711
FXUS62 KMHX 141856
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
256 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern will continue into early next week
thanks to an unstable and very moist airmass in place across the
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sat...

Key Messages

 - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with heavy rain expected
   through this evening

Latest analysis shows high pressure anchored off the SE coast,
wavy front draped through the Mid-Atlantic and shortwave
pushing off the Carolina coast. Front will slowly begin to sink
southward overnight. Showers and thunderstorms continue to
blossom along and south of Hwy 70 early this afternoon, courtesy
of wave pushing off the coast coupled with the seabreeze.
Coverage may shift further inland and north later this afternoon
and early evening. Weak deep layer shear should keep the risk
of severe weather at a minimum, but water-loaded downdrafts
capable of strong, gusty winds will be possible. Of note, as the
wave moves through today, there may be just enough of a boost
with winds aloft to support an area of 20-25 kt of deep layer
shear. Anomalous PWATs of 2"+ will combine with a deep warm
cloud layer and slow storm motions, supporting a risk of intense
rainfall rates. A Flood Watch was contemplated for portions of
ENC, especially where the heaviest rainfall totals occurred
yesterday, but there is some uncertainty regarding where the
heaviest rainfall totals will be. Will continue to hold off on a
watch with this forecast, but continue to evaluate the
potential in later updates.

In the wake of today`s shortwave, guidance is in generally good
agreement showing an area of low-mid level drying overspreading
ENC this evening and tonight. Should this be realized, there
may be a relative minimum in shower and thunderstorm activity
tonight, especially inland. Regardless, it will be another warm
night, with lows in the 70s areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sat...

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected again
  Sunday, with potential for localized flooding and gusty winds.

High pressure will remain anchored offshore as weak backdoor
front begins to sink southward into the northern portions
of the forecast area. MLCAPES will reach 15-2500 J/kg, with 0-6
km deep layer shear around 20-30 kt, while the front/seabreeze
should provide ample forcing. There will be a threat for some of
this activity to become severe in nature with damaging winds
being the primary hazard, though a few isolated instances of
hail and an isolated tornado can`t be completely ruled out. The
one limiting factor will be the weak mid-level lapse rates which
may preclude a widespread severe threat. Either way SPC
currently has the area under a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for
severe thunderstorms Sun afternoon and eve. Other concern will
again be the potential for locally heavy rain with PWATs around
2 inches, which could lead to localized flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled weather pattern into Tuesday with multiple chances for
severe weather and heavy rain

- Potential for dangerous heat indices midweek into the end of next
week.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Unsettled weather will continue
into Mon/Tue as upper ridging remains anchored to the south and
east. At the same time, a slow moving upper trough gradually
pushes E`wards across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic next week
with multiple weak shortwaves tracking along the periphery of
this upper trough. At the surface, cold front to the north at
the start of the period will dive SE`wards, eventually stalling
over the area Sun night, before lifting N on Mon and remaining
just north of the area on Tue. As this occurs, the frontal
boundary and Seabreeze will become the focus for shower and
thunderstorm activity each day. The general trend for each day
will be for ongoing showers and thunderstorms offshore to
gradually push onshore with the seabreeze each morning. Then by
the afternoon as the front nears the area, additional shower and
thunderstorm activity develops before chances lower and precip
pushes offshore each night. With warm and muggy conditions
expected, MLCAPES will reach 1500-2500 J/kg on Mon/Tue. With
0-6 km deep layer shear maxing out around 25-40 kts each day and
the front/Seabreeze providing ample forcing, there will be a
threat for some of this activity to become severe in nature with
damaging winds being the primary hazard, though a few isolated
instances of hail and an isolated tornado can`t be completely
ruled out. The one limiting factor each day will be the weak
mid-level lapse rates which may preclude a broader severe
threat. Will have to monitor trends but if convective coverage
is anticipated to be larger than currently expected upgrades to
the current threat may become necessary.

Otherwise, with SW`rly surface flow continuing to pump ample
moisture N`wards from the Gulf, expect PWATs to change little,
remaining around 2 inches into Tue night while remaining muggy.
Combined with slow storm motions, potentially training storms,
and plenty of moisture, any storm that does develop will be a
very efficient rain maker and localized flooding threat is on
the table through early in the week (See HYDRO Section for more
details). As a result portions, if not all of the FA is under a
marginal/slight risk for excessive rainfall into Tue. Temps
each day get into the upper 80s to low 90s with lows in the 70s
each night.

Wednesday into next weekend... Upper pattern eventually becomes more
zonal by midweek with a return to a more summer like pattern with
thunderstorms developing off the daily seabreeze and gradually
pushing inland each day bringing. Will note, an upper level
trough will be digging into the Mid-Atlantic from the west late
next week, but should stay north of ENC given the latest
guidance. As a result, a weak surface cold front may track
across the region late next week, but impacts from this front
remain uncertain. Of bigger note will be the hot and muggy
conditions as a combination of temps in the 90s Wed/Thurs and
dewpoints in the 70s will result in hazardous heat indices with
"feels like" temps closer to the triple digits each day. Will
have to monitor trends, but the years first heat advisories may
be needed next week if the current forecast holds.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 3 PM Sat...

Key Messages

 - Increased TSRA risk through this evening and again Sunday

Large area of showers and storms continue to impact the southern
portions of the forecast area this afternoon...with a mix of VFR
and IFR conditions. The risk will likely stay focused the risk
from KOAJ to KEWN and points south through about early
afternoon, followed by a potential shift towards KISO and KPGV
by mid to late afternoon. Where TSRA occur, there will be an
increased risk of sub VFR conditions and gusty winds. Outside
of TSRA, expect VFR conditions, with the risk of MVFR returning
late tonight through mid morning Sunday (best chances at PGV and
ISO). Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected again
Sunday.


LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...Unsettled weather will continue to
persist across the area into midweek next week as multiple
fronts bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to
Eastern North Carolina. Greatest threat to see storms will be
each afternoon and evening across the FA. This will bring a
daily threat for sub-VFR conditions each day. In addition to
this, early morning fog development will remain possible for
areas that see rain.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 3 PM Sat...

Key Messages

 - Increased thunderstorm risk for areas waters through Sunday

An upper level wave will continue to move through the ENC
this afternoon, supporting another round of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. The thunderstorm risk may
extend into tonight for the central and southern coastal waters.
For all waters, the strongest thunderstorms will be capable of
30-40kt+ winds and waterspouts. Outside of the thunderstorm
activity, the background flow will be southwesterly at 10-20kt
which will support seas of 3-5 ft. Strongest winds expected in
the afternoon and early evenings. Have seen a few obs across the
outer central waters build to 6 ft, will monitor the potential
need for short duration SCA.

LONG TERM /Sunday night though Thursday/...
As of 330AM Saturday... No significant changes to the forecast
on this update as high pressure centered offshore in the
Atlantic will continue to interact with frontal boundaries
tracking across the region into next week. This will bring daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms with offshore showers in
the morning clearing by the afternoon and then additional shower
and thunderstorm activity expected in the evening. This will
bring a threat for locally enhanced winds and seas within any
thunderstorm that moves out over the waters. Otherwise 5-15 kt
SW`rly winds with gusts near 20-25 kts are forecast for Sun
night with slightly stronger winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25
kt will be possible on Monday with the approach of a frontal
boundary. Winds ease slightly back down to 5-15 kt out of the SW
on Tue as high pressure tries to reestablish itself offshore.
Seas remain around 2-4 ft through the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 3 PM Sat...An area of increased lift will overlap with a
moderately unstable, but anomalously moist, airmass today,
supporting areas of intense rainfall rates. While the most
intense rainfall rates will tend to be of relatively shorter
duration at any one location, the rates may support a few
instances of flash flooding. Initially there appears to be a
locally higher risk along and south of Hwy 70 early this
afternoon, then potentially shifting northward late this
afternoon and early eve, north of the HWY 264 corridor where
thunderstorms may be a bit more organized, potentially
supporting a longer residence time of the higher rates. A Flood
Watch was contemplated, but the coverage of thunderstorms may be
scattered enough to limit the overall risk. This will continue
to be re-evaluated tonight, with potential heavy rain threat
cont Sun. Similar conditions will be possible on Sunday and
Monday as a frontal boundary remains around the area which will
continue to promote a heavy rain and isolated flash flooding
threat across portions of ENC.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RCF
HYDROLOGY...MHX