968
FXUS66 KMFR 141203
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
503 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Temperatures increase today and Tuesday, but remain just below
  seasonal levels.

* A cutoff low pressure system will bring periods of gusty winds
  as well as slight thunderstorm chances on Wednesday and
  Thursday.

* Temperatures may rise above seasonal norms on Friday, with that
  warmth looking to continue into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A warming trend with generally dry conditions starts
today, an upper ridge over the Pacific will expand and bring warmer
temperatures west of the Cascades today, with cooler temperatures
lingering to the east. While west side highs will rise 10 to 15
degrees from weekend temperatures, these highs will still be about 5
degrees below normal. On Tuesday, daytime highs east of the Cascades
will reach a similar level; warmer than today`s, but still about 5
degrees below typical September temperatures.

Late Tuesday, a shortwave trough approaches the area and deepens,
allowing a cutoff low to develop. While this pattern has been in
place for a couple days, the path of the cutoff is still showing
some variation. This low would bring two main effects. The first
would be periods of gusty winds, which the current path puts over
northern Lake County from late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
These winds don`t represent any hazardous threats, but could cause
local concerns. Additionally, instability with this low in addition
to warmer temperatures could allow for some convective thunderstorm
development. Chances for thunderstorms are present in the afternoon
and evening of Wednesday (10-15%) and Thursday (15-20%). While the
location of these chances also shifts somewhat from one model run to
the next, the Cascades and northern Klamath County have had more
consistent chances although other elevated areas could see a stray
storm. This low is overall fairly dry, but it may be able to draw
monsoonal moisture from the east to the area. This behavior is what
currently supports Thursday`s higher chances. Any changes to this
outcome could change those chances. This low will help to cool east
side areas through the middle of the week, with west side areas
staying near seasonal norms.

The cutoff low looks to spins off to the east on Friday, allowing
upper level ridging to nudge back over the area. Current model runs
show activity over the Gulf of Alaska helping to keep the ridge
somewhat flat, which would bring temperatures about 5 degrees above
seasonal norms. This would keep west side areas in the mid to high
80s rather than the mid 90s that had been in the forecast
previously. To the east, the flatter ridge would keep temperatures
in the mid 70s rather than the mid 80s. Currently, these
temperatures look to stay in place through the weekend. -TAD


&&

.AVIATION...14/12Z TAFs...IFR/LIFR levels are present at the North
Bend and Roseburg terminals, while other parts of northern
California and southern Oregon are at VFR levels. These levels look
to raise through the morning, bringing VFR levels to all areas under
clear skies and with normal diurnal winds. Most areas will stay at
these levels through the rest of the TAF period, while marine
stratus could bring IFR/LIFR levels back to the coast tonight or
early Tuesday morning. -TAD

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Monday, September 14, 2026...Gusty
northerly winds will build steep seas south of Cape Blanco and
within 20-40 nm of shore this morning. Steep seas spread to all
waters south of Cape Blanco early in the afternoon, with very steep
and hazardous seas expected south of Gold Beach. This pattern stays
in place through Tuesday night, with local areas possible south of
Gold Beach on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Winds ease south of
Cape Blanco and increase to the north on Wednesday, allowing chances
for steep seas to spread to northern waters. Winds and seas ease on
Thursday, with below advisory levels possibly continuing into the
weekend. -TAD


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ356-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT
     Tuesday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$