044
FXUS66 KMFR 262100
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Cooler than normal temperatures continue this weekend.

* Low chance(10-15%) of showers on Sunday over northern
  California and southern Oregon

* Temperatures trend higher next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

High clouds are moving through the region this afternoon under
this upper level zonal flow. We`re also watching a thermal trough
over Oregon this afternoon denoted by the inverted 850 mb heights
and light east flow around 850mb. This isn`t a very strong
thermal trough, but one is located right over the Cascades this
afternoon.

It`ll be another cool one tonight with temperatures slightly lower
than the climatological normal for this time of year. Lows in
Medford will drop to 45 degrees, which is just 4 degrees cooler
than the normal low of 49. Klamath Falls will reach a cool 34
degrees which is right around normal for late September.

An upper level wave will move into northern California and
southern Oregon by Sunday afternoon. Ensembles are picking up on
some light precipitation around Siskiyou and Modoc County.
Looking at the GFS BUFR forecast sounding, we do see about 200
J/kg of convective available potential energy(CAPE) over AAT
Sunday afternoon. However, the NBM thunderstorm probabilities are
around 2%. So there is a chance for some convective showers
tomorrow in northern California and perhaps southern Oregon.
Those probabilities are around 10 to 20% in our opinion, while the
NBM is going with about 7%. Overall, pretty minimal impacts
unless you have some outside events Sunday afternoon.

By Monday, the trough will move eastwards with 500 mb heights
starting to rise over southern Oregon. temperatures barely budge,
although they do trend higher on Tuesday. By Wednesday,
temperatures will end up around normal with highs in the lower
80`s here in Medford with some 70`s along the coast and east of
the Cascades. This warm up is probably due to another thermal
trough building along the southern Oregon coast as shown by the
12Z ECMWF model.

By Thursday, models show some progression with a short wave
approaching southern Oregon. There is disagreement on when this
wave will arrive with some models pushing it back towards Friday
or perhaps even Friday night. This wave is looking dry, so we`re
not expecting any rain down here in southern Oregon and northern
California.

Overall, pretty low impact weather continues around our area for
the most of next week.

-Smith

&&

.AVIATION...26/18Z TAFs...MVFR stratus in the Umpqua Valley this
morning, including Roseburg, is expected to clear to VFR around 20Z.
Otherwise, conditions will remain VFR through Sunday morning, with
some occasional high clouds. Meantime, northeast/offshore low level
winds along the coast will keep the marine layer from developing.
Expect some north gusts to 25 knots at North Bend and near Cape
Blanco this afternoon into the evening. Patchy low clouds could
develop at the coast late tonight, but it`s more likely offshore
flows wins out again with VFR.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Saturday, September 26, 2026...
A Small Craft Advisory for all of the waters has been extended into
Monday morning, with steep seas to continue south of Cape Blanco
through Monday evening. Conditions overall are not likely to change
much into Thursday. A thermal trough pattern will keep gusty north
winds over the coastal waters this weekend and then over the waters
south of Cape Blanco, with steep short period seas. West-northwest
swell arrives Monday with conditions improving a bit, especially
north of Cape Blanco.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$