952
FXUS62 KMHX 291101
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
701 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control across the Southeast into
early next week. A weak coastal trough is forecast to develop
late this weekend into early next week while at the same time,
a weak low pressure system may develop well offshore the
Southeast coast early next week as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 7 AM Fri...Another beautiful day is in store with low
humidity, plenty of sunshine and near normal temperatures. A
large scale upper level trough will slide eastward today with
some subtle height rises expected across Eastern NC. Weak
subsidence and an abundance of dry air through most levels of
the atmosphere will keep conditions dry, with only a few clouds
expected. Low level thicknesses rise slightly, which should
allow highs to reach the low to mid 80s across the area under
full sun.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 2 AM Fri...Quiet conditions are expected again tonight
with little change in the weather pattern. High pressure just
offshore should allow for winds to decouple inland, and with
skies remaining clear, strong radiational cooling is possible
with lows dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s inland, and mid
to upper 60s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 AM Fri...

Key Messages

 - Below normal temperatures expected through midweek next week

 - Low pressure will remain well off the coast early next week
   resulting in limited impacts across ENC.

More of a fall like pattern across the Eastern Seaboard over the
next several days as upper level troughing will remain over the
East Coast inviting below avg temps and dry weather for the
most part across ENC. We will be monitoring the potential for a
slightly more active pattern later next week but as discussed
in previous updates, uncertainty in the forecast beyond the
next 2-3 days is above average.

Saturday through Tuesday...In the upper levels, will have an
upper level low situated across the Northeast on Sat which will
gradually push into the Canadian Maritimes by early next week
while broad upper troughing remains over the Eastern Seaboard.
Southern Stream Jet Stream will strengthen slightly as a
shortwave traverses the Deep South and Gulf Coast while at the
same time a shortwave will push into the Mid-Atlantic allowing
the broad troughing over the Eastern Seaboard to deepen slightly
Sunday night into Monday. Current guidance suggests an upper
level low will then cut off from this troughing Mon night into
Tue, though guidance vary where this occurs with the GFS being
the outlier, with this low centered across the Mid-Atlantic
while the ECWMF and Canadian guidance and ensembles have this
low noted further north in the Northeast.

At the surface will have a weakening cold front pushing across the
Carolinas and quickly dissipating into a coastal trough on Sunday
while cool high pressure over the Ohio River Valley oozes south and
east into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Coastal trough will remain
in place through Tuesday while high pressure remains
entrenched across the Eastern CONUS. Low pressure may develop
well to the south and east of ENC early next week as well along
a baroclinic zone but trends have continued to suggest this low
will remain well offshore and offer little in the way of impacts
to the CWA. This will keep things generally dry across ENC
outside of some isolated shower activity along the
aforementioned front on Sat and then some isolate to widely
scattered showers and tstms noted along the immediate coast and
OBX in association with the coastal trough Sun/Mon/Tue. On Tue
will have a stronger and deeper trough and associated mid level
shortwave diving SE`wards from the Canadian Prairies into the
Northern Plains and this trough will be the next potential
weather maker later this week. Temps will continue to remain
slightly below avg through Tue with highs reaching the low to
mid 80s inland and mid to upper 70s along the OBX.

Wed through end of next week... Broad troughing remains
overhead with the aforementioned deepening upper trough in the
Northern Plains continuing to push south and east into the end
of the week. Uncertainty in the overall evolution of this
pattern remains high as guidance remains rather spread on the
strength and timing of this trough. At the surface high pressure
ridging pushes east and a cold front approaches from the west.
As this occurs precip chances are forecast to increase from Wed
onwards into the end of the week. Though will note given the
high uncertainty in the forecast this will likely change in the
coming days. Temps remain below avg through the end of the
period with upper troughing remaining overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday Morning/...
As of 7 AM Fri...VFR conditions are expected through Saturday
as dry high pressure remains over the region. High clouds over
the coast this morning will soon push offshore, and skies will
then remain mostly clear through tomorrow morning. Despite
strong radiational cooling tonight, fog development is not
expected due to an abundance of low level dry air.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 215 AM Fri...Primarily VFR conditions are forecast
through the long term period with low to very low chances of
sub-VFR conditions within any shower or tstm that develop Sat
afternoon and on the afternoon and evenings from Sun onwards as
precip chances remain limited at best with high pressure in
control of the weather pattern. Winds continue to remain light
and eventually become NE`rly this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 7 AM Fri...Great boating conditions will continue into
this weekend with high pressure sliding offshore today. Winds
will be NW/NNW at 10-15 kts this morning, and then become light
and variable early this afternoon before coming around to the
SSW at 5-10 kts. SW winds continue tonight at 5-15 kts. Seas
will be mostly 1-3 ft through the period.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 215 AM Fri... We start the period out under benign
boating conditions with light and variable winds and 1-2 ft seas
noted across our waters Sat morning. A weak cold front will
then track across ENC and likely dissipate into a coastal trough
Sat night with this coastal trough then moving little into next
week. This will allow winds to become NE`rly at 10-15 kts by
Sat evening across all our waters with these winds persisting
into Sun afternoon. Seas along our coastal waters build slightly
to 1-3 ft during this timeframe. Winds then increase further
Sun afternoon and evening to 15-20 kts with a few gusts up near
25 kts at times as high pressure building in from the north and
west interacts with the aforementioned coastal trough
tightening the pressure gradient across the area slightly. These
elevated NE`rly winds then continue through Tuesday as incoming
high pressure system moves little. Seas across our coastal
waters then gradually build through Sun night to 4-6 ft and
remain at these heights into Tue thus bringing a low end threat
for some SCA conditions starting on Mon. With a coastal trough
moving little from SUn onwards could see daily chances for
showers and tstms across our coastal waters as well though
activity would be isolated to widely scattered in nature.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...SGK/RCF
MARINE...SGK/RCF