894
FXUS66 KMFR 020527
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1027 PM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New Aviation Section...


.AVIATION (06Z TAFs)...

Conditions are going to deteriorate along the coast in the next
few hours with LIFR/IFR conditions (ceiling & vis) persisting
through much of this cycle. It will also be breezy along the
coast this afternoon. A different story is anticipated for inland
sites with VFR conditions and overall light wind speeds. There
will be high clouds around through this cycle as well.

-Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 455 PM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026/

AVIATION...02/00Z TAFs..VFR continues this evening area wide,
with just some high clouds streaming by to the north. Expect VFR
to prevail in most areas for the next 24 hours. However, LIFR
conditions will return along the coast north of Cape Blanco and
south of Gold Beach tonight into Friday morning. Cloud cover
should be less extensive in the Umpqua Basin tonight, but MVFR
ceilings could impact the Roseburg terminal around sunrise again
Friday morning. -Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 206 PM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Low impact weather expected through the forecast period.

* Warm and dry conditions are expected across northern California
  and southern Oregon through the 7-day forecast period.

* Temperatures peak on Saturday and Sunday at 10 to 15 degrees
  above normal, with chances for more seasonal temperatures
  towards the end of next week.

DISCUSSION...

An upper level ridge remains the dominant feature across the
region, supporting a continued period of warm and dry August-like
weather across southern Oregon and northern California. The ridge
will maintain strong subsidence and mostly clear skies through the
remainder of the week, with temperatures running well above
normal across the West Side valleys. There could be some patchy
areas of fog that redevelop in the lower river valleys of the
Coquille/Umpqua Basins overnight tonight. High pressure gradually
settles over the Desert Southwest Friday, with our area remaining
on the northern periphery of this feature underneath nearly zonal
flow aloft. High temperatures will remain elevated through the
weekend, with the warmest and driest conditions expected on
Saturday and Sunday as the ridge strengthens and expands
northward. Current guidance suggests highs in the low to mid 90s
will be common across the West Side valleys during this period.
Glancing at records across the region for 10/3 - 10/5, it`s quite
likely that afternoon high temperatures will approach or challenge
record highs across the region.

The dry pattern will continue to support low afternoon relative
humidities, particularly across the valleys east of the Cascades
and in the southern Oregon/northern California interior. Some of
the driest locations will see RH values fall into the teens, while
West Side valleys generally remain in the 20-40 percent range.
Despite the dryness, overnight recoveries remain generally
favorable across lower elevations, which should help moderate the
overall fire-weather threat. Recoveries will trend lower on
exposed peaks and ridgelines as easterly flow develops toward the
end of the week and into the weekend. Winds will generally be
light with typical diurnal wind directions. Winds are expected to
be well below critical thresholds for Fire Weather concerns.

Looking ahead, the ridge remains in place early next week,
although a weak low pressure system will approach from the west
and dampen the ridge over the region. Overall, the pattern stays
predominantly dry, with subtly cooler afternoon temperatures for
early next week as the ridge weakens in response to the
aforementioned low pressure system. The upper level ridge will
rebound quickly by mid week however, with long term guidance
showing this ridge sticking through next week, which will maintain
above normal temperatures and dry conditions through then. Warm
temperatures that stay short of summer highs make outdoor
activities appealing but anticipated conditions will bring summer
like dryness. Dry grasses and leaves are still present in many
areas. Please be cautious if you choose to do anything that may
create a spark.

AVIATION...01/18Z TAFs..VFR prevails across the region, with the
exception of MVFR ceilings in the Umpqua Basin. This will improve
to VFR by 20z. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period
for most areas. Expect the return of LIFR conditions along the
coast north of Cape Blanco and south of Gold Beach tonight into
Friday morning. Cloud cover should be less extensive in the Umpqua
Basin tonight, but MVFR ceilings could impact the Roseburg
terminal around sunrise again Friday morning.

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Thursday, October 01, 2026...As the
thermal trough expands northward, steep seas will spread north to
around Coos Bay today, with very steep seas persisting south of
Gold Beach through tonight. Winds ease some Friday, so conditions
will improve north of Cape Blanco but steep seas will persist
southward into the weekend. As the thermal trough moves inland
over the weekend, expect conditions to improve some, especially
for the inner waters, though gusty north winds and steep seas are
likely to be present at times well into next week.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday
     for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$