539
FNUS76 KMFR 160041
FWSMFR

Spot Forecast for Big Springs Rx...USFS KNF
National Weather Service MEDFORD OR
541 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 PDT on September 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A low pressure system will bring a slight chance
(10-20%)for showers Wednesday morning then increasing chances
for showers and  thunderstorms (25%) into the afternoon and evening.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms diminish Wednesday night, then
expect increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon and evening. Strong, gusty outflows from
thunderstorms will be a concern (with gusts to around 30-40 mph
possible), especially with storms that develop in the afternoon
and evening. Outside of thunderstorms, winds on Wednesday will be
light, then increasing in the afternoon out of the northwest. A similar
pattern is expected Thursday. However, afternoon winds may be more
variable in direction and speed.


.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms (10-20%) through late morning,
                    then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    (15-20%) in the early afternoon, thne
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms (25%)
                    in the late afternoon.
Chance of lightning.15 percent increasing to 25 percent in the late
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........25-30 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northeast winds 2 to 4 mph, becoming
                    north 3 to 5 mph in the late afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 4 to 8 mph, becoming
                    north 6 to 10 mph in the late afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......8400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 8 mph increasing to 10-12 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms (25%) early in the evening,
                    then slight chance (15%) of rain showers
                    late in the evening.
Chance of lightning.25 percent in the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........80 percent.
Eye level winds.....North winds 3 to 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 10 mph in the evening becoming
                    light. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 8 mph early in the evening, then
                     northeast 4 mph, becoming southeast 3 mph
                     late in the night.
CWR.................0 percent.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers late in the morning. Chance of rain showers
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of lightning.20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........25-30 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming variable 1 to 3 mph
                     in the late morning and early afternoon,
                     then northwest 2 to 4 mph
                     in the mid to late afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds, becoming variable 3 to 6 mph
                      in the late morning and early afternoon
                      then northwest 5 to 8 mph
                      in the mid to late afternoon.
                      Gusty and erratic winds expected
                      near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East-northeast 3-5 mph, shifting to the south
                     4-7 mph late in the morning, then shifting
                     to northwest 8 mph in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.


=
$$
Forecaster...CLARSTROM
Requested by...James Salazar
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2621716.1/MFR
.DELDT 09/15/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jsalazar@burnbot.com