742
FXUS62 KMHX 051943
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
243 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Confidence has increased on timing of shower/tstorm chances
Friday.

Post-frontal marine winds trended up, still below 25 kt gusts

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm with increasing moisture and isolated showers today.

2) Widespread showers and a few severe thunderstorms possible
ahead of a cold front on Friday.

3) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the frontal passage
this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A couple of slow moving to stationary boundaries
have been evident on satellite since this morning, and along
these boundaries scattered showers are ongoing. Dry air at low
levels (700-800mb) and at mid levels (~500mb) as denoted on the
12Z MHX sounding should help keep showers shallow and brief in
nature, and as a result thunder chances remain low through
today. With a loss of daytime heating once the sun sets,
coverage of shower should come down drastically.

We are pretty warm with temps in the low 80s inland, mid 70s
along the coast. Highs shouldn`t get much higher than this,
especially with cloud cover increasing inland.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Friday - Still looks like widespread showers
and a few thunderstorms breaking out during the afternoon into
evening as a cold front moves through Eastern NC. Ahead of the
front, we could see more isolated to scattered showers moving SW
to NE inland in the morning hours, still uncertain how much of
an impact these have to instability later on in the day.
Circling back to Friday afternoon, anomalous moisture and
higher-than-normal instability (assuming morning showers have
little to no impacT) for early November is expected, as
indicated by EFI highlighting CAPE vals nearing the 80th
percentile. Have maintained thunder threat for inland areas
where the EFI is highlighting the higher CAPE/Shear indices
inland, and where highest instability and shear will reside.
Confidence is increasing on the best forcing lining up with peak
heating, a strong to severe thunderstorm threat would
materialize for areas especially along and west of the
Jacksonville/New Bern/Washington, NC corridor in the afternoon
and early evening Main threat would be damaging wind gusts. With
some weak helicity present a brief, weak tornado can`t be ruled
out. The front sweeps offshore late Friday with any remaining
showers exiting the OBX around or shortly after midnight Friday
night.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Good agreement amongst models with frontal
passage late Friday, allowing a more seasonably dry airmass to
usher in for the weekend. Return to mostly sunny skies and
highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Sat, then cooler yet for Sun
with 60-65. Lows will be in the 40s, with some 30s for some of
the normally colder spots. We will have to monitor the temp
forecast for any frost concerns Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast confidence is moderate over the next 24 hours.

VFR skies across the board with some isolated weak showers in
the region. sct/bkn cu field should dissipate with a loss of
daytime heating. Later tonight, guidance isn`t really suggesting
any low stratus, and we should have winds elevated enough to
preclude a fog threat. However, given how the past two morning
have gone and low level moisture still in place, it is possible
guidance is just not getting a good grasp of the situation. With
that in mind, keeping a sct MVFR ceiling mention for most TAF
sites tonight, but more aggressive flight restrictions may be
necessitated with later updates. More SHRA may begin
encroaching on the area from the west in the morning hours as
well, as a cold front slowly edges east through central NC. Once
we get towards the afternoon, the front is at our doorstep and
TSRA risk with some gusty winds increases.

Outlook: On Friday, a cold front is forecast to move through with an
increased risk of SHRA and TSRA. Some of the strongest TSRA may be
accompanied by a risk of strong winds of 40kt+. Very heavy rain and
IFR/LIFR VIS will be possible as well. The northwest wind shift
along the front is expected to occur Friday evening or Friday night.
A drier northwesterly flow behind the front should then support
mainly VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Light to moderate southerly winds will continue through the
period (strongest across the outer southern and central waters).
Seas will persist at 3-5 ft nearshore and 4-6 ft offshore
through Friday. Scattered light showers will be possible through
today. Friday, cold front moves through in the evening into
overnight hours for our waters. Ahead of the front, strong
thunderstorms capable of gusty winds and a brief waterspout are
possible. Behind the front, winds switch to the north/northwest,
gusting to near 20 knots.

Outlook (Friday night through Monday): Cold front pushes
offshore, with north/northwest winds gusting to 20-25 knots
behind it. Tstorm threat pushes offshore with the front. High
builds in this weekend into next week, keeping winds below 20
kts and skies rain-free. Waves also go down as a result.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DAG/RJ
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...DAG/RJ