687
FNUS76 KMFR 210039
FWSMFR

Spot Forecast for Picture Rock...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service MEDFORD OR
539 PM PDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 PDT on August 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND AND LOW RH...

.DISCUSSION...An offshore trough will impact the region
through Saturday, bringing periods of gusty wind and low RH in the
afternoons. Winds will trend stronger Friday into Saturday with
the worst conditions expected Saturday afternoon/evening over
the area.  Otherwise, expect very warm daytime conditions on
Friday with moderate recoveries Friday night. Temperatures trend
slightly less warm on Saturday. Thunder potential is very low
(5-10%) across the area on Friday, then shifts northward on Saturday.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) then becoming mostly
                    cloudy (75-85 percent).
Chance of lightning.6 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........15 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 1 to 3 mph becoming south
                    3 to 5 mph in the early afternoon,  increasing
                    5 to 7 mph with gusts to around 12 mph late
                    in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 3 to 6 mph becoming south
                    7 to 11 mph in the early afternoon,  increasing
                    10 to 14 mph with gusts to around 24 mph late
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 14 mph increasing to 16 to 20 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.

TIME (PDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky cover.......CLOUDY    MCLDY     MCLDY     CLOUDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of ltng (%).0         0         0         0
Temp............59        67        84        89
RH..............35        28        18        15
20 FT wind......S 2G5     SE 2G5    S 7G11   S 12G19
Eye level wind..S 1G2     SE 1G2    S 3G5    S 6G9
Mix hgt (ft)....500       2200      7400      9800
Transport wind..S 7       S 6       S 14      S 20


.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Chance of lightning.6 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........48 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 5 to 8 mph with gusts to around
                    12 mph shifting to the southwest 4 to 6 mph early
                    in the evening, becoming northwest 1 to 3 mph
                    late in the evening, then becoming southeast
                    1 to 3 mph overnight.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 12 to 16 mph with gusts to around
                    25 mph shifting to the southwest 9 to 12 mph early
                    in the evening, becoming northwest 3 to 7 mph
                    late in the evening, then becoming southeast
                    3 to 7 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 16 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.

TIME (PDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky cover.......CLOUDY    CLOUDY    CLOUDY    MCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of ltng (%).10        0         0         0
Temp............87        77        69        61
RH..............17        27        39        45
20 FT wind......S 15G23   SW 11G17  NW 5G7    SE 5G7
Eye level wind..S 7G11    SW 5G8    NW 2G3    SE 2G3
Mix hgt (ft)....9300      800       500       500
Transport wind..S 16      SW 12     SW 9      S 12

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of lightning.0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........13 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming south 4 to 6 mph
                    in the  mid morning, increasing to
                    southwest 7 to 9 mph with gusts to 14 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 8 to 12 mph
                    in the mid morning, increasing to
                    southwest 14 to 18 mph with gusts to 28 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......10100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 10 mph increasing to 20 to 25
                    mph late in the morning.
CWR.................0 percent.

TIME (PDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky cover.......PCLDY     PCLDY     CLEAR     MCLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of ltng (%).0         0         0         0
Temp............61        67        79        84
RH..............42        38        20        13
20 FT wind......S 2G5     S 10G17   SW 17G27  SW 16G26
Eye level wind..S 1G2     S 4G6     SW 9G13   SW 8G12
Mix hgt (ft)....500       1200      6800      10100
Transport wind..S 10      SW 12     SW 23     SW 25

$$
Forecaster...CLARSTROM
Requested by...Joel Johnson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2619993.4/MFR
.DELDT 08/21/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jjohnson@usda.gov,orlfc@firenet.gov