529
FXUS66 KMFR 151659
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
959 AM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.DISCUSSION...The aviation and marine discussions have been
updated. The focus for the afternoon package will be on the
details of precipitation chances late Saturday night into early
Monday. Also, the potential for sneaker waves at area beaches
Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning, and also high surf
possibly reaching advisory levels during Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...15/18Z TAFs...Skies are clear at KMFR/Medford and
KLMT/Klamath Falls this morning. But, MVFR and patchy IFR ceilings
linger for most of the coast, and many of the valleys in the area.
These clouds will gradually erode to clear skies today. Onshore flow
overnight is expected to bring IFR marine stratus to coastal areas
after midnight/07Z into Thursday morning. Meantime, valley stratus
is also expected to form in most of the same valleys overnight.
-DW

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 AM PDT Wednesday, October 15, 2025...Steep
seas persist across the outer waters through this afternoon, while
winds and seas diminish into early Thursday. North winds increase
Thursday afternoon into Friday night with steep seas likely building
south of Cape Blanco. Also, a long period swell is expected to build
Friday afternoon into Saturday. Steep seas are likely across the
waters Friday night through Saturday. Very high and steep swell
dominated seas are then likely behind a cold front Sunday afternoon
through Monday night. -DW

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 800 AM PDT Wednesday, October 15,
2025...We`re heading into the time of year where distant storms
generate swells with long periods. These long-period swells harbor
more energy than a typical set of waves and have the ability to run
up much farther on the beaches. Model guidance is showing a long-
period swell (8-10 ft at ~17-19 seconds) arriving Friday afternoon
and lasting through Friday night before decaying. This could pose a
threat for sneaker waves at area beaches. We call them "sneaker
waves" because they aren`t particularly large or even high waves,
but because they exhibit such high energy, they can suddenly wash
over rocks, logs and jetties without much warning. We`ll be
evaluating this potential and a beach hazards statement may be
necessary. -Spilde/DW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 407 AM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025/

DISCUSSION...Satellite shows that low clouds are starting to
develop near the Umpqua and Coquille basins. Otherwise, clear
skies are present. There could be low clouds that develop over
more west side valleys, but for now temperatures will continue
dropping under the clear skies. Temperatures are in the 30s and
40s west side with 30s east now. Some west side valleys, including
the Scott Valley, need to be monitored as they could drop into
frost territory.

Highs this afternoon will be in the 60s for west side and 50s east,
and we can expect similar highs for the next few days. The exception
will be at the Curry County coast as highs in the 60s today will
jump to near 70 tomorrow and remain that way through Saturday.
Tonight will be another time frame to review for frost potential as
clear skies and light winds will once again drop temperatures to at
least the mid-30s in California west side valleys. Try to prepare to
bring potted plants inside if possible. With the temperatures
hovering around frost temperatures this morning, will continue to
see what impacts come from this before issuing any cold weather
products for tonight.

Ridging builds at the start of the weekend and near to slightly
above normal temperatures are forecast Saturday. This will get highs
to the mid-70s in west side valleys and 60s to near 70 elsewhere!
Enjoy it while it lasts because the next day a trough moves in and
brings rain chances with cooler temperatures once again. Snow levels
during that time are forecast to fall to 5,000`-5,500` once again.
The highest confidence lies in the precipitation continuing through
Sunday afternoon. After, there are differences in where the low lies
as it moves east. The GFS keeps the low closer to the area, keeping
rain chances across the area, whereas the EC keeps the low farther
north. For now, the forecast for Monday shows the more northerly
track that keeps precipitation in Southern Oregon, but in the coming
days we may need to add more chances to Northern California. Drier
conditions could return in the middle of next week after the Sunday-
Monday system.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this
     afternoon for PZZ370-376.

&&

$$