770
FNUS76 KMFR 141209
FWSMFR

Spot Forecast for Elder Creek...ODF
National Weather Service MEDFORD OR
509 AM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 PDT on July 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...A strong inversion will be in place until about 10
AM this morning. Thereafter, expecting mixing to start with deep
mixing through the afternoon and early evening hours. Occasional
gusts this afternoon around 15-20 mph will be possible. Also
noteworthy is the small chance (~10%) for an isolated thunderstorm
this afternoon and early evening. If a storm forms, the main
threats would be lightning and gusty erratic wind speeds. The
inversion looks to redevelop around 9-10 PM this evening.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Haze late in the
                    morning.
Chance of lightning.10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........17 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming northeast around 2 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 6 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light, then becoming northeast 6 to 8
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9300 ft AGL increasing to 13800 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 9 mph shifting to the west 6 to
                    10 mph late in the morning.
CWR.................0 percent.

TIME (PDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky cover.......PCLDY     MCLEAR    PCLDY     PCLDY
Weather cov.....          DEFNTE    DEFNTE
Weather type....NONE      HAZE      HAZE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of ltng (%).0         0         10        10
Temp............58        70        83        88
RH..............52        39        25        17
20 FT wind......N 2G5     NE 4G6    N 4G6     NE 5G7
Eye level wind..N 1G2     NE 1G2    N 1G2     NE 2G3
Mix hgt (ft)....1100      3600      9300      13800
Transport wind..NE 9      NE 7      W 6       W 10

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Haze early in the
                    evening. Haze overnight.
Chance of lightning.12 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 53.
Max humidity........59 percent.
Eye level winds.....North winds around 2 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 6 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......11800 ft AGL decreasing to 1100 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 9 mph shifting to the north 5
                    to 10 mph early in the evening.
CWR.................0 percent.

TIME (PDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR    MCLEAR    MCLEAR    CLEAR
Weather cov.....DEFNTE              DEFNTE    DEFNTE
Weather type....HAZE      NONE      HAZE      HAZE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of ltng (%).10        10        0         0
Temp............87        76        67        57
RH..............18        29        38        53
20 FT wind......N 6G8     N 6G10    N 4G6     NE 1G4
Eye level wind..N 2G3     N 2G4     N 1G2     NE 0G2
Mix hgt (ft)....11800     1600      1100      1100
Transport wind..NW 9      N 10      N 10      N 7

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Haze in the morning and
                    early afternoon. Haze late in the afternoon.
Chance of lightning.1 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........17 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming north up to 4 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 10 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light, then becoming north 5 to 10 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......8600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 5 mph shifting to the northwest 5
                    to 12 mph early in the morning.
CWR.................0 percent.

TIME (PDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR    CLEAR     CLEAR     CLEAR
Weather cov.....DEFNTE    DEFNTE    DEFNTE    DEFNTE
Weather type....HAZE      HAZE      HAZE      HAZE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of ltng (%).0         0         0         0
Temp............53        64        79        84
RH..............58        41        26        18
20 FT wind......N 3G6     NE 3G6    NE 3G6    N 5G7
Eye level wind..N 1G2     NE 1G2    NE 1G2    N 2G3
Mix hgt (ft)....1200      3700      6300      8600
Transport wind..N 5       NW 5      W 8       W 12

$$
Forecaster...GUERRERO
Requested by...Rob Wood
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517951.1/MFR
.DELDT 07/14/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL robert.h.wood@odf.oregon.gov,orlfc@firenet.gov