Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
686
FNUS76 KMFR 170133
FWSMFR
Spot Forecast for Picture Rock...Forest Service
National Weather Service MEDFORD OR
633 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 PDT on August 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...High clouds will continue into Monday evening, with
mostly clear skies to follow through Thursday. Temperatures will
be seasonably warm with very dry humidity levels. Meantime, winds
will be shifty and gusty, and strongest during the afternoon and
evening hours. A slight chance of thunderstorms will remain west
and north of Fort Rock on Monday, but the next slight chance
event could develop on Friday.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Chance of lightning.3 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........56 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southwest 2 to 4 mph with gusts to 6 mph
becoming Northwest winds 3 to 5 mph with gusts
to 8 mph at 9 PM then diminishing after midnight
to 2 to 3 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest 7 to 9 mph with gusts to 15 mph
becoming Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts
to 22 mph at 9 PM then diminishing after midnight
to 3 to 5 mph.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL late in
the evening.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 8 mph shifting to the north 5
to 12 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
TIME (PDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of ltng (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............83 80 76 71 68 66 64 63 62 60 59 59
RH..............15 18 24 30 38 45 48 51 52 54 55 56
20 FT wind dir..SW W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..7 7 9 10 14 14 14 13 11 9 7 5
20 FT wind gust.15 13 16 17 20 21 21 18 15 13 9 6
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.2 2 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2
Eye lvl wnd gst.6 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3
Mix hgt (kft)...11 11 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W W NW NW NW N N N N N N N
Transp wind spd.9 8 12 12 13 12 10 10 8 8 8 5
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) then becoming mostly
cloudy (60-75 percent).
Chance of lightning.5 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........11 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming southeast around 2 mph early
in the afternoon, then shifting to the
southwest 3 to 5 mph with gusts to 8 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph early
in the afternoon, then shifting to the southwest
around 10 to 14 mph with gusts to 22 mph in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......7900 ft AGL increasing to 11900 ft AGL late in
the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 5 mph shifting to the
southwest in the morning, then increasing
to 12 to 15 mph late in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
TIME (PDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC CDY MC MC MC MC CDY MC MC MC MC PC
Weather cov.....PTY PTY
Weather type....SMK SMK
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of ltng (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............57 58 60 64 69 73 77 80 83 83 84 85
RH..............56 56 52 47 41 35 30 23 18 14 12 11
20 FT wind dir..NW NW N E SE SE SE SE S SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..4 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 9 12 13
20 FT wind gust.5 4 4 5 6 6 8 9 12 18 20 21
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW NW N E SE SE SE SE S SW SW SW
Eye lvl wnd spd.1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 7.9 7.9 7.9 11 11 11 12
Transp wind dir.N N SW SW SW S SE SE S SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.4 4 2 2 3 10 10 10 15 15 15 13
.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Chance of lightning.4 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 55.
Max humidity........54 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds 2 to 4 mph with gusts to 6 mph
shifting to the northwest 3 to 6 mph with gusts
to 8 mph early in the evening, then decreasing
to 2 to 3 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
shifting to the northwest 11 to 17 mph with gusts
to 24 mph early in the evening, then decreasing
to 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......11900 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL early in
the evening.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 12 mph shifting to the
northwest 8 to 14 mph early in the evening.
CWR.................0 percent.
TIME (PDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of ltng (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............83 80 76 70 67 65 63 62 61 59 58 57
RH..............16 19 25 34 42 49 50 52 52 52 53 54
20 FT wind dir..SW W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..9 8 15 16 16 14 14 12 12 10 10 8
20 FT wind gust.16 14 22 24 24 22 21 19 18 16 14 13
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.3 3 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2
Eye lvl wnd gst.5 5 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4
Mix hgt (kft)...12 12 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SW SW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
Transp wind spd.12 12 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 12 12 10
$$
Forecaster...WEYGAND
Requested by...Lex Romine
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2619816.0/MFR
.DELDT 08/16/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL orlfc@firenet.gov,lex.romine@usda.gov