543
FXUS62 KMHX 071041
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
641 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Marine headlines have been adjusted based on the latest wind
and wave guidance.

Post-frontal seas were increased on Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and mostly dry conditions continue today, along with an
increased fire danger for all of ENC.

2) Low-end thunderstorm risk this evening into Monday
afternoon.

3) Monitoring the heat risk late-week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Notably warm low-level thicknesses within a
southwesterly low-level flow regime is expected to support
another day of above normal temperatures areawide, but
especially inland away from the coast. Adding to the warmth will
be the potential for some compressional heating ahead of a cold
front approaching from the north. All of this suggests highs
today will be about 1-3 degrees warmer than yesterday, which may
allow a few inland locations to get close to record highs. The
one caveat today is widespread high cloudcover which may
ultimately protect any record highs from being broken. Please
see the CLIMATE section below for additional information on
today`s records.

The hot and dry airmass, plus ongoing drought conditions, will
continue to support elevated fire concerns areawide today. In
coordination with the NCFS, an Increased Fire Danger Statement
is in effect for today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will slide slowly south through
Virginia today, potentially reaching NE NC by this evening. By
tonight, guidance is now in better agreement showing the front
reaching the HWY 70 corridor. The front will then push through
the remainder of ENC during the day Monday.

There may be just enough lift, moisture, and instability along
the front to support isolated showers and weak thunderstorms
around the Albemarle Sound/HWY 64 corridor this evening, and the
forecast will continue to reflect this potential. This activity
is expected to wane overnight. Then, during peak heating on
Monday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may redevelop south
of HWY 70. Weak shear and modest instability is expected to
limit any severe weather risk Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Late in the week, we will be monitoring the
potential for an increased heat risk thanks to similarly hot
conditions as this weekend, but with higher humidity. Guidance
currently suggests the "feels like" temperatures will reach
100-105 degrees by Friday and Saturday. Forecast aids like the
ECMWF`s EFI, and the NAEFS ensemble guidance are showing an
increased signal for above normal temperatures. Additionally,
the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has outlooked much of the
Eastern U.S. for a risk of hazardous heat during this time. Of
note, too, the latest 00z deterministic guidance have trended
warmer, especially on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the course of the
12z TAF cycle. Like yesterday, today will feature light
southwest winds becoming gusty this afternoon thanks to
increased mixing and the inland-advancing seabreeze. Due to the
dry and stable airmass in place, the risk of TSRA is very low
(<5% chance) along the seabreeze today. However, by this
evening a cold front will be approaching the area from the
north. This may provide just enough lift to support a risk of
isolated SHRA and TSRA. For now, though, the greatest TSRA risk
this evening looks to be focused north and east of the ENC TAF
sites.

Outlook: A cold front will move through ENC tonight and Monday.
A TSRA risk may accompany the front Monday afternoon, mainly in
the vicinity of KOAJ. Otherwise, a northeasterly wind shift can
be expected at all TAF sites as the front moves through. A
brief period of sub-VFR conditions may accompany any TSRA that
develops Monday afternoon. Behind the front, a period of low
stratus may develop Monday night into Tuesday. A more stable
airmass behind the front should keep the TSRA risk on the low
side through mid-week.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine conditions through this evening are expected to be very
similar to what was observed yesterday. Winds of 10-20kt this
morning are expected to build to 15-25kt this afternoon and
evening as the thermal gradient strengthens. The gradient may be
further enhanced by a cold front approaching from the north.
The latest guidance are favoring the central waters for the
greatest risk of 25kt winds, and the marine headlines were
adjusted to focus primarily on this area. For the coastal
waters, seas of 3-5ft are expected through tonight, with 4-6ft
seas likely from Cape Lookout to Cape Hatteras. As the above-
mentioned cold front approaches the area this evening, a risk of
isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop, mainly across
the northern waters.

Outlook: A cold front will move through the remainder of the
waters on Monday with a northeasterly wind shift. Winds of
10-20kt are expected behind the front, with a few gusts up to
25kt possible. At this time, winds and seas are expected to
remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria, but this potential
will be monitored. High pressure then builds in Monday night
into Tuesday with improving marine conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 06/07 (Sunday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern      98/2008  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 90/1988  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville    100/2008  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 94/2008  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       99/1914, 2008  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  99/2001  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Monday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
     Monday for AMZ158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM