846
FXUS66 KMFR 020851
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
151 AM PDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Temperatures trend hotter Saturday and Sunday, with high
  temperatures expected to be 10 to 20 degrees above normal.

* Very warm and dry conditions this weekend will bring some
  elevated fire weather concerns due to near summer-like dryness,
  but critical fire weather conditions are not expected.

* A weak upper level disturbance Sunday night into Monday will
  bring a very low chance (5%) for showers or thunderstorms for
  Modoc County.

* Very warm temperatures persist through the middle of next week.
  More seasonal temperatures are expected towards the end of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Warm and dry continues will continue across inland
areas today. Along the coast, a marine layer will result in low
clouds this morning with partial clearing in the afternoon, before
returning Friday night.

This weekend, the high pressure ridge strengthens over the
region, with temperatures trending warmer. High temperatures are
expected to peak Saturday and Sunday (10 to 20 degrees above
normal) then remain very warm into early to middle of next week.

The very warm and dry pattern this weekend will bring a potential
for some elevated fire weather concerns, especially across
northern California and east of the Cascades. However, critical
conditions are not likely. A surface thermal trough along the
coast will result in generally light easterly flow across the
ridges through Sunday morning. Easterly winds combined with a
subsidence inversion will result in overnight humidities trending
lower across the upper slopes and ridges. These conditions peak
Saturday night and Sunday with moderate to poor overnight/morning
recoveries over the ridges. Winds are expected to be light though
and remain below critical levels for fire weather conditions.
Additionally, very warm daytime temperatures and dry afternoon
humidities are expected across inland areas through this weekend.
Afternoon humidities for West Side valleys generally remain in the
20-35 percent range while east side areas and northern California
valleys will see low humidities in the teens. Afternoon winds
will be generally light though. Overnight recoveries are also
expected to be favorable across valleys, which should help
moderate the overall fire-weather threat. Warm temperatures that
stay short of summer highs make outdoor activities appealing but
anticipated conditions will bring summer like dryness. Dry grasses
and leaves are still present in many areas. Please be cautious if
you choose to do anything that may create a spark.

The ridge weakens slightly late Sunday evening into Monday
morning, as a weak shortwave trough moves into northern
California from the southwest. This will bring some mid level
moisture and weak instability with a very low chance (5%) for
showers or isolated thunderstorms in Modoc County. This
disturbance shifts east of the area Monday afternoon.

A flat upper level ridge remains over the region through much of
next week, with above normal temperatures (10 to 15 degrees above
seasonal norms) and dry weather expected across the area. Towards
the end of next week, models and ensembles support a trough
moving into the region from the northwest. With this pattern,
expect temperatures to trend lower (near seasonal norms).


&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAFs)...

Conditions are going to deteriorate along the coast in the next few
hours with LIFR/IFR conditions (ceiling & vis) persisting through
much of this cycle. It will also be breezy along the coast this
afternoon. A different story is anticipated for inland sites with
VFR conditions and overall light wind speeds. There will be high
clouds around through this cycle as well.

-Guerrero

&&

.MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Thursday, October 01, 2026...With a
thermal trough along the coast, steep seas will persist through
early Friday morning as far north as Coos Bay, with very steep
seas south of Gold Beach. Winds ease some Friday, so conditions
will improve north of Cape Blanco, but steep seas will persist
southward through Saturday night. As the thermal trough moves
inland late Saturday and Sunday, expect conditions to improve
some, especially for the inner waters. However, gusty north winds
and steep seas may be present at times into next week.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday
     for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for
     PZZ350-370.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT early this morning for
     PZZ356-376.

&&

$$