524
FXUS66 KMFR 252059
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
159 PM PDT Sat May 25 2024

.DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows cloud cover gradually
diminishing, and will end up partly cloudy later in the afternoon.
Along and north of the Umpqua Divide, clouds cover is slower to break
up due to the onshore flow, and it may not be until early this
evening before it clears out.

Week upper ridging builds in tonight into Sunday resulting in
continued dry weather with warmer afternoon temperatures for the
interior. Winds Sunday afternoon will be light , other than the
typical light afternoon breezes for the interior westside valleys.

Monday, weak upper ridging will move east and a southwest flow will
set up. There`s some hints at weak instability in northeast Lake
County late Monday afternoon and early Monday evening with increasing
mid level moisture. However the trigger is weak or non existent,
thus it may end up being one of those days where we have cumulus
buildups in that area later in the afternoon, but that`s it.
Afternoon temperatures will trend higher for the interior.

it will remain dry Monday night with milder overnight low
temperatures due to increasing clouds ahead ofthe next upper trough
and front. -Petrucelli

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...Models and ensembles continue to show an
upper level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest Monday night
and Tuesday. This will result in cooler temperatures (near seasonal
norms), breezy to gusty afternoon/evening winds along with chances
for showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for showers is over
Coos and Douglas counties. East of the Cascades, models indicate
sufficient moisture and instability to support a slight chance for
thunderstorms (15-20%). This is mainly across eastern Siskiyou,
southeast Klamath and Lake Counties. This upper trough is forecast
to remain over the area on Wednesday, with continued mild
temperatures, breezy/gusty afternoon winds and a slight chance for
showers, mainly northern Coos and northern Douglas counties.   There
is moderate agreement (50% of the ensembles) that the upper trough
will begin to move eastward Wednesday night into Thursday, with a
high pressure ridge building into the area late Thursday into
Friday. If the ridge moves overhead Thursday and Friday, this would
a warming trend and dry weather. Additionally, models indicate a
surface thermal trough developing along the coast late Wednesday,
then peaking Thursday into Friday. This is expected to result in
gusty north to northeast winds along the coast and over the coastal
mountains. -CC


&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z TAFs...Under weak high pressure, VFR weather
across all terminals is expected through the next 30 hours. Broken
to overcast decks just above MVFR across the coast north of Cape
Blanco and throughout the Umpqua should scatter out through the late
afternoon and evening. Stavish


&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 PM Saturday, May 25, 2024...Gusty north
winds and steep seas will linger this afternoon and evening for
areas south of Cape Blanco. Aside from some locally gusty winds
nearshore south of Cape Blanco, high pressure will maintain benign
marine conditions thereafter through Tuesday. Look for increasing
north winds and seas on Wednesday and Thursday. Stavish

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday
     for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$