


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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578 FXUS66 KMFR 121330 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 630 AM PDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .DISCUSSION... Cool onshore flow will continue this morning behind this upper level low. Showers will remain in the forecast mainly around Roseburg and Coos Bay for this morning before the next upper level wave approaches later this evening. Rain probabilities will gradually increase into tonight and peak close to 100 percent for many locations west of the Cascades. This low will likely produce wetting rain west of the Cascades with widespread 0.25 to 0.5 inches of accumulating precipitation. Higher totals up to 1 inch of precipitation are expected in the higher Cascades, although that will fall as snow with 4500 foot to 5000 foot snow levels through the event. Crater Lake will get a good shot of snow here with ensemble data suggesting 6 inches is pretty likely with up to 8 inches also pretty reasonable. Most of that is falling around 7000 feet and just at Crater Lake, so we opted to stay away from a winter weather advisory. However, if one is considering traveling to Crater Lake, prepare for winter precipitation and some difficult travel conditions. This low will dive down the coast and bring in some unusually cool conditions even for mid October. Snow levels will be around 3700 feet by Monday morning, although snow will struggle to accumulate at that elevation as precipitation mode will turn showery. So the sun should break through between the showers and get some heat on roads and lower surfaces. It`s worth noting the GFS and other deterministic models are showing some weaker easterly winds by Monday afternoon, which should warm and dry us out. In any case, temperatures should hover in the mid to lower 50`s west side and upper 40`s east of the Cascades. Once this low departs the area on Tuesday, we`ll see drier conditions settle into the area on the backside of this low. There is still some vorticity around, so cloud cover should linger in the mid to upper levels, but it will be trending warmer and drier Tuesday onwards. The latest NBM forecast has us revisiting the 70 degree mark here in Medford by Saturday. The NBM 10th percentile forecast has a high of 67, so we`ll definitely be trending warmer towards the end of the week. -Smith && .AVIATION...12/12Z TAFs... An upper level has departed the region with deep northwesterly flow with a few areas reporting MVFR conditions east of the Cascades. Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions continue this morning under chaotic mixed ceilings. We`ll see the chance of rain increase later this evening into tonight ahead of the next low. There is a good chance it will rain and ceilings should stay within VFR thresholds with periods of lower visibilities under the heavier rain. -Smith && .MARINE...Northwest swell will build over the waters today. Another low will move in later this evening and last into Monday evening. Similar to the last low, it will bring widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Stronger north winds will accompany this system, which will maintain steep seas, especially over the outer waters through Tuesday. Lighter winds and lower seas should return on Wednesday. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-370-376. && $$