817
FNUS76 KMFR 012313
FWSMFR

Spot Forecast for Sugarloaf Fire...USFD
National Weather Service MEDFORD OR
413 PM PDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1700 PDT on September 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...Hot and dry weather continues this afternoon and
evening. Low pressure offshore from central California will move
northeast into northern California on Tuesday with a surge of
moisture aloft moving into Oregon. This will result in isolated to
scattered coverage of thunderstorms initially south of the spot,
then into the area late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening.
Though the probability will diminish after sunset, a slight
chance of thunderstorms will linger longer than usual, through
Tuesday night. This is due to the track of the low, which will
continue into southern Oregon. Cumulus buildups will likely be
visible, but instability with further thunderstorm activity on
Wednesday is likely to shift away from the fire, to the north-
northeast. Temperatures will remain well above normal for
Wednesday and Thursday. The approach of the next low is expected
to bring another slight chance to chance of thunderstorms late
Thursday.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Chance of lightning.0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Eye level winds.....West winds around 2 to 4 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 6 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 7 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Chance of lightning.0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........73 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds around 2 mph shifting to the
                    east overnight.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 8 mph shifting to the east
                    around 5 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 5 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Increasing clouds and
                    a slight chance of thunderstorms late.
Chance of lightning.15 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........23 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming west up to 3 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 8 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 8 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.

$$
Forecaster...WEYGAND
Requested by...Luke Talcott
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2521051.1/MFR
.DELDT 09/01/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL luke.talcott@usda.gov