052
FXUS62 KMHX 300200
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control across the Eastern NC
through the weekend. A weak low pressure system may develop
along the Southeast coast early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 10 PM Fri...No big changes with late eve update. Lows in
the 50s away from the beaches, to mid/upr 60s immediate coast
still expected.

Prev disc... As of 7 PM Fri...No big changes with eve update.
Did lower min T`s by a degree or two, as persistence says that
conditions very similar to last night. Afternoon TD`s fell into
the 50s, and with the dry atms, skc skies, and calm/light winds,
excellent rad cooling will prevail.


Prev disc... As of 2 PM Friday...High pressure continues across
the area this afternoon with some shallow fair- wx strato-
cumulus development. Temps have climbed into the mid 80s away
from the coast with low 80s along the coast. A weak seabreeze is
apparent on KMHX radar across Onslow/Carteret counties, with
southerly winds across the Outer Banks and Pamlico Sound,
elsewhere light northwesterly winds dominate the area. Dew
points remain pleasant in the 50s to lower 60s.

A large scale upper level trough will slide eastward through
tonight with some subtle height rises. Weak subsidence and an
abundance of dry air through most levels of the atmosphere will
keep conditions dry overnight. Diurnal cumulus should subside
shortly after sunset. Winds should decouple across most inland
locations with mostly clear skies allowing for strong
radiational cooling once again. Low temps tonight will fall
into the upper 50s to lower 60s for inland locations with upper
60s to lower 70s along the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM Friday...Weak surface ridge will shift off the
coast Saturday morning. A weak shortwave trough will move into
the area from the southwest by the afternoon, with a weak
surface boundary helping to provide some lift which may result
in some isolated showers for inland locations. Given weak
instability, continued mention of thunder but do not anticipate
strong convection to yield much storm risk. Increased cloud
cover by the afternoon may inhibit max heating in some
locations. Max temps similar to today/Friday, with highs into
the mid 80s inland and low 80s along the coast/OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 AM Fri...

Key Messages

 - Below normal temperatures expected through midweek next week

 - Low pressure will remain well off the coast early next week
   resulting in limited impacts across ENC.

More of a fall like pattern across the Eastern Seaboard over the
next several days as upper level troughing will remain over the
East Coast inviting below avg temps and dry weather for the
most part across ENC. We will be monitoring the potential for a
slightly more active pattern later next week but as discussed
in previous updates, uncertainty in the forecast beyond the
next 2-3 days is above average.

Saturday through Tuesday...In the upper levels, will have an
upper level low situated across the Northeast on Sat which will
gradually push into the Canadian Maritimes by early next week
while broad upper troughing remains over the Eastern Seaboard.
Southern Stream Jet Stream will strengthen slightly as a
shortwave traverses the Deep South and Gulf Coast while at the
same time a shortwave will push into the Mid-Atlantic allowing
the broad troughing over the Eastern Seaboard to deepen slightly
Sunday night into Monday. Current guidance suggests an upper
level low will then cut off from this troughing Mon night into
Tue, though guidance vary where this occurs with the GFS being
the outlier, with this low centered across the Mid-Atlantic
while the ECWMF and Canadian guidance and ensembles have this
low noted further north in the Northeast.

At the surface will have a weakening cold front pushing across the
Carolinas and quickly dissipating into a coastal trough on Sunday
while cool high pressure over the Ohio River Valley oozes south and
east into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Coastal trough will remain
in place through Tuesday while high pressure remains
entrenched across the Eastern CONUS. Low pressure may develop
well to the south and east of ENC early next week as well along
a baroclinic zone but trends have continued to suggest this low
will remain well offshore and offer little in the way of impacts
to the CWA. This will keep things generally dry across ENC
outside of some isolated shower activity along the
aforementioned front on Sat and then some isolate to widely
scattered showers and tstms noted along the immediate coast and
OBX in association with the coastal trough Sun/Mon/Tue. On Tue
will have a stronger and deeper trough and associated mid level
shortwave diving SE`wards from the Canadian Prairies into the
Northern Plains and this trough will be the next potential
weather maker later this week. Temps will continue to remain
slightly below avg through Tue with highs reaching the low to
mid 80s inland and mid to upper 70s along the OBX.

Wed through end of next week... Broad troughing remains
overhead with the aforementioned deepening upper trough in the
Northern Plains continuing to push south and east into the end
of the week. Uncertainty in the overall evolution of this
pattern remains high as guidance remains rather spread on the
strength and timing of this trough. At the surface high pressure
ridging pushes east and a cold front approaches from the west.
As this occurs precip chances are forecast to increase from Wed
onwards into the end of the week. Though will note given the
high uncertainty in the forecast this will likely change in the
coming days. Temps remain below avg through the end of the
period with upper troughing remaining overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 7 PM Friday...VFR conditions are expected through
Saturday as dry high pressure remains over the region. Despite
strong radiational cooling tonight, fog development is not
expected due to an abundance of low level dry air. Low
probability of showers/thunderstorms Saturday afternoon but
mainly east of the outer Coastal Plain KISO and KPGV.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 215 AM Fri...Primarily VFR conditions are forecast
through the long term period with low to very low chances of
sub-VFR conditions within any shower or tstm that develop from
Sun onwards as precip chances remain limited at best with high
pressure in control of the weather pattern. Winds continue to
remain light and eventually become Northeasterly this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 220 PM Friday...Great boating conditions will continue
into this weekend with high pressure sliding offshore through
Saturday morning. Winds will become SSW at 5-10 kts this
afternoon and continue tonight at 5-15 kts. Winds shift back
northerly late tonight into Saturday morning as the surface high
shifts off the mid-Atlantic coast, with winds eventually
becoming NE 5-15 kt by Saturday afternoon, strongest across the
central and northern waters. Seas will be mostly 1-3 ft through
the period.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 215 AM Fri...A weak cold front will likely dissipate into
a coastal trough Sat night, with this coastal trough then
moving little into next week. This will allow winds to become
NE at 10-15 kts by Sat evening across all our waters with winds
persisting into Sun afternoon. Seas along our coastal waters
build slightly to 1-3 ft during this timeframe. Winds then
increase further Sun afternoon and evening to 15-20 kts with a
few gusts up near 25 kts at times as high pressure building in
from the north and west interacts with the aforementioned
coastal trough tightening the pressure gradient across the area
slightly. These elevated NE winds then continue through Tuesday
as incoming high pressure system moves little. Seas across our
coastal waters then gradually build through Sun night to 4-6 ft
and remain at these heights into Tue thus bringing a low end
threat for some SCA conditions starting on Mon. With a coastal
trough moving little from SUn onwards could see daily chances
for showers and tstms across our coastal waters as well though
activity would be isolated to widely scattered in nature.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...DAG/TL
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...RCF/OJC
AVIATION...TL/RCF
MARINE...DAG/RCF