917
FXUS62 KMHX 030651
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
251 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide quiet weather through the end of the
week with a gradual warming trend. A cold front will move
through the area this weekend, with high pressure building in
late weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 230 AM Wed...General weather pattern over the past couple
of days prevails this morning with broad troughing over much of
the central and eastern CONUS, although mid-level heights will
drop a bit today as a stronger closed low over the Canadian
prairies dives southeastward towards the Great Lakes through the
period. At the surface, high pressure wedge remains in place
sandwiched between the stalled front still well offshore and a
second, deepening cyclone over far southern Ontario ahead of the
aforementioned Prairie low.

Overnight...Some very transient and patchy fog has developed
across the inner coastal plain as expected while winds have
decoupled. Expecting this to continue until sunrise, but
coverage will be limited and impacts should not rise much above
nuisance levels.

Today...Sensible weather today is quiet while the surface high
begins to weaken while cold front from the Canadian low begins
to encroach on the Midwest. Expecting a bit less cloud cover
than yesterday with some mid to low level dry air advection from
the NW. Despite lower upper level heights insolation will keep
temps similar or a couple degrees higher than yesterday in the
low 80s, upper 70s along the coast. This is still slightly below
normal for early September.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Wed...Another quiet and mainly clear night, this
time with more widespread decoupling as surface high weakens
further. As front nears, winds will weakly veer more onshore and
we will see some modest increase in low level moisture before
sunrise. This will marginally increase the risk for some fog
early tomorrow morning, but guidance does not portend anything
widespread.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 2 AM Wed...

Key Messages

 - Temperatures gradually warming late week into Saturday

 - Mostly dry this week, with precip chances increasing this
   weekend into early next week

Thursday through Friday...The pattern will remain active with
sfc high pressure ridging in from the NE, upper troughing over
the eastern US while multiple shortwaves pivot through. Weak
cold front will approach the area Thu night and Friday, though
will likely stall and dissipate to the west. Despite the
pattern, looks to remain mostly dry over eastern NC, with only
potential for isolated showers. Temps will continue to gradually
warm closer to climo by the end of the week as NNE flow becomes
more S`rly and low level thicknesses increase. Temps will climb
back towards 90 deg inland Fri.

Saturday through Tuesday...Complex low pressure system will
continue to push through Canada, while upper trough pivots
through the eastern US, and cold front approaches from the west.
Still some timing differences with the frontal passage, but
general consensus still looks like Saturday night into early
Sunday. Ahead of the front Saturday, moist SSW flow will allow
for temps to warm into the low 90s inland and mid/upper 80s
along the coast. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms
will be possible Sat and Sat night. Svr risk looks low at this
time. High pressure will build in from the north Sunday and
early next week. Post frontal NE flow will allow for drier and
cooler air to filter back into the region. High temps will fall
back into the upper 70s to low 80s, and lows in the 60s-70 deg.
Weak wedge may set up behind the front and into early next
week, which would give way to NE-E flow, more clouds than sun
and increased shower chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Thursday/...
As of 245 AM Wed...Patchy fog formation has gotten off to an
early start for inland terminals, most notably at PGV where
visibilities have bounced between 5 and 1/2 miles for the past
couple of hours. Expecting this trend to continue and expand to
a couple more terminals (next most likely ISO followed by OAJ),
based on combination of LAMP and averaged point model soundings.

VFR conditions are otherwise expected today with light
northeasterly winds under weakening high pressure through the
day. Winds collapse quickly tonight as high gives way to an
approaching front from the northwest and flow veers onshore
early Thurs. Patchy fog threat once again returns tomorrow, with
marginally more coverage than this morning.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 2 AM Wed...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. While probs remains low, there will be potential for
patchy sub-VFR fog and/or stratus each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 250 AM Wed...Marine conditions slowly improving this
morning as waters continue to sit between high pressure wedge
inland and low pressure migrating along a stalled frontal
boundary a few hundred miles offshore. High pressure is
beginning to weaken as cold front encroaches from the northwest,
and winds are modestly lighter at 15-20 kt. Seas are down to 4-5
feet, although a few isolated 6 footers are probably lingering
across outer central waters.

Expecting winds to lay down further through the day as high
continues to steadily weaken. Winds of 10-15 kt expected to
prevail through the day, but after sunset this falls further to
10 kt or less. Consequently, seas will continue to slowly ebb
through the period.

All SCA headlines have been dropped for this forecast package.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 2 AM Wed...Winds expected to remain light, gradually
veering to the E-SE Thu and S-SW Fri and Sat as a cold front
approaches from the west. The cold front will move through the
waters Saturday night and early Sunday. Moderate NNE flow will
develop behind the front Sunday 10-15 kt, increasing early next
week. Seas will remain at 2-4 ft into the weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...MS/CQD
MARINE...MS/CQD