability this evening.

Saturday afternoon convection will also be focused on portions of
Lake County, so there is a 15-25% probability added for that area
with forecast CAPEs 100-250 J/kg. Snow levels will be falling to
around 6,000-6,500 feet Saturday afternoon, meaning that higher
elevations including Crater Lake and the Warner Mountains in Modoc
County will have some snow. Otherwise, later Saturday afternoon will
have rain showers that focus on areas in Siskiyou County and up
through Klamath and Lake counties.

Ensembles are favoring ridging to set into the PNW early next week,
and dry conditions are favored through the first half of the work
week. A warm up will be felt with highs back to normal/slightly
above normal by Monday. The warming will continue through the week
with current probabilities for 80 degrees in west side valleys
reaching 70-90% next Thursday. -Hermansen

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 5
     AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$