280
FXUS66 KMFR 302052
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
152 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Low impact weather expected through the forecast period.

* Temperatures trend warmer through the week, peaking around 10-15
  degrees above normal over the weekend.

* Slight chance of thunderstorms east of the Cascades on Sunday.

* No signal for widespread precipitation for the next 7-10 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The upper level pattern will largely be ridge
dominated through the week and into the weekend. Skies are clear
across the region this afternoon, and with a strengthening thermal
trough along the coast, skies should remain clear for the area even
through tonight. Offshore flow should keep the marine layer from
redeveloping tonight, but there could be some patchy areas of fog in
the lower river valleys of the Coquille/Umpqua Basins. High
temperatures trend a few degrees warmer today, and the Chetco Effect
will bring warm temperatures to the Brookings area this afternoon.

High pressure lingers off the California coast today, then gradually
shifts inland Thursday and eventually settles over the Desert
Southwest by the weekend. For the remainder of the week, our area
will remain on the northern periphery of this high pressure with
zonal flow aloft. Heights will subtly build through the week,
bringing a warming trend in afternoon temperatures. High
temperatures will hover around 5-10 degrees above normal through the
rest of the week, which brings mid-upper 80s for the West Side and
upper 70s/low 80s for the East.

Weak low pressure approaches the area over the weekend. As this
happens, the ridge axis becomes positively tilted over the region
Saturday, and high temperatures peak over the weekend, trending
higher by around another 5 degrees. This pushes highs in the lower
90s for the West Side and mid 80s for the East. These high
temperatures are quite warm for this time of year, and glancing at
records across the region for 10/3-10/5, we`re certainly in the
realm of record setting territory. Even if we aren`t breaking
records, it`s looking like temperatures could be within a few
degrees of records for those dates. High temperatures peak on
Sunday, then trend cooler by a few degrees on Monday in the wake of
a weak low pressure.

The flow aloft becomes more southerly on Sunday, and the weak low
pressure moves overhead. This could bring a slight chance of
showers/thunderstorms to the area, most likely east of the Cascades.
Current forecast keeps this mention out of the forecast for now, but
the pattern is favorable for thunderstorm development on Sunday if
it pans out. Latest guidance is maintaining these chances across
southern areas, so mainly Modoc and southern Klamath/Lake Counties.

High temperatures trend a few degrees cooler behind this weak low
pressure for the early part of next week, but the upper level ridge
rebounds quickly late Tuesday into Wednesday. Long term guidance is
showing this ridge sticking around through much of next week (week
of Oct 5th), which maintains above normal temperatures and dry
conditions through then.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z TAFs...A mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings from marine
stratus persist in the Umpqua/Coquille Basins and over the marine
waters, with VFR prevailing for inland locations. Marine stratus is
eroding and will clear for all areas between 18z-20z with VFR
prevailing thereafter. VFR will prevail through the TAF period for
just about all areas. Offshore flow should keep the marine layer
from returning tonight. Couldn`t rule out some patchy LIFR
conditions in the deeper river valleys along the coast/Umpqua Basin,
but terminals should remain VFR through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Wednesday, September 29, 2026...A
thermal trough will strengthen along the coast today, then expand
northward on Thursday. Steep seas will persist south of Cape Blanco
today, with very steep seas developing south of Gold Beach and
beyond 5 nm from shore this afternoon/evening. As the thermal trough
expands northward, steep seas will spread north to around Coos Bay
Thursday, with very steep seas persisting through Thursday night.
Winds ease some Friday, but steep seas will persist from Coos Bay
southward. As the thermal trough moves inland over the weekend,
expect conditions to improve some, especially for the inner waters.
Not much change in the overall weather pattern is expected next
week, so gusty north winds and steep seas are likely to be present
well into next week.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday
     for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 11 PM PDT Friday for
     PZZ350-370.

     Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT
     Friday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$