004
FXUS62 KMHX 091037
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
637 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Risk of dangerous heat later this week.

2) Pattern expected to become more conducive for showers and
thunderstorms mid-week into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Very warm low-level thicknesses are forecast to
overspread the Carolinas from mid-week on as we get into a WSW
low- level flow pattern. Once again, 00z guidance have trended
warmer, and this continues to support an increased confidence in
above normal temperatures. The caveats each day will be the
coverage of convection (see KEY MESSAGE 2 for additional
details), and the potential for high clouds/convective debris.
Both of those factors can have significant impacts on the
temperature forecast each day. Regardless, persistent southerly
flow will allow dewpoints to steadily rise through the 60s and
70s each day. This will lead to higher humidity and increasing
"feels like" temperatures even on the days with
convection/clouds. Right now, it appears Friday may have the
lowest coverage of thunderstorms, and the hottest temperatures
of the week. Probabilistic guidance currently shows a 50-70%
chance of exceeding 95 degrees for inland areas away from the
coast. This combined with dewpoints in the low 70s suggests a
widespread area of "feels like" temperatures of 100-105 degrees.
This setup could lead to the first heat headlines of the summer
season. The NWS` experimental Heat Risk guidance shows much of
ENC in the major category, with a few areas nearing the extreme
category.

KEY MESSAGE 2...From a 50,000ft perspective, the synoptic
pattern is expected to shift towards something more favorable
for convection across ENC from mid-week into early next week.
However, this shouldn`t be read as a high coverage of
thunderstorms each day. It simply means the potential is there
to not be nearly as dry as we have been lately.

Initially, yesterday`s cold front will flip around and lift
back northeast as a warm front tonight. A few showers may
accompany this front as it moves through. In the wake of this
front, an upper level shortwave is forecast to move through the
Mid- Atlantic and Carolinas late Wednesday into Thursday. This
wave is forecast to interact with a moistening and gradually
destabilizing airmass, supporting clusters of convection from
Virginia south into North Carolina. Locally, temps aloft will be
very warm, with 850 temps of 15-20C. This will have a tendency
to support some residual capping, and may tend to lead to a
weakening trend with any convection that approaches our area
from the west/northwest. Given the increased forcing with the
wave, though, it stands to reason that at least some weak,
elevated convection could survive into the area, and the
forecast reflects this potential. Very warm temps aloft may
continue to cap a greater coverage of convection into Friday.
Over the weekend, temps aloft "cool" slightly, and this may
support at least a risk of seabreeze convection. Early next
week, guidance is now hinting at the potential for a front to
move through with an increased risk of convection. Additionally,
deep layer shear of around 30-35kt along the front may support
a modest increase in the potential for organized convection,
some of which could be on the strong side. Outside of Monday,
shear looks fairly weak each day, with a marginal, pulse severe
environment each day.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A dry, post-frontal airmass is now fully entrenched across ENC.
On the fringe of this airmass is a ribbon of low CIGs that
stretches from SE North Carolina north through SW Virginia. Over
the past few hours, this area of low CIGs has crept north along
the Crystal Coast, and may briefly impact KOAJ and KEWN. An
easterly low-level flow should prevent those lower CIGs from
reaching KISO and KPGV. For now, I`ve added a TEMPO IFR group at
KOAJ. Confidence is slightly lower at KEWN, therefore I have
opted to hold off on adding a TEMPO group and have, instead,
highlighted this potential with a SCT IFR level group.

Light and variable winds this morning will slightly increase
and become southeasterly by mid to late afternoon into the early
evening hours as the seabreeze moves inland. SCT cumulus
development appears likely along the seabreeze, but the risk of
SHRA and TSRA looks low (<5% chance).

Outlook (Wednesday through Sunday): A warm front will lift
northeast across ENC Tuesday night and may be accompanied by a
few SHRA. A period of low VFR CIGs may develop along this front
as well. From Wednesday into Thursday, an upper level wave may
combine with a moistening and destabilizing airmass to support a
TSRA and sub-VFR risk. Occasionally gusty south to southwest
winds are expected mid-week as well. In general, the weather
pattern looks to continue to be supportive of a daily TSRA risk
into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Despite high pressure building in, the gradient remains tight
enough to support NE winds of 10-20kt as of 3am. The gradient is
expected to quickly relax by sunrise this morning, with winds
becoming easterly and laying down to 5-15kt. Seas will
eventually follow suite, laying down from 3-6ft this morning to
2-4ft by this afternoon. The one exception is the outer waters
where 4-6ft seas are forecast to last through tonight.

Winds will become southeasterly by this evening, then southerly
tonight, as high pressure shifts offshore.

Outlook (Wednesday through Sunday): A typical summertime regime
returns from Wednesday onwards, with a daily building of
southwesterly flow each afternoon and evening as the thermal
gradient tightens. Occasional periods of 25- 30kt winds will be
possible during this time, especially Wednesday- Friday. Seas of
3-5ft will be common. The risk of thunderstorms will gradually
increase from mid to late-week as well, but widespread
thunderstorm activity is not anticipated on any day for now.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM