789
FXUS66 KMFR 201156
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
456 AM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Low impact weather today and through much of the week with dry
  conditions and seasonable temperatures.

* High temperatures peak today at around 5-10 degrees above normal,
  trending cooler through the week.

* Cooler and potentially wetter weather expected for the weekend.
  High temperatures around 5-10 degrees below normal. Best chances
  for precip currently along/west of the Cascades and north of
  OR/CA border.

&&

.Updated AVIATION Discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...20/12Z TAFs...LIFR conditions persist along the coast
and over the coastal waters this morning. Some clearing to the
coast, or even offshore, especially south of Cape Blanco, is
expected today. Stronger north winds are expected this afternoon at
North Bend with gusts to around 25 kt. Brief clearing to VFR is
possible there this afternoon, but areas of MVFR/IFR stratus likely
return quickly this evening as winds ease. In the Umpqua Basin,
MVFR/IFR stratus is develop, and will likely impact Roseburg before
sunrise. It probably follows a similar timing to yesterday in terms
of clearing, breaking out to VFR sometime late this morning or early
afternoon.

The remainder of the area is VFR and will remain that way through
the TAF period with weak diurnal breezes and just some high cirrus
at times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 230 AM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026/

DISCUSSION...Another quiet morning weatherwise. Skies are mostly
clear for inland areas with some patches of high level cirrus
streaming overhead. The marine layer blankets the coastal waters
and inland areas from the Coast Range westward. Some low clouds
will make it into the Umpqua Basin again this morning, then
gradually give way to sun by the afternoon. Clouds along the coast
could peel back to the beaches this afternoon, but cloud
conditions are likely to persist through the day today.

Low impact weather is expected today and through much of the week.
Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures will continue through
Thursday, with a transition to cooler and potentially wetter weather
expected Friday into next weekend. An upper level ridge axis is over
the region this morning with low pressure off the central California
coast. As this low pressure pushes inland today, the ridge axis will
become positively tilted, maintaining another warm day across the
region. High temperatures peak for the valleys west of the Cascades
today. Highs will be a little cooler in the Umpqua Basin/Roseburg
area today due to morning cloud cover.

We`ll see increasing mid-high level clouds later today into Monday
as low pressure continues moving eastward. There`s enough moisture
and instability for some buildups across northern California and
East Side Monday afternoon, but we don`t expect them to amount to
much else. Could be some virga or maybe a stray shower Monday
afternoon, but we don`t expect much change in the sensible weather
from this low pressure besides a slight cool down for the West Side.

Zonal flow settles in behind this low pressure for Tuesday and
Wednesday, with a weak and dry front passing through the region on
Tuesday. Temperatures trend cooler for these days and we`ll see some
slightly "enhanced" afternoon winds on Tuesday, at least compared to
today/Monday. Even still, impacts are expected to be minimal, if
any.

Thursday could be a transition day for the area. Dry conditions will
continue, but the upper level pattern amplifies as broad troughing
over the Gulf of Alaska sags southward and sends a front towards the
region late Thursday or early Friday. Southwest flow ahead of this
front will bring a slight warming trend on Thursday along with an
increase in southwest breezes across the East Side. Current guidance
shows gusts of 25-35 mph possible Thursday afternoon.

Guidance is in fairly good agreement on bringing a front through the
region at some point Friday, with some solutions showing late
Thursday night into Friday morning and others showing early Friday
into Friday night. Regardless of timing, it looks like we`ll be on
the southern end of this front which tends to leave the best chances
for precipitation north of the OR/CA border and along/west of the
Cascades. Current guidance also isn`t overly ambitious with
precipitation amounts either...ranging in the 0.10"-0.25", maybe up
to 0.50" in the Curry County mountains. Temperatures trend about 10
degrees cooler for Friday and remain around 5-10 degrees below
normal through the weekend (low 70s West/upper 60s East) with broad
troughing lingering over the area. Showers could linger along the
coast and into the Umpqua Basin into Saturday, but the remainder of
the area should see dry conditions return (or continue) Saturday and
Sunday.

MARINE...Updated 1230 AM PDT Sunday, September 20, 2026...North
winds will gradually strengthen today into Monday, resulting in
the return of steep seas south of Cape Blanco. As winds strengthen
this afternoon, steep seas are expected to spread northward to
Cape Arago. North winds and wind driven seas are likely to peak
Monday afternoon and evening, with very steep seas and gale force
gusts possible south of Gold Beach. North winds begin to ease on
Tuesday and conditions should improve north of Cape Blanco. Seas
will remain elevated, but less steep as a 5-6 ft northwest swell
moves in. South of Cape Blanco, however, wind gusts could approach
gale force again in the afternoon resulting in another period of
very steep seas. Conditions should improve for all areas for the
latter half of the week as seas become swell dominated due to a
mix of fresh swell and low northwest swell (4-5 ft @ 10 seconds).

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday
     for PZZ356-376.

Hazardous Seas Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
     evening for PZZ356-376.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT
     Monday for PZZ350-370.

&&

$$