851
FXUS62 KMHX 190700
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased NE winds a bit today.

Decreased pops for today and Sunday..

Updated 19/06Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly dry this weekend, then periods of unsettled weather
returns early next week.

2) Increased marine impacts mid week as high waves and
potentially strong winds impact the OBX and adjacent waters and
sounds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front progged to cont moving well offshore
today. Thus deep layer nerly flow expected for the majority of
ENC. Have cut back on pops as a result, now only maintaining
pops south of Hwy 70. Best moisture will reside acrs the far
swrn zones, where this area stands the best chance of receiving
some showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder this afternoon.
High pres in control for Sunday means a drier fcst on tap, and
have cut back on pops as well. Next appreciable chance of rain
arrives Mon and Tue as yet another frontal boundary pushes
southward.

Key Message 2...Next week, a strong high pressure system
becomes anchored acrs New England and ern Canada, while at the
same time low pres develops off the Mid Atlantic coast,
tightening the pressure gradient along the mid- atlantic and
northeast. This will likely usher in stronger NE winds to the
region. Given it is 4-6 days out, there is still much
uncertainty, as both wind speed and direction is dependent on
the placement, strength, and timing of the low. For now there is
good model consensus on at least higher waves 8+ ft at 8+ sec
along the Outer Banks mid- next week. This will be worth keeping
an eye on, as a long fetch of strong winds could bring higher
wave energy towards vulnerable portions of the Outer Banks. It
is too soon to determine specifics at this point and trends will
have to be monitored in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Probabilities of overnight stratus continue with sufficient
low-level moisture trapped under a developing frontal inversion.
However, fcst becomes complicated as a bkn deck of higher level
strato cu has developed and may inhibit the IFR/LIFR stratus
from developing. Due to the NE flow and building frontal
inversion, expect stratus shield to build from northeast to
southwest with some periods of IFR to LIFR if higher level
stratus can mix out some. Cigs will be slow to lift this morning
with relatively weak mixing and low- levels remaining
saturated, and some sites may not break back to VFR until around
16-17z. A couple showers may break out for southern portions of
ENC, with best chances at KOAJ. Have not included mention of
rain in fcst attm as thinking covg will be rather sparse with
frontal boundary now south fo the region.

Outlook (Sun through Wed): Another dry day on Sun but then
another cold front drops in Mon and Tue with a return to
unsettled weather and rain chances. This and the potential cold
air damming pattern develops next week with a risk of prolonged
sub- VFR conditions and breezy NE winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Behind the cold front that has moved through, NE winds of 15+ kt
develop today with gusts aoa 20 kt peaking this afternoon to
early evening. SCA conditions are not expected however and
seas will top out at 3-5 ft this evening.

Outlook (Sun through Wed): Winds and seas should remain below
SCA through the weekend. Sunday winds veer to srly by late day,
then become nwerly behind yet another fropa on Monday, though
speeds remain generally in the 5-15 kt range Sun into Mon with
seas 2-4 ft. NE Winds and seas begin to build Tuesday PM or Wed
as pressure gradient tightens as we are sandwiched between a
strong high to our north and a non- tropical low developing
offshore. There is the potential for nerly gales by Wed though
still lots of uncertainty on how close and strong the offshore
low pres becomes. What is more certain is a long duration of
dangerous seas of 8-10+ ft developing by mid week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL/RJ
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...TL/RJ