517
FNUS76 KMFR 200213
FWSMFR

Spot Forecast for Picture Rock...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service MEDFORD OR
713 PM PDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 PDT on August 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Dry, hot weather continues Thursday over the fire.
Expect sunny conditions, but some high clouds will move in from
the south. Overall, expect an uptick in winds during the afternoon
compared to recent days and humidity will be a touch lower. Poor
RH recoveries are expected Thursday night with high clouds. A
period of stronger afternoon SW winds is expected Friday pm/eve
as offshore low pressure moves north. This would also typically
result in a chance of thunderstorms. BUT, we expect plenty of
mid/high clouds and this should limit convective activity overall.
Best chance for thunder will be over the Cascades to the N&W. A
dry cold front moves through Saturday. Still gusty afternoon
breezes with low RH, but with a downward trend in temps. RH
recovery should be better at night.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny with increasing high clouds.
Chance of lightning.0 percent.
Max temperature.....89-91.
Min humidity........12-15 percent.
Eye level winds.....SE 1-2 mph becoming NE by mid-late morning,
                    then shifting to SW and increasing 3-5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........SE 3-6 mph becoming NE by mid-morning, then
                    shifting to SW and increasing to 10-15 mph in
                    the afternoon. Peak gusts to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......Rising to 10500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....SW 6-12 mph increasing to 12-20 mph in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.

TIME (PDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR    MCLEAR    CLEAR     MCLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of ltng (%).0         0         0         0
Temp............58        67        84        90
RH..............39        30        20        14
20 FT wind......SE 3G6    NE 3G6    N 4G6     SW 9G14
Eye level wind..SE 1G2    SE 1G2    N 1G2     SW 3G5
Mix hgt (ft)....500       2100      8600      10400
Transport wind..W 6       SW 6      SW 12     SW 16

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (high clouds).
Chance of lightning.0 percent.
Min temperature.....60-62.
Max humidity........32-36 percent.
Eye level winds.....SW 3-5 mph becoming S 1-2 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........SW 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the evening
                    shifting to S and easing to 5-8 mph.
Mixing height.......10600 ft AGL lowering to 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....SW 10-15 mph shiftingto W and easing to 5-10 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.

TIME (PDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY     CLOUDY    MCLDY     MCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of ltng (%).0         0         0         0
Temp............89        77        70        66
RH..............14        22        30        33
20 FT wind......SW 8G13   SW 7G11   S 7G11    S 6G8
Eye level wind..SW 3G5    SW 3G4    S 3G4     S 2G3
Mix hgt (ft)....10500     600       400       500
Transport wind..SW 13     W 9       NW 9      W 7

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Variable cloudiness. Breezy in the afternoon.
Chance of lightning.4 percent.
Max temperature.....88-90.
Min humidity........13-16 percent.
Eye level winds.....S-SW 2-5 mph increasing to 5-8 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........S-SW 5-10 mph increasing to 10-20 mph
                    with gusts 25-30 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......Rising to 12200 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....SW 5-10 mph increasing to 12-25 mph
                    in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.

TIME (PDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY     MCLDY     MCLDY     MCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of ltng (%).0         0         0         0
Temp............62        69        83        88
RH..............34        31        19        15
20 FT wind......S 5G7     S 6G8     S 8G13    SW 12G18
Eye level wind..S 2G3     S 2G3     S 3G5     SW 4G7
Mix hgt (ft)....500       300       4800      12000
Transport wind..SW 6      SW 7      S 10      S 18

$$
Forecaster...SPILDE
Requested by...Joel Johnson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2619993.2/MFR
.DELDT 08/20/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL orlfc@firenet.gov,jjohnson@usda.gov