182
FXUS62 KMHX 020748
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
348 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Dense fog advisory has been issued for most of mainland ENC.
Aviation Disco updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure remains in place today with light winds and
near- record high temps. Chance for widespread, some locally
dense, fog this morning.

2) Moisture returns with a cold front and low pressure system
bringing scattered, to at times widespread, showers this
weekend.

3) Cool high pressure behind the early week FROPA leads to more
fall-like temps, but a prolonged period of moderate N-NEerly
winds poses localized coastal flooding concerns for areas along
the OBX with compromised dune structures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SKC, decoupled winds, and increased moisture in
the onshore flow has led to the development of fog. Fog has
become dense at times and a dense fog advisory has been issued
for zones where obs already show VIS<1/2mi like far SWern zones.
This fog is expected to expand to cover zones further N. Obs
and current forecast reflect what the REFS and HREF data have
been suggesting: a 50-70% chance for VIS < 1/4mi across most of
ENC outside of the immediate coast and far Nern tier of
counties. As a result, have a mix of patchy and areas of fog in
the grids across much of ENC through early morning hours.

Approach of a trough aloft in the Ohio River Valley pushing E
will help shunt peaking upper ridging over the Mid- Atlantic
offshore. High temps could flirt with record highs given the
set up (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS).

For reference, normal highs in early October are around 80 degrees,
and forecast highs are in the low 90s inland. Persistent
southerly flow and increasing low- level moisture will lead to
muggier lows as well, well above Normal, mid to upper 60s FRI
and SAT mornings.

KEY MESSAGE 2...No real changes in forecast thinking this weekend
as precipitation chances return as Gulf moisture opens up and a
cold front drapes across the Sern Appalachians and pushes
SEward slowly on SAT. As the next wave aloft approaches, the
moisture will squeeze into ENC, elevating rain chances for the
weekend. While thunderstorms will be possible, the threat for
severe weather is very low as ML CAPES are quite low,
unsurprising for early Oct.

The front loses steam as it approaches the coast and stalls,
ahead of a second reinforcing front spurred from the Great Lakes
by a stronger trough aloft. For now, ensemble guidance has
increased to 60-75% chance of exceeding 1" of storm total rain
with this system and the QPF grids reflect this with some HiRes
blended in to show the higher accumulation potential. Any rain
will be helpful, especially for the coastal plain of ENC that is
currently in moderate to extreme drought.

Where the front ends up SAT night and through the day SUN is
dependent on the strength of the high to the N of the boundary,
and where waves of weak low pressure pressure spin up. This will
dictate what kind of liquid precip we`ll get ahead of the next
front to cross MON. Should the high pressure spill over I95
corridor, there`s a chance that bulk of precip activity over
inland zones will be more stratiform in nature with more
convective precip offshore and over the coast. Today`s model
suites will feature more HiRes solutions now that we`re getting
into the 72hr window.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Precip chances now diminish quickly late Sun
night and by Mon morning should be pushing off the OBX with
drying conditions expected early next week. Stiff NEerly breeze
(peaking MON night into TUE) will lead to building seas and
elevated water levels. Astronomical tide levels will luckily be
on the way down, but seas building to 7ft, though relatively
choppy periodicity of 7 sec, but enough to lead to further
beach and dune erosion concerns across the areas with severely
diminished dune structures. Strongest winds of 20-25 kt with
higher gusts expected MON night into TUE morning. Winds remain
out of the N-NE into late- week, but speeds diminish to 10-15kt
late TUE and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Good radiational cooling conditions with light/calm winds and
clear skies has led to early development of fog and low stratus
across most rtes into Fri morning, mainly between 06-13Z,
bringing IFR or lower conditions. Some terminals may drop below
airport minimums at times, most probable along and south of
Highway 70. Conditions will improve after daybreak Friday with
pred VFR expected by mid to late morning with scattered
afternoon CU.

Outlook (Sat through Tue): Precipitation chances increase for
the weekend as a frontal system approaches from the northwest.
Showers and maybe a few storms possible Saturday and Sunday
with the potential for more extended periods of sub- VFR
conditions. Stronger front crosses MON leading to high pressure
and NEerly wind regime into midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign boating conditions continue across ENC with light S-SWerly
5-10 kt winds and 1-2 ft seas across our area waters as high
pressure persists offshore. S-SW winds build to 10-15kt late
this afternoon Seas generally remain around 1-3 ft at 9-10 sec
into early SAT morning.

Outlook (Sat through Tue): A front will be approaching the area
from the NW and pass through with winds turning NNE and inc a
bit to 10-20 kt for Nern marine zones by SAT afternoon.
Increasing moisture plus weak instability lead to widespread
showers with a few storms. At this time, conditions look to
remain below SCA levels through the weekend, but a secondary
front moves through Monday with SCA winds appearing likely later
Mon into Tue with 15-25 kt winds and seas of 6+ ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 10/02 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern      93/1986  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 89/1986  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville    94/1986  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 88/1954  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       95/1986  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  93/1986  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ044-079-
     080-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL/CEB
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...TL/CEB