553
FXUS62 KMHX 052000
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will develop and travel along the
boundary stalled offshore to the south, impacting the Carolinas
this morning into Saturday. The front will remain stalled off
the southern NC coast behind this system leading to unsettled
weather through early next week at times, especially southern
areas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Fri...Band of overrunning stratiform rain cont to
envelope all of ENC today. Main area of lift will exit off the
coast this evening, with rain tapering off as it does so. Cool
and clammy conditions for the overnight with lows in the 30s
north and west to 40s south and east. Periods of light drizzle
and mist will cont to afflict the region overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Fri...Same boundary is forecast to remain stalled
just south of ENC on Saturday. Given the close proximity, and
various upper level waves moving through the region, there`s the
potential for areas of very light precipitation esp for the
Crystal Coast and Onslow. Rain chances taper off to chc to the
north, and slight chance to none north of Hwy 264. Have lowered
max T`s owing the cont low stratus expected to envelop ENC, and
jives closer to MOS blend/HREF advertised highs in the 45-50
range.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 PM Fri...Mainly dry Sun, then small precip chances Mon,
with dry and seasonably cold mid week. Another weather maker
possible by week`s end.

Sunday...High pressure center reaches the Carolinas from the N,
providing a brief break in the wet weather. Partial clearing of
skies with a decrease in moisture and increasing heights allow
MaxTs to reach back into the 50s.

Monday...The start of next week brings another chc of precip
with passage of cold front expected. Aloft, upper low will swing
through, and spur offshore cyclogenesis late in the day and
evening. Typical cold air chasing moisture scenario, where temps
tumble through late afternoon, but moisture is coming to an end.
There may be some overlap where rain mixes with some snow, but
no impacts would occur even if this low end scenario pans out,
as daytime highs will be in the 40s and a `warm` ground would be
in place.

Tuesday through Thursday...Dry conditions across the board
return as high pressure builds back in at the SFC behind
Monday`s front and trough axis aloft finally pushes E of the
coast. Highs generally in the 50s, and lows in the 20s Mon
night/Tue night. Good radiational cooling will bring lows into
the 20s for most of Mainland ENC, with 30s on the beaches and
OBX.

Friday...Next chc for appreciable precip arrives by week`s end,
as next shortwave trough swings through the Ern CONUS in a cont
active synoptic pattern. Due to uncertainty this far out in
details and timing, pops kept at 20% or lower for now.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 2 PM Fri...

Key Messages...

- High confidence in IFR ceilings continuing through at least
  7-8 am tomorrow morning

- Moderate confidence in ceilings remaining at or dropping to
  LIFR levels through 7-8 am tomorrow morning

- Improving conditions will late tomorrow afternoon/evening


Rain continues to overspread the region as a low pressure system
moves across the SE coast. Ceilings remain at IFR levels (< 1000
ft), and have dropped to LIFR thresholds (< 500 ft) in some
spots. Rain will taper off this evening from NW to SE however
low clouds and surface moisture will remain locked in through
tonight with IFR/LIFR conditions continuing. These very low
ceilings and a freshly saturated ground will promote areas of
fog development as well, with visibilities likely dropping to
3-5 miles overnight into tomorrow morning. Very little
improvement will occur before 10 am tomorrow morning, but
ceilings will begin to lift to IFR or even low end MVFR by early
tomorrow afternoon. VFR conditions will finally return sometime
early tomorrow night.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 3 PM Fri...nnerly surge was not as strong as expected, and
have cancelled the SCA for Pam sound early, though 6 ft seas
linger for the waters north of Hatteras, and SCA remains through
early this evening.

Sat through Sun...Good boating conditions on the weekend with
mainly 2-4 ft seas, with some 5 ft sets outer waters, but winds
in the 5-15 kt range.

Mon...Backdoor front passes through with a sharp ramp up in
winds expected. Solid SCA conditions expected, with the
possibility for gales, esp the better mixed Gulf waters offshore
south of C Hatteras. Seas will quickly inc to 5-8 ft during the
day Mon and remain there through early Tue.

Tue through Thu...Winds and seas relax a bit, though by late
Wed winds turn swrly and inc to near SCA (15-25 kt) for the Gulf
waters, and 10-20 kt elsewhere.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...TL