824
FXUS62 KMHX 021730
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
130 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide quiet weather through the end of the
week with a gradual warming trend. A cold front will move
through the area this weekend, with high pressure building in
late weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 125 PM Tue...Another beautiful afternoon with temps near
80 and continued low dew points, making for perfect fall
weather. An expansive CU field now, especially over the northern
two thirds of the forecast area now will fade toward sunset.
Only concern tonight will be patchy fog. With calm conditions
and a clear sky, soundings all point to some patchy fog inland.
Will include in the forecast based on ideal conditions. Main
lacking factor will be the recent dry weather and a very shallow
nature to the moisture. Lows in the 50s inland to near 70 along
the Outer Banks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 125 Tue...Very similar weather expected Wednesday. Main
different will be a tad more sunshine, with model soundings not
showing a layer of moisture around 5,000 feet like we have
today. So more of a mostly sunny sky Wednesday with temps
similar or generally in the lower 80s. A bit cooler on the
Outer Banks with a flow off the ocean.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 AM Tue...

Key Messages

 - Temperatures gradually warming late week into Saturday

 - Mostly dry this week, with precip chances increasing this
   weekend into early next week

Wednesday through Friday...The pattern will remain active with
sfc high pressure ridging in from the NE, upper troughing over
the eastern US while multiple shortwaves pivot through. Weak
cold front will approach the area Thu night and Friday, though
will likely stall and dissipate to the west. Despite the
pattern, looks to remain mostly dry over eastern NC, with only
potential for isolated showers. Temps remain below avg Wed
gradually warming closer to climo by the end of the week as
NE`rly flow becomes more S`rly and low level thicknesses
increase. Temps will climb back towards 90 deg inland Fri.

Saturday through Monday...Complex low pressure system will
continue to push through Canada, while upper trough pivots
through the eastern US, and cold front approaches from the west.
Still some timing differences with the frontal passage, but
general consensus at this time looks like Saturday night into
early Sunday. Ahead of the front Saturday, moist SSW flow will
allow for temps to warm into the low 90s inland and mid/upper
80s along the coast. Isolated to widely scattered showers and
storms will be possible Sat and Sat night. Svr risk looks low at
this time. High pressure will build in from the north Sunday
and early next week. Post frontal NE flow will allow for drier
and cooler air to filter back into the region. High temps will
fall back into the upper 70s to low 80s, and lows in the 60s-70
deg. Sct showers and iso storms Sun into early next week, with
highest chances during peak heating. Instability will remain
limited with onshore flow.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 12z Thursday/...
As of 125 PM Tues...Confidence increasing in at least some
mention of patchy fog at the terminals tonight, especially KISO
and KPGV. As the previous forecaster mentioned, not a lot of
change versus last night, but our wind should be closer to calm.
Most model guidance shows a very shallow layer of moisture
developing near the surface, especially inland, where overnight
lows dip toward the crossover temp (60). Enough of a signal to
include a tempo group for MVFR vsbys right now, but with such a
shallow nature, the fog may be quite patchy and obs may be
bouncy with restrictions.

VFR Wednesday with light northeast winds.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Saturday/...
As of 215 AM Tue...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. While probs remains low, there will be potential for
patchy sub-VFR fog and/or stratus each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 125 PM Tue...Current SCA in good shape. Elected to extend
the SCA for the northern waters by just a few more hours with
buoys showing 6 foot seas in multiple spots off the coast. With
a continued downward trend in winds, seas are still expected to
diminish overnight and the rest of the SCA is left as is.

Northeast winds by Wednesday drop below 15 KTS, with seas
continuing to subside to 2 to 4 feet.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Saturday/... As of 215 AM Tue...NNE
winds 10-20 kt will grad ease to 5-15 kt through the day Wed
with seas 3-5 ft subsiding to 2-4 ft, as high pressure ridges in
from the north. Winds expected to remain light but gradually
veer to the E-SE Thu and S-SW Fri and Sat as a cold front
approaches from the west. Seas will remain at 2-4 ft late Wed
into the first part of the weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     199-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...EH
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...EH/CQD
MARINE...CQD/MS