296
FXUS62 KMHX 021800
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
100 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Introduced small pops through Wednesday mainly for coastal
counties.

Increased pops on Friday ahead of fropa.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm with increasing moisture and isolated showers through
Thursday.

2) Chance of more widespread showers and a few thunderstorms on
Friday ahead of a cold front.

3) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the fropa for this
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Little change to the forecast reasoning and
synoptic setups through the period. Where guidance is fairly
well clustered is with an amplified upper trough that will be
shifting east out of the Central U.S. While there is still some
potential for a cutoff low to develop, most guidance have now
trended towards more of a progressive and open wave as it moves
through the Eastern U.S. Before that happens, low level flow
will be from a moist easterly direction over the next several
days, which will advect favorable regime for on and off light
rain, esp for the coastal areas through Thursday. For the rest
of today, light showers with eastward progressing shortwave
energy is not handled well by model guidance. Have inc pops
manually to account for isolated to widely scattered showers.
The same holds true through mid week, and ENC will cont under
influence of e to se flow and hence a daily chance for widely
sct showers. Have inc pops both Wed and Thu as a result. Don`t
expect much in the way of accums, but enough to wet the ground
in places, esp the further east in ENC.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Most guidance is now centering on the best
chance of showers and even a few thunderstorms moving in Friday.
Perhaps some WAA showers on Thu with warm front migrating
through, as well as perhaps a rumble of thunder as well, but
main forcing mechanism for showers and storms arrives on Friday
ahead of a cold front. For this reason, pops are raised to
40-50%. Of note, some guidance are showing anomalous moisture
and higher- than- normal instability for early November, as
indicated by EFI highlighting CAPE vals nearing the 80th
percentile. This would support the potential of some higher
rainfall rates and totals should this materialize. A few
stronger storms may even materialize if timing of showers
arrives in the afternoon coinciding with peak heating. The other
aspect of the forecast that appears to be coming more clear
this week is the potential for above to well above normal
temperatures, especially Wednesday and Thursday, and esp during
the overnight periods. While record highs may not be broken,
warming low- level thicknesses in advance of the approaching
trough should support highs warming into the 70s, with some low
80s possible inland. Meanwhile, overnight lows are forecast to
be closer to our normal highs for this time of year. Some record
warm lows may be in jeopardy. For reference, normal highs are
65-70 for early November, with normal lows in the 40s inland and
50s along the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Better agreement amongst 02/12Z model guidance
with fropa now late Friday, which will usher in a more
seasonably dry airmass for the coming weekend. Return to mo
sunny skies and highs in the 60s and lows generally in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions with bkn high clouds continues early this
afternoon. Winds are light nerly.

Later this evening and tonight, some mid and upper level drying
may scour out some of the extensive high level cloudiness of
late. Should this occur, it could support slightly better
radiational cooling conditions and an increased risk of
BR/MIFG/FG development. The latest short-term guidance continue
to show modest probabilities of this occurring (30-50% chance).
There is still some uncertainty regarding how much clearing will
actually occur, so no sub-VFR conditions have been introduced
into the TAFs just yet. At face value, guidance favors KOAJ,
KPGV, and KISO for the best chance to see a period of reduced
VIS. Any fog or low stratus burns off Tue morning with return to
VFR and cont light winds.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Coastal troughing near
ENC may support periods of low CIGs and SHRA for eastern
terminals esp EWN and MRH. With increased low- level moisture,
there may also be a nightly risk of BR/MIFG/FG at all TAF sites.
Best chance of more widespread showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm arrives on Friday ahead of a cold front, and with
it a more appreciable risk of sub- VFR conditions. Back to VFR
with dry high pres building in this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
A pinched surface gradient has relaxed with nerly winds
diminishing to 10-20 kt and seas 3-4 ft, with some 5 ft sets
outer waters. Light nerly winds will cont tonight into Tue,
while slowly veering to an erly direction.

Outlook (Wed through Sat): Coastal troughing is forecast to
remain in place through at least the middle of the week, with
the strongest gradient and highest winds focused across the
central and southern waters. The flow then begins to become
southeasterly by Thursday in the wake of the inland-advancing
coastal trough and warm front. Winds will cont in the 10-20 kt
range with sub SCA seas. Thursday and beyond, a better chance
for some advected 6+ ft seas as weak low pres develops well
offshore, though winds will remain below 20 kt. Cold front
passes through late Friday, with winds turning nwrly behind the
fropa but should cont remaining below SCA thresholds. High 6+
ft seas may linger into Sat however.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/TL
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...CQD/TL