154
FXUS62 KMHX 040950
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
550 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
SCA issued for the central waters and Pamlico Sound late this
afternoon and evening. Heat advisory remains in effect for most
of the area today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous, potentially record-breaking heat to impact the
area through Saturday.

2) Several impulses ahead of a cold front bring rounds of
potential severe thunderstorms both late today, and again
Saturday.

3) Return to more seasonable September temps for the beginning
of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Anomalously warm low-level thicknesses and
dewpoints beneath strong ridging aloft will continue to keep
temperatures well above normal with potential record breaking
heat continuing through Saturday, with heat index values
peaking at 105-110 deg today for most of the area, and possibly
again for srn zones on Saturday.

Today continues to have the strongest signal for the peak of
this week`s heat wave, with highs ranging 95-100 for the
interior coastal plain, with low 90s coast. Thermal gradient
should be strong enough to allow for fast seabreeze progression
and thus preclude heat indices reaching 105 for portions of the
immediate coast. The combo of hot temps well above 90 inland
coupled with TD`s well into the 70s bring heat indices 105+ once
again inland. Some locales may once again flirt with vals above
110 again, but not long enough or widespread for issuance of
heat warnings. HREF probs remain below 20%.

Saturday a cold front will begin sinking southward through the
area, but at the same time TD vals inc with moisture gradient
tightening ahead of it, and with temps fcst to reach into the
mid to possibly upper 90s in swrn zones, another day of heat
indices 105-110 degrees is possible before expected numerous
showers and storms ends the heat later in the day. Best chances
to reach criteria are generally along and s of Hwy 70.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong upper level trough will develop off
the U.S. East Coast over the weekend, and this will help drive a
strong cold front south through the Carolinas on Saturday and
Saturday night. Strong heating of a moist boundary layer ahead
of the front should allow strong instability to develop from the
Mid-Atlantic south into North Carolina today. While some
residual subsidence/capping may be present beneath the ridge,
especially across NC, guidance show a decent signal for
convection developing upstream of ENC, and making a run towards
the nrn zones late this afternoon and evening. If convection
can arrive early enough, severe potential is there, esp north of
Hwy 70 and best chances north of Hwy 264. CAMs have generally
inc in covg here. Instability is above the climo max for the
first week of September, and deep layer shear above 25 kt. Main
threat will be potential for damaging wind gusts.

On Saturday, the ridge will continue to get suppressed further
south and west with less influence across the Carolinas. This
plus increased forcing along the cold front should support an
improved risk of deep convection, and less limiting factors,
compared to Friday. PW`s/TD`s inc further and with lowering hts
aloft, instability will be very strong. In fact, vals will be
well above the avg max for first week of September according to
the KMHX sounding climatology, with ML CAPE vals advertised by
the 03/12Z RRFS/ECM/NAM3k reaching or exceeding 4,000 J/KG! If
convective timing aligns with fropa/shortwave passage in the
afternoon, a significant severe weather signal may be met as
this aligns with deep layer shear of 35-45kt. Machine learning
severe probs for damaging wind have increased for parts of ENC.
In addition to the severe threat, will have to watch for
potential flash flood threat, as PW`s surge to 2.25" or higher,
and with the expected numerous convection, very heavy rain rates
are possible with deeper convection and lend to instances of
flash flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Behind the front, temperatures and humidity
will finally get knocked down closer to normal for early
September, with more comfortable conditions lasting into early
next week. Still some residual moisture lingering on Sunday and
may see some sct showers, but overall trend is for drier esp as
we begin the work week with pops less than 20% lasting through
mid week. Highs in the mid 80s with lows in the 60s is fcst and
is where our temps should be for the first half of September.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mix of VFR and LIFR across the terminals early this morning,
with mix of patchy fog and low stratus. Still looks like best
chances at OAJ/EWN and ISO...where a few hours of IFR are
possible. Any patchy fog/low stratus quickly dissipates by about
13Z with VFR conditions then returning to all of ENC through
this evening. Afterwards potential for showers/tstms bringing
sub VFR conditions begin to increase across the far northern
zones, especially after 21-00Z. Greatest risk would be to
PGV/ISO terminals.

NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been appended to the EWN TAFs as the
site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is
still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not
as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next
closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT).

Outlook (Sat through Tue): Better chances for widespread
showers and storms on Sat as cold front drops through the area.
Sub-VFR conditions will be possible with any TSRA during this
time. Behind the front, a northeasterly wind shift will occur,
with northeasterly flow continuing into early next week and pred
VFR returning.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show SW winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft. Stronger
thermal gradient develops this afternoon and evening, with winds
increasing to 10-20 kt with potential for a few hours of 25 kt
gusts for the eastern sounds/Alligator river and nearshore ctrl
waters. Issued SCA for the Pamlico Sound and central waters.
Strong to severe thunderstorms could affect nrn sounds and
waters late this afternoon and esp evening as storms move south
from VA. Strong wind gusts and freq lightning are the main
threat with these storms.

Outlook (Sat through Tue): More widespread storms could affect
the remainder of the ENC waters Saturday as a cold front moves
through. Winds will shift becoming NE behind the front Sat and
Sat night. Moderate to gusty NE winds will develop Sunday and
continue into Monday, with seas building to 4-7 ft, highest
across the outer waters. Winds and seas will begin to ease
Tuesday as high pressure builds in.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures for 09/04 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         98/1944  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    92/2020  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       98/1930  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    93/1959  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          98/1983  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     96/2020  (NCA ASOS)

Record High Temperatures for 09/05 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         96/2023  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    91/1983  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       99/1921  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    91/2020  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         100/1983  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     96/1983  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>195-198-199-
     203.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     this evening for AMZ135-152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/TL
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL