Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
195 FXUS62 KMHX 031110 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 710 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide quiet weather through the end of the week with a gradual warming trend. A cold front will move through the area this weekend, with high pressure building in late weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 230 AM Wed...General weather pattern over the past couple of days prevails this morning with broad troughing over much of the central and eastern CONUS, although mid-level heights will drop a bit today as a stronger closed low over the Canadian prairies dives southeastward towards the Great Lakes through the period. At the surface, high pressure wedge remains in place sandwiched between the stalled front still well offshore and a second, deepening cyclone over far southern Ontario ahead of the aforementioned Prairie low. Overnight...Some very transient and patchy fog has developed across the inner coastal plain as expected while winds have decoupled. Expecting this to continue until sunrise, but coverage will be limited and impacts should not rise much above nuisance levels. Today...Sensible weather today is quiet while the surface high begins to weaken while cold front from the Canadian low begins to encroach on the Midwest. Expecting a bit less cloud cover than yesterday with some mid to low level dry air advection from the NW. Despite lower upper level heights insolation will keep temps similar or a couple degrees higher than yesterday in the low 80s, upper 70s along the coast. This is still slightly below normal for early September. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... As of 240 AM Wed...Another quiet and mainly clear night, this time with more widespread decoupling as surface high weakens further. As front nears, winds will weakly veer more onshore and we will see some modest increase in low level moisture before sunrise. This will marginally increase the risk for some fog early tomorrow morning, but guidance does not portend anything widespread. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 2 AM Wed... Key Messages - Temperatures gradually warming late week into Saturday - Mostly dry this week, with precip chances increasing this weekend into early next week Thursday through Friday...The pattern will remain active with sfc high pressure ridging in from the NE, upper troughing over the eastern US while multiple shortwaves pivot through. Weak cold front will approach the area Thu night and Friday, though will likely stall and dissipate to the west. Despite the pattern, looks to remain mostly dry over eastern NC, with only potential for isolated showers. Temps will continue to gradually warm closer to climo by the end of the week as NNE flow becomes more S`rly and low level thicknesses increase. Temps will climb back towards 90 deg inland Fri. Saturday through Tuesday...Complex low pressure system will continue to push through Canada, while upper trough pivots through the eastern US, and cold front approaches from the west. Still some timing differences with the frontal passage, but general consensus still looks like Saturday night into early Sunday. Ahead of the front Saturday, moist SSW flow will allow for temps to warm into the low 90s inland and mid/upper 80s along the coast. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible Sat and Sat night. Svr risk looks low at this time. High pressure will build in from the north Sunday and early next week. Post frontal NE flow will allow for drier and cooler air to filter back into the region. High temps will fall back into the upper 70s to low 80s, and lows in the 60s-70 deg. Weak wedge may set up behind the front and into early next week, which would give way to NE-E flow, more clouds than sun and increased shower chances. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 12z Thursday/... As of 710 AM Wed...Some very thin areas of fog did form overnight for a few coastal plain terminals, but this will quickly burn off with increased insolation. VFR conditions are otherwise expected today with light northeasterly winds under weakening high pressure through the day. Winds collapse quickly tonight as high gives way to an approaching front from the northwest and flow veers onshore early Thurs. Patchy fog threat once again returns tomorrow, with marginally more coverage possible than this morning. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 2 AM Wed...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. While probs remains low, there will be potential for patchy sub-VFR fog and/or stratus each morning. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 250 AM Wed...Marine conditions slowly improving this morning as waters continue to sit between high pressure wedge inland and low pressure migrating along a stalled frontal boundary a few hundred miles offshore. High pressure is beginning to weaken as cold front encroaches from the northwest, and winds are modestly lighter at 15-20 kt. Seas are down to 4-5 feet, although a few isolated 6 footers are probably lingering across outer central waters. Expecting winds to lay down further through the day as high continues to steadily weaken. Winds of 10-15 kt expected to prevail through the day, but after sunset this falls further to 10 kt or less. Consequently, seas will continue to slowly ebb through the period. All SCA headlines have been dropped for this forecast package. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 2 AM Wed...Winds expected to remain light, gradually veering to the E-SE Thu and S-SW Fri and Sat as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will move through the waters Saturday night and early Sunday. Moderate NNE flow will develop behind the front Sunday 10-15 kt, increasing early next week. Seas will remain at 2-4 ft into the weekend. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...MS SHORT TERM...MS LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...CQD/MS MARINE...CQD/MS