346
FXUS62 KMHX 282327
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
727 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issued a Small Craft Advisory through tonight for the Duck to
Oregon Inlet zone for seas to 6 feet.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) King Tides will bring the potential for continued minor
coastal flooding through Thursday.

2) Warming temps to above climo mid to late week with mainly dry
dry conditions expected. Small rain chances late Sunday into
beginning of the work week.

Marine: Elevated seas will cont the SCA conditions through
Thursday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Quasi stationary high pres sprawling across the
Mid- Atlantic and low pressure well off the FL coast will
result in cont northeasterly flow across the region today. The
high waves combined with King Tides this week will lead to
additional minor coastal flooding impacts on the OBX.

Minor coastal flooding of vulnerable locations will be likely
well into this week despite the diminishing of winds, with
"sunny day" flooding across much of the tidal regions of
coastal ENC around times of high tide, then slowly improve as
the King Tides ease later in the week and into the weekend.
Coastal flood advisories continue through the high tide cycle on
Thursday with the potential to be extended further in time.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Quasi stationary dry high pres cont to sprawl
across the region with weak coastal troughing offshore. Some
moisture has pushed inland today bringing a few sprinkles or
light rain showers to locations south of highway 70, as well
as portions of the OBX. For the latter half of the week into
the weekend, hts/thicknesses build further, and temps climbing
back to ~10 degrees above climo with highs upr 70s to near 80
inland to low 70s OBX. Low temps will warm above climo as well
with readings in the mid 50s for most locales away from the
immediate coast.

High pres ridge may begin to break down as early as Sunday, but
recent runs from EC/AIFS cont to keep a stronger high in place.
May have to wait until a stronger srn stream system sweeps
across the Deep South and into the region later next week to
see next good chance for appreciable rain. For now, pops remain
quite low for late Sun into Mon ~30% to account for the small
shower chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast confidence is moderate over the next 24 hours.

A moist easterly flow, plus weak low-level lift, appears to be what
is supporting SCT to BKN MVFR/VFR level clouds and SCT -SHRA. The
SHRA should decrease in coverage overnight, but the expectation is
that low CIGs will remain a potential impact. Like last night, there
is some uncertainty regarding stratus vs FG. However, the signal for
stratus appears to be stronger tonight, and the TAFs reflect this.
The greatest risk of a longer period of IFR, or lower, conditions is
at KISO and KPGV, with a modest risk at KOAJ and KEWN. At KMRH, the
risk of IFR, or lower, conditions appears the lowest. Low clouds are
likely to linger into the day Thursday, but heights should
gradually rise back to MVFR/VFR.

Outlook (Thu night through Sun): Expect VFR conditions to
continue during the daytime through at least Sun with quasi-
stationary high pres over the region. Coastal sections could see
ocnl MVFR STCU at times with flow cont off the Atlantic, as
well as bouts of overnight fg and low stratus inland with winds
quite calm the next several nights.

&&

.MARINE...
Currently seeing E to NE winds around 10-20 kt across the waters
with gust around 25-30 kt near the Gulf Stream, and seas around
5 to 7 ft. Buoys east of Nags Head reporting 6 ft seas, so have
added the waters from Duck to Oregon Inlet to the SCA through
tonight. SCA continues through Thursday evening south of Oregon
Inlet as it will take a while longer for seas to subside near
the Gulf Stream. Winds will gradually diminish tonight into
Thursday.

Outlook (Thu night through Sun): Winds/seas diminish by Thu
evening, though respite may be rather short-lived, as building
seas are possible once again later in the weekend into early
next week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ195-196-
     199-203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Thursday night for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/TL/RJ
AVIATION...RM/TL
MARINE...SK/TL/RJ