Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
045
FNUS76 KMFR 030457
FWSMFR
Spot Forecast for SUGARLOAF...USFS
National Weather Service MEDFORD OR
957 PM PDT Tue Sep 2 2025
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1400 PDT on September 03.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...
.DISCUSSION...It will remain very warm through Thursday. An upper level
disturbance will bring showers and isolated lightning each day. There could
be lightning Wednesday morning as well, but the bulk of activity will be in
the afternoons/evenings. The pattern remains conducive for showers and
thunderstorms Thursday and Friday and also into the weekend, but temperatures
cool off this weekend and into early next week. Confidence is increasing that
next week will be the first true taste of fall-like weather with the potential
for below normal temperatures, higher humidity and beneficial
rainfall.
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Areas of smoke. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms through the day.
Chance of lightning.20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........28-32 percent.
Eye level winds.....SE 1-2 mph becoming W 2-4 mph after 1100.
Wind (20 ft)........SE 3-7 mph becoming W 6-11 mph with gusts to
16 mph after 1100.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......4200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....SE 10 mph shifting to W 5-10 mph late in the
afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
TIME (PDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC PC PC MCR
Weather cov.....ISO ISO ISO ISO
Weather type....RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ISO ISO ISO ISO
CWR.............5 5 5 5
Chc of ltng (%).20 20 20 20
Temp............85 84 84 82
RH..............36 35 37 38
20 FT wind dir..W W W N
20 FT wind spd..6 6 6 4
20 FT wind gust.8 8 8 6
Eye lvl wnd dir.W W W N
Eye lvl wnd spd.2 2 2 1
Eye lvl wnd gst.3 3 3 2
Mix hgt (kft)...5.1 5.1 5.1 2.1
Transp wind dir.W W W NE
Transp wind spd.3 3 3 9
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms in the evening. Areas of
smoke.
Chance of lightning.15 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 65.
Max humidity........70 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming east around 2 mph late in
the evening, then becoming light overnight
becoming east around 2 mph early in the
morning.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east around 5 mph late in
the evening, then becoming light overnight
becoming east around 5 mph early in the
morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......Lowering to near surface.
Transport winds.....Northeast 3 to 9 mph shifting to the east
around 3 mph early in the morning.
CWR.................2 percent.
TIME (PDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR PC PC MCR MCR MCR PC PC PC PC
Weather cov.....ISO ISO ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS
Weather type....RW RW SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK
Tstm cov........ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
CWR.............2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of ltng (%).20 20 15 15 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............80 76 71 67 66 67 67 68 68 69 69 69
RH..............43 47 55 59 59 56 54 51 49 46 45 44
20 FT wind dir..N N NE NE NE E E E E E E E
20 FT wind spd..4 4 3 3 3 5 5 5 4 4 4 5
20 FT wind gust.6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 7
Eye lvl wnd dir.N N NE NE NE E E E E E E E
Eye lvl wnd spd.1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 2
Eye lvl wnd gst.2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 3
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 2.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.NE NE NE NE NE E E E E E E E
Transp wind spd.9 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 3 3 3 3
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of lightning.15 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Eye level winds.....East winds around 2 mph early in the morning
becoming light, then becoming northwest up to 3
mph late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5 mph early in the morning
becoming light, then becoming northwest 5 to 7
mph late in the afternoon. Gusts to 11 mph.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 3 to 5 mph shifting to the northeast
around 5 mph late in the morning, then shifting
to the northwest around 8 mph late in the
afternoon shifting to the south around 7 mph
late in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 10 percent late in the
afternoon.
TIME (PDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC PC MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC PC PC PC
Weather cov..... SCH
Weather type.... RW
Tstm cov........ SCH
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 10
Chc of ltng (%).0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 15
Temp............67 66 66 70 76 81 84 86 86 86 84 82
RH..............47 50 52 48 42 37 35 35 36 36 38 41
20 FT wind dir..E E E E E NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..5 5 3 3 3 4 4 4 7 7 7 5
20 FT wind gust.7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 11 11 11 7
Eye lvl wnd dir.E E E E E NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 2
Eye lvl wnd gst.3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 4 3
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 5.1 5.1 5.1 2.0
Transp wind dir.E E E E E NE NE NE NW NW NW S
Transp wind spd.3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 8 8 8 7
$$
Forecaster...SPILDE
Requested by...Adam Armijo
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2521173.0/MFR
.DELDT 09/02/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL adam.armijo@usda.gov