105
FXUS62 KMHX 171026
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
626 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Portions of the Heat Advisory from Craven and Pamlico County
south to the Crystal Coast have been upgraded to an extreme
heat warning.

Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and humid temps persist across ENC into late in the
week, peaking today.

2) Isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity will pose a marginal risk for strong storms and
isolated flash flooding Monday evening.

3) Climo precip chances are expected Tuesday and Wednesday
before the next front tracks across the area later in the week
bringing more widespread unsettled weather to ENC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Latest surface analysis shows previously
mentioned warm front just off the coast this morning with
isolated shower and thunderstorm activity riding SE`wards along
this front. A surface trough is also noted across the Triad
vicinity which has produced some weakening showers and isolated
tstms that are tracking west from central NC towards ENC this
morning. While I have left PoPs sub mentionable this morning
across the area, can`t rule out a stray sprinkle mainly along
northern portions of ENC before this aforementioned trough
exits the region.

Overall the upper level pattern will remain the same in the
coming days with upper ridging settled into the Southeast
promoting westerly flow into midweek before flow backs and
becomes SW`rly later this week out ahead of an incoming upper
level trough. At the mid levels, shortwave currently in the Mid-
Atlantic vicinity will push offshore this morning with next weak
shortwave not approaching the area until this evening. From Tue
onwards we likely see a series of weak shortwaves that track
across the region and are diurnal in nature before the next
significant shortwave approaches the region this weekend.

Well what does this mean for us at ENC as far as ambient
weather goes? Low level thicknesses across the region today
increase to about 1435-1440+ m under westerly downslope flow.
This westerly flow will pin the seabreeze closer to the coast
today as a result. This will set the stage for highs in the mid
to upper 90s inland with upper 80s to low 90s noted along the
OBX. Any leftover debris clouds from overnight activity is
forecast to quickly dissipate today allowing for mo clear skies
into the afternoon. Current forecast reflects dewpoints in the
mid to upper 70s inland and potentially nearing 80 behind the
pinned seabreeze. There is some uncertainty with how much mixing
occurs today as W`rly downsloping flow does tend to mix us out
more than forecast, but even then, the most aggressive guidance
only suggests dewpoints in the low 70s across the inner Coastal
Plain worst case. Regardless of mixing, with highs in the mid
to upper 90s today, widespread heat indices of 105-110F are
expected across ENC with the heat advisory remaining in place
across Lenoir, Greene, Beaufort, Washington, Tyrrell, Dare, and
Hyde Counties. The one change I did make this forecast package
was to upgrade portions of the heat advisory across Duplin,
Onslow, Carteret, Craven, Jones, and Pamlico County to an
extreme heat warning as heat indices look to get to about
110-115F this afternoon. This area has the highest probability
of reaching higher end heat impacts given its proximity to the
seabreeze and is supported by HREF probs around 40-60% of
HI greater than 109F this afternoon.

A weak frontal boundary quickly pushes across NC tonight before
stalling along the coast. Like this weekend, southern counties
will likely remain hot and humid while Albemarle and vicinity
see some modest relief. A more widespread cooldown, however, is
on the horizon late week as a stronger cold front dives out of
Canada and across the eastern CONUS. Overall, this just means
additional heat headlines will be likely Tue/Wed/Thurs across
at least portions of ENC before the second stronger front
approaches Fri into this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Latest surface analysis shows previously
mentioned warm front just off the coast this morning with
isolated shower and thunderstorm activity riding SE`wards along
this front near the Albemarle Sound. A surface trough is also
noted across the Triad vicinity which has produced some
weakening showers and isolated tstms that are tracking west from
central NC towards ENC this morning.

Upper ridging is settled into the Southeast promoting westerly
flow into midweek before flow backs and becomes SW`rly later
this week out ahead of an incoming upper level trough. At the
mid levels, shortwave currently in the Mid-Atlantic vicinity
will push offshore this morning with next weak shortwave not
approaching the area until this evening.

A weakening cold front approaches from the north and west this
evening. Aforementioned heat and humidity will easily boost
instability with a forecast 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE, but shear
will once again be lacking, generally 20 kt or less, and the
next shortwave will not approach the area until later this
evening. PWATs remain at or above 2" so conditions will once
again be favorable for a stronger storm or two to impact the
area bringing a damaging wind, frequent lightning, and
torrential rain threat. We may see slightly less seabreeze
activity today given westerly downslope flow with any precip
today primarily coming from the incoming front this evening.
Any upstream convection associated with this front will sweep
E`wards this evening into ENC with the potential for some
organized complexes of thunderstorms to impact ENC before
activity dissipates late tonight. This activity would pose a low
end severe threat with damaging winds being the primary hazard
within the strongest storms. AI NWP guidance has elevated
probabilities, which are plausible since northwest flow events
tend to overperform across eastern NC.

KEY MESSAGE 3...No real changes for the extended forecast just
yet as hot and humid conditions persist into the end of the
week. A brief return to more climo PoPs is forecast Tue and Wed
with the seabreeze and stalled front offshore being the main
focus for showers and thunderstorms. Stronger front is likely to
approach the region and stall late week, serving to both offer
a reprieve from oppressive heat and humidity, and a chance of
strong to severe thunderstorms as shear increases alongside the
boundary with stronger troughing. Given how far out this is,
there are still several details to hammer out but will be
monitoring trends in the forecast for any adjustments in timing
and strength of this front in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Primarily VFR conditions are noted across ENC this morning with
the lone exception being across portions of the OBX and east
Carteret County where patchy MVFR/IFR low stratus at about
800-1500 ft and patchy MIFG is noted this morning. Expect any
low cloud and patchy MIFG to quickly dissipate within the next
few hours allowing for mo clear skies and VFR conditions across
all of ENC into this evening. SW winds will remain light this
morning, but will turn to more of a W to NW direction this
afternoon across inland zones with S`rly flow persisting along
the OBX and the immediate coast today. Slightly drier air and
weak lift should keep the TSRA risk low for much of the day. The
risk then looks to increase during the evening hours as a cold
front approaches from the west. However, given inherent
uncertainty with tstm impacts at TAF sites this evening have
kept all TAF sites precip free for now. Will need to evaluate
the threat in coming TAF cycles and a SHRA/TSRA mention may be
added in coming updates, main threat time looks to be between
00-06Z Tue.

Outlook (Tuesday through Friday): Expecting primarily VFR
conditions from Tue through Thurs. The lone exceptions would be
under isolated to widely scattered diurnally driven seabreeze
shower and thunderstorm activity each day. No significant fog or
low stratus concerns each night either but trends will have to
be monitored in case the threat increases in the coming days.
Yet another front begins to approach from the west Friday once
again bringing increased shower and thunderstorm risks as well
as increasing risks for sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Boating conditions remain benign across our waters this morning
with widespread 5-15 kt SW`rly winds and 15-20 kt gusts. Seas
generally remain around 2-3 ft as well across the coastal waters
this morning. Southwest flow will strengthen this afternoon and
evening with tightening thermal gradient in the afternoon, and
we may see some infrequent gusts to 25 kt across sounds and
near- shore waters. While normally gusts to 25 kts would result
in small craft advisories being issued across portions of our
waters given the infrequent nature and lower probability of this
occuring have elected to remain headline free across our waters
today and tonight. Elevated SW`rly winds begin to ease late
tonight into Tue morning back down to 5-10 kts. Seas likely
climb up to 3 to 4 feet briefly this afternoon and evening.
Additional showers and thunderstorms likely tonight as a front
approaches our waters.

Outlook (Tuesday through Friday): Benign boating conditions
persist Tues and Wed with eyes to next potential SCA late next
week with a stronger frontal boundary. Each day will bring a low
to moderate risk (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms to area
waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 08/17 (Monday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern       96 / 1988     (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras  93 / 2021     (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     99 / 1988     (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City  93 / 1984     (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       101 / 1938     (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville   97 / 1995     (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-091-203>205.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for NCZ090-092-094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS/RCF
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...MS/RCF