893
FXUS62 KMHX 011337
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
937 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to wedge over the mid-Atlantic and
Carolinas today, abutting a stalled frontal boundary and low
pressure a couple hundred miles off the coast. Another area of
low pressure may pass over or offshore of the area mid to late
week. A front will move through the area late this weekend and
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 0935 Monday...No changes required for the morning update
with the forecast tracking well.

Previous Disco...Labor Day kicking off on a cool and clear
note as broad mid-level cyclone continues to swirl over the
eastern CONUS, helping to funnel dry air from New England
southward. At the surface, wedge of high pressure remains
entrenched over the mid-Atlantic and into the Carolinas, while
offshore stalled frontal boundary and attendant low pressure
linger. The resultant pressure gradient is helping keep
northeasterly flow elevated across the region, especially for
OBX where frequent gusts of 20-25 kt continue.

Little change in the forecast today from yesterday as overall
pattern remains stagnant. Highs will approach the low 80s in
gusty northeasterly winds, especially in the afternoon. Shower
threat will be predominantly confined offshore where instability
will be maximized between the Gulf Stream and cooler air aloft
in tandem with better moisture, but cannot rule out a brief
shower or two bleeding along the coast. A rumble of thunder or
two cannot be ruled out given modest instability of up to 500
J/kg.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 235 AM Monday...Another cool and partly clear evening in
store as any lingering shower threat along the coast comes to an
end. Guidance hints at a modest increase in moisture overnight,
and would not be surprised to see some low stratus attempt to
develop inland. Lows fall into the upper 50s to low 60s inland,
mid to upper 60s along the water.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 AM Mon...

Key Messages

 - Below normal temperatures expected through midweek

 - Increasing precip chances late weekend and early next week

Tuesday...Troughing will remain over the Eastern Seaboard with an
upper level low centered in the Northeastern CONUS moving little
through Tuesday morning. This upper level low then moves off to the
north and east Tue night into the Canadian Maritimes. Enhanced
southern stream jet will also be noted extending from the
Sargasso Sea west into the Deep South. This is notable as this
will be the catalyst for surface low cyclogenesis off the
Southeast Coast with this low forecast to deepen as it tracks
north and east off the East Coast. At the same time, surface
high pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes but will be
wedging itself into the Mid-Atlantic. This is forecast to keep
the aforementioned low off the coast of the Carolinas into
Tuesday thus limiting any precip threat to along the coast and
OBX. Shortwave diving south across the Northern Plains along the
periphery of the troughing over the Eastern CONUS. This lead
shortwave will be out ahead of a much deeper trough diving
S`wards from the Canadian Prairies towards the Great Lakes. At
the surface this will result in a second area of cyclogenesis in
the Central Plains with this surface cyclone and its associated
front pushing further southwards towards the Gulf Coast States.
Temps will continue to remain below avg through Tue with highs
only getting into the mid 70s to low 80s. Lows get into the
upper 50s inland to upper 60s across the OBX.

Wed through the weekend...Medium to low confidence forecast for
the remainder of the extended range given large model spread in
overall strength and position of upper level troughs and lower
level features later next week. Lead shortwave trough is
forecast to strengthen some on Wed/Thurs allowing broad
troughing over the Eastern CONUS to deepen while southern stream
jet strengthens further allowing for a deepening surface low in
the Gulf. This deepening low is then forecast to track north
and east Wed-Fri. Recent trends have slowed the progression of
this low and trended towards a more offshore track, so impacts
have lowered on Wed but have increased late week as the low
makes its closest point of approach. Will continue sc pops
through the period, lower than climo. As strong upper trough
dives into the Great Lakes and Northeast Wed through Fri with
associated surface low and cold front pushing east towards ENC.
High pressure is then forecast to build in from the west over
the weekend. Again, guidance is having a hard time handling the
strength and position of the upper level troughs, so confidence
in the exact evolution of these features is low. But could see a
low end threat for additional precip on Fri into the weekend.

Temps remain below avg through Wed gradually warming closer
climo by the end of the week as NE`rly flow becomes more S`rly
and low level thicknesses increase. Temps will climb back
towards 90 deg inland late week into the first part of the
weekend. Another front looks to push through the area late
weekend and early next week, which will lead to enhanced precip
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 12z Tuesday/...
As of 710 AM Monday...VFR prevails across all TAF terminals
this morning with some spotty MVFR cigs encroaching on the
Outer Banks in association with modestly deeper moisture pooled
along a stalled frontal boundary offshore. Mainly VFR expected
through the period, although some lower clouds may result in
brief periods of sub- MVFR early this morning. Breezy
conditions yet again in the afternoon with gusts up to 15-20 kt
inland, and up to 25 kt OBX. Isolated shower threat expected for
coastal terminals, but TAF sites should remain dry.

VFR holds steady overnight, although some guidance shows a
slightly stronger signal for low stratus, especially across the
coastal plain where moisture will be modestly deeper and winds
calm. Trends will continue to be monitored in future forecasts,
but for now given high uncertainty did not include in 12z
issuance.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 220 AM Mon...Expect primarily VFR conditions across ENC
through the period. Iso showers and storms possible each
afternoon, with chances below climo.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Labor Day/...
As of 250 AM Monday...

Poor boating conditions ongoing across area waters this morning
as pressure gradient remains pinched between wedge of high
pressure building in from the north and stalled frontal boundary
offshore. Northeast winds of 15-25 kt continue with a few gusts
as high as 30 kt over the outer waters. This has kept seas
elevated, currently at 6-8 feet across Raleigh Bay and waters
north, and closer to 5-7 for Onslow Bay.

Winds will subside gradually today, but still hover at around 20
kt sustained. Seas will not respond much, perhaps falling by a
foot but little more. Did make manual adjustments upward for
forecast seas north of Cape Hatteras given NWPS chronic
underestimation of NE wind swell.

SCA headlines were not changed from the previous forecast, apart
from some modest adjustments to end times across soundside
waters based on model guidance trends.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 220 AM Mon...Breezy NE winds 10-20 kt will continue Tue,
with gradient grad easing Tue night into Wed. SCA conditions
will continue for the coastal waters Tue and Tue evening, with
gusts to 25 kt and seas 4-7 ft. NE winds ease to 5-15 kt Wed
with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft as high pressure ridges in from
the north. Winds continue to remain light but gradually veer to
the E-SE Thu and S-SW Fri as a cold front approaches from the
west. Seas generally remain at 2-4 ft from Wed through late
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 220 AM Mon...Notable low pressure south of ENC, and
strong high pressure over New England, will support persistent,
and strengthening, northeasterly onshore flow along the OBX over
the next few days. This should allow wave heights and periods
to gradually build. At the peak, guidance suggests wave periods
of 8-9 seconds by Tuesday. Normally this wouldn`t be concerning,
but in light of the recent impact to dunes in the wake of
Hurricane Erin, there is at least a low end risk of some minor
coastal issues, mainly for portions of Ocracoke and Hatteras
Islands. This would especially be the case by high tide (~3pm)
on Tuesday as wave periods reach their peak. At this time, no
headlines are planned, but we will continue to monitor water
levels and trends in wave guidance to determine if a locally
higher risk may develop.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     199-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-
     137-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/CEB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...CQD/RCF
AVIATION...CQD/MS
MARINE...CQD/OJC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX