304
FXUS62 KMHX 282339
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
739 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Adjusted min T`s down several degrees over the next several
nights.

Adjusted afternoon TD`s down several degrees over the next
several days.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Elevated water levels and minor street and property tidal
flooding will continue to impact some coastal communities,
mainly Downeast, thanks to ongoing high astronomical tides.

2) High pressure builds in through the week with warming
temperatures and light winds.

3) Moisture returns with a cold front and low pressure system
bringing next chance of rain this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...While wind and seas have come down, minor
soundside flooding (1 ft or less) is still possible for mainly
Downeast Carteret county through the next several high tide
cycles. The high astronomical tides peak on Tuesday, and already
high water levels due to last weeks wind event will keep water
levels elevated mainly around the high tide cycles through the
next couple days. Standing water on roadways, and in low lying
or poor drainage areas, could have minor impacts for travelers
in especially vulnerable areas prone to the tidal flooding.
Elevated water levels will persist through Wednesday, but levels
are not expected to be as high as they were the last several
days.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cool nights and warm days are the theme over the
next several days as a dry air mass persists overhead. Mid to
late week, upper level ridging is forecast to expand north and
east from the Gulf Coast to the Southeast U.S. coast. Warming
low- level thicknesses and the eventual return deep layer sswrly
flow will allow temps to soar above normal to close out
September and welcome in October. Moisture and humidity will
gradually return as well, but it doesn`t look like a quick
return. Overnight temps will cool to the low side of guidance,
and have trended lower due to the dry air mass in place and
light to calm wind each night. Areas in the swrn zones, as well
as adjacent to the normal cold spots such as near the Croatan
and Hoffman forests will be the coolest with mid-upper 50s
expected tonight, then upper 50s to low 60s Tue night. High
temps will begin to rise above climo tomorrow with mid 80s
interior (upr 70s coast) then upper 80s to near 90 Wed-Thu (upr
70s/low 80s coast), with some low 90s to round out the work
week.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Model differences on timing of the next system,
but it appears a cold front and Gulf moisture begin to impinge
on the region either this weekend or early next week with the
next chance of rain. For now, pops have been raised to no higher
than 30-50% for this period of time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Persistent bank of clouds sit along and north of a line from
roughly MQI westward associated with convergence along a weak
surface trough. Expect these clouds to dissipate in the next few
hours bringing a return to SKC for all terminals. There is a
marginal probability (10-15%) of MIFG/low stratus for most
terminals between 09-12z, although odds are slightly lower
closer to the coast.

No impacts expected for flying tomorrow with VFR and only
diurnal cu and a weak afternoon seabreeze under 10 kt to
contend with.

Outlook (Tuesday through Saturday): Other than a nightly risk
of MIFG/BR, it appears that a mostly quiet period for aviation
is in the cards through the rest of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will be light and mainly erly through tonight and Tuesday.
During the peak diurnal heating, winds come up a bit nearshore
with speeds approaching 10 kt with some higher gusts, but
otherwise good boating conditions and seas of 2-3 ft are
expected.

Outlook (Tue through Sat): Great boating conditions continue
mid to late week with light winds each day and seas of 2-3ft.
The winds become mainly serly Wed night into Thu, then s to ssw
Thu night through Fri, but speeds no higher than 5-10 kt with
gusts no higher than 15 kt.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM EDT Tuesday for
     NCZ195-196.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/TL
AVIATION...TL/MS
MARINE...TL