484
FNUS76 KMFR 152022
FWSMFR

Spot Forecast for Fielder Mtn....Oregon Department of Forestry
National Weather Service MEDFORD OR
122 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1400 PDT on August 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Forecast soundings continue to show a deep mixed
layer continuing this afternoon. However, there is an elevated
inversion around 9500 ft which will limit further mixing above
this through the late afternoon, but this may erode through the
early evening hours. An inversion will start to redevelop after
midnight and strengthen overnight into Sunday morning. Current
satellite imagery does show cumulus developing off the higher
terrain around the Rogue Valley. While the chances are very low
for a thunderstorm this afternoon, its a non-zero chance around 5%
in the vicinity of the fire late this afternoon. Best time would
be around 6pm-7pm as that elevated inversion erodes and an upper
level shortwave passes over the region. That said, what is more
likely to occur is any potential storm stays rooted near the
higher terrain.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Smoke.
Chance of lightning.4 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming northwest around 2 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 10 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.

TIME (PDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR PC  PC
Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....SMK SMK SMK SMK
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0
Chc of ltng (%).0   0   0   0
Temp............83  86  87  88
RH..............44  37  34  33
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   NW
20 FT wind spd..3   4   4   5
20 FT wind gust.8   8   10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.W   W   W   NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.1   1   1   2
Eye lvl wnd gst.3   3   4   4
Mix hgt (kft)...7.6 7.6 7.6 6.8
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   NW
Transp wind spd.8   8   8   10

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly clear (5-15 percent). Areas of smoke.
Chance of lightning.2 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 55.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds around 2 mph becoming light.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 mph becoming light.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 3 to 10 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.

TIME (PDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......PC  MC  MC  MC  PC  PC  MCR MCR MCR CLR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....    ARS ARS ARS PTY PTY ARS ARS ARS PTY PTY
Weather type....    SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of ltng (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............86  85  82  77  74  70  68  65  63  61  59  57
RH..............34  37  41  46  52  57  61  66  70  74  76  78
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..5   4   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.10  8   8   6   6   6   5   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Eye lvl wnd spd.2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Eye lvl wnd gst.4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Mix hgt (kft)...6.8 6.8 2.1 2.1 2.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  10  10  6   6   6   3   3   3   3

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (80-90 percent).
Chance of lightning.0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......6600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 3 mph increasing to 6 to 9
                    mph.
CWR.................0 percent.

TIME (PDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  MCR MCR PC  PC  MCR PC  PC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of ltng (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............57  55  58  63  70  74  78  82  86  88  90  90
RH..............81  87  82  69  61  54  48  44  37  32  29  28
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   3   4   4
20 FT wind gust.4   2   2   2   4   5   5   6   7   8   10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   1   1
Eye lvl wnd gst.2   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   3   3   4   4
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 1.7 1.7 1.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.2
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   NW
Transp wind spd.3   3   2   2   2   3   3   3   6   6   6   9

$$
Forecaster...GUERRERO
Requested by...Matt Mackey
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2619747.1/MFR
.DELDT 08/15/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL matt.a.mackey@odf.oregon.gov,Kyle.F.KAUPP@odf.oregon.gov