472
FXUS66 KMFR 150018
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
518 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026


.DISCUSSION...Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.


&&

.AVIATION...15/00Z TAFs...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening from
Siskiyou Mtns northeastward up the Cascades, but also including
around the Rogue Valley/Medford. While most areas will remain VFR,
visibility and/or ceilings may be locally reduced in the vicinity of
thunderstorms, and gusty outflows of 40 mph could occur in any of
the stronger cells.

Along the coast, marine stratus remains in place or at least will
fill back into any locations that managed to clear briefly late this
afternoon. Expect at least MVFR ceilings, but also local IFR/LIFR.
The stratus will push back into Roseburg overnight, impacting the
terminal with MVFR from 11-19Z before clearing to VFR Saturday
afternoon. -Spilde

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 143 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Seasonable temperatures, dry, and breezy conditions continue to
  be the overall theme going forward

* Isolated thunderstorm chances continue today and again Saturday
  with the main risk being lightning and gusty erratic winds

* Areas of smoke remain possible due to nearby wildfires

DISCUSSION...

The trough pattern over the western CONUS continues today with
this general pattern continuing well into later parts of next week
as southwesterly flow aloft dominates the region. There is now
much better agreement in the upper levels well into later parts of
next week which helps confidence in the overall forecast key
messages.

For today, model guidance and satellite imagery show a shortwave
entering the region. Vorticity maxima is on track to help support
thunderstorm development this afternoon. The best chance will be
for areas around Crater Lake and north through parts of this
evening, and this would include northern Klamath and Lake counties
as well. Similar to yesterday, we could see a cell or two go past
midnight, but this may be more of shower activity versus
thunderstorm activity.

For tomorrow, we should really be confined to areas around Crater
Lake and north. Perhaps eastern parts of Douglas County in the
morning, but the marine layer has been making good pushes
overnight and well into Douglas County. This stable layer may
likely inhibit any thunderstorm activity, but cannot rule out an
isolated thunderstorm Saturday morning before better chances start
in the afternoon. Again, this would be mainly for areas around
Crater Lake and north for the better chances tomorrow afternoon.

Sunday does look like a break in thunderstorm activity, but
chances could return Monday. However, this would be very isolated
again for northern parts of Klamath and Lake counties as our
pattern remains in place. Tuesday and Wednesday we are going to be
on the cusp of high pressure aloft, so it will depend on where
the trough axis ends up. At this time, we do have 5-15% chances
both days for thunderstorms. Thursday there is better agreement on
a closed low developing within the overall trough pattern which
could increase thunderstorm chances in future forecast, but at
this time we only have around 5-15% for eastside areas.

-Guerrero

AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...

Marine stratus remains in place along the coast this morning with
those low clouds continuing into most of the afternoon hours and
pushing back inland this evening. IFR ceilings are most likely
through the remainder of the day and overnight hours.

Inland areas will generally be at VFR levels through the TAF
period. Wildfire smoke may briefly affect visibilities at Medford
through the day depending on fire activity. Thunderstorms are
expected across the region today. Medford(MFR) and Klamath Falls
(KLMT) have a low chance of some storms in the vicinity of the
runway. Thunderstorms shouldn`t be all that strong given the
available convective energy and should diminish by the evening and
overnight hours.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 130 PM PDT Friday, August 14, 2026...Easing
north winds and low seas will continue this afternoon and will
result in sub-advisory conditions. These conditions are expected
to continue through the weekend. Early next week, north winds
could reach advisory strength with areas south of Port Orford
being favored.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

&&

$$

MAS