579
FNUS76 KMFR 022322
FWSMFR

Spot Forecast for Sugarloaf Fire...USFD
National Weather Service MEDFORD OR
422 PM PDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1700 PDT on September 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...Very warm through Wednesday. An upper level disturbance
will move south to north across the area tonight into Wednesday,
producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. It appears the
bulk of the activity will come overnight and then regenerate Wednesday
afternoon/evening. The pattern remains conducive for showers and
thunderstorms both Thursday and Friday and also into the weekend, but
temperatures cool off this weekend and into early next week. Confidence
is increasing that this will be the first true taste of fall-like weather.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy with an isolated shower or
                    thunderstorm.
Chance of lightning.15 percent.
Max temperature.....89.
Min humidity........23-26 percent.
Eye level winds.....W 1-3 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........W 5-8 mph.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....SW 10 mph.
CWR.................4 percent.

TIME (PDT)      5 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY
Weather cov.....ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ISOLTD
CWR.............1
Chc of ltng (%).15
Temp............88
RH..............27
20 FT wind......W 1G3
Eye level wind..W 5G8
Mix hgt (ft)....3500
Transport wind..SW 10

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated
                    thunderstorms through the night. Areas of
                    smoke.
Chance of lightning.24 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 67.
Max humidity........55-65 percent.
Eye level winds.....W 1-3 mph becoming east 0-2 mph overnight.
Wind (20 ft)........W 5-8 mph becoming east 1-4 mph overnight.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......Lowering to near surface.
Transport winds.....SW becoming N 5-10 mph shifting to the SE
                    3-8 mph overnight.
CWR.................4 percent.

TIME (PDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY     MCLDY     MCLDY     MCLDY
Weather cov.....ISOLTD    ISOLTD    SCATRD    AREAS
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    SMOKE
Tstm cov........ISOLTD    ISOLTD    ISOLTD    ISOLTD
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of ltng (%).15        20        24        20
Temp............81        69        70        68
RH..............36        50        46        46
20 FT wind......NW 4G6    NE 3G6    E 5G7     S 3G6
Eye level wind..NW 1G2    NE 1G2    E 2G3     S 1G2
Mix hgt (ft)....1100      BLW100    BLW100    BLW100
Transport wind..SW 7      NE 6      NE 6      SE 3

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Areas of smoke. Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms through the day.
Chance of lightning.24 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Eye level winds.....SE 1-2 mph becoming W 2-4 mph after 1100.
Wind (20 ft)........SE 3-7 mph becoming W 6-11 mph with gusts to
                    16 mph after 1100.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......4200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....SE 10 mph shifting to W 5-10 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.

TIME (PDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MCR
Weather cov.....ARS ARS ARS ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
Weather type....SMK SMK SMK RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of ltng (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Temp............68  68  67  72  75  78  79  82  83  83  83  81
RH..............45  45  49  44  41  40  38  36  36  35  37  37
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..3   3   4   4   4   6   6   6   6   6   7   6
20 FT wind gust.6   6   6   6   6   8   8   8   8   11  12  8
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   W   W   W   W
Eye lvl wnd spd.1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2   1
Eye lvl wnd gst.2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   2
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 3.7 3.7 3.7 1.5
Transp wind dir.E   E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.8   8   10   9   9   7   7   7   6   6   6   8

$$
Forecaster...SPILDE
Requested by...Luke Talcott
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2521051.2/MFR
.DELDT 09/02/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL luke.talcott@usda.gov