487
FXUS66 KMFR 072330
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
430 PM PDT Tue Oct 7 2025

...Updated AVIATION discussion for 00Z TAFs...

.DISCUSSION...Today is the last day with some temperatures 5-10
degrees above normal before a front moves through. Highs are
warming this afternoon and are expected to reach the 70s for the
coast, upper 70s and low 80s for inland areas west of the
Cascades, and 60s to low 70s for spots east. Tonight, a marine
push comes in and will bring cloudier skies for Coos County and
into northwestern Douglas County.

The cold front is forecast to begin reaching the coast Wednesday
afternoon, with a 30-50% chance of showers. Breezy southwest winds
will be possible east of the Cascades in the afternoon as well. 700
mb winds show that east side locations could see gusts near 20 to 30
kt and Thursday afternoon could be stronger at 30-40 kt.

The better chance for rain will be as the upper trough continues
swinging southward towards the weekend. There are still differences
for the start time and locations of the rain, but it is forecast to
begin Friday with most of the rain falling then. Through the day
Friday, western Siskiyou County and the Curry County coast is
forecast to receive 0.75"-1.25", with 0.25"-0.50" for inland areas
west of the Cascades and less than a quarter of an inch east. The EC
is the wetter solution and is keeping rain in the forecast through
early next week. There has been a delay in the end of the rain, and
it is looking like drier conditions could return Wednesday. The EC
keeps the upper low around the NW US Wednesday through Friday next
week while the GFS continues its track south, so this will be an
area to review in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...08/00Z TAFs...Clear skies and visibilities are
supporting persisting VFR levels across the area. Marine stratus
looks to develop along the Oregon coast late tonight into Wednesday
morning. Guidance is split on levels, but periods of MVFR to IFR
ceilings are generally expected. Ceilings may also develop into the
Umpqua Valley overnight, but as of right now look to stay at VFR
levels if they do build up. Any development should clear out late
Wednesday morning. Other areas look to remain at VFR levels with
normal diurnal winds. -TAD

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Tuesday, October 7, 2025...North
winds and steep seas are expected to return to all areas early this
evening and continue through Wednesday night before winds weaken and
turn southerly Thursday morning. Conditions will be borderline in
terms of advisory level winds and seas, but enough to maintain the
Small Craft Advisory this evening through Wednesday night. A weak
front will move through early Thursday followed by an increase of
northwest swell dominated seas. With the weakening of north winds,
and seas transitioning to swell dominated, seas will become less
steep and less hazardous to small craft.

South winds increase Thursday night and may reach the low end of
advisory strength through Friday night as low pressure lingers
offshore. The low is expected to move inland over the weekend with
marine winds becoming northerly and increasing into early next week.
-Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$