233
FXUS62 KMHX 080108
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
908 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Another iteration of wind forecast through midweek to blend in
18Z HiRes model suite.

Aviation Disco updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and mostly dry conditions continue today, along with an
increased fire danger for all of ENC.

2) Low-end thunderstorm risk this evening into Monday
afternoon.

3) Risk of dangerous heat later this week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Toasty, above normal temperatures will flirt
with records across inland zones this afternoon as ENC resides
under notably warm low-level thicknesses in a southwest low-
level flow regime. See the CLIMATE section below for additional
information on today`s records.

With ongoing drought conditions, today`s heat will continue to
support elevated fire concerns areawide. In coordination with
the NCFS, an Increased Fire Danger Statement is in effect until
8 PM this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will slide south through Virginia
today and is forecast to reach NE NC by late this evening.
Scattered showers and weak thunderstorms will be possible along
the front tonight, generally in the Albemarle Sound/HWY 264
corridor, but the environment will become less favorable by this
time, therefore minimizing the severe threat. The front will
then continue to move south across ENC tomorrow, veering the
winds to the NE through the day. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to redevelop tomorrow afternoon south
of HWY 70, but modest instability and weak shear will keep the
severe threat at bay.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Confidence is increasing for dangerous heat to
impact the area later this week and into this weekend (Thursday -
Saturday). An increase in humidity will make the feels like
temperatures soar into the 100-105+ degree range, which could
eventually lead to a Heat Advisory being needed for portions of
the area away from the immediate coast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FR flight cats
expected through the TAF period. This evening, gusty SWerly
winds ease to a breeze lasting through the first half of tonight
becoming light and variable in the early morning hours ahead of
approaching front. As the front approaches, winds veer to the
north and a 15-35% chance of scattered showers and weak
thunderstorms in the Albemarle Sound/HWY 264 corridor, moving
SEward toward OBX through the first half of tonight. The E-W
oriented front will be along a line from roughly PGV to HSE
around 12Z MON, pushing Sward and off the Crystal Coast before
midday. Winds become Nerly directly behind the front, but the
strong 10G15kt winds out of the NE will be delayed until later
in the afternoon. Expecting the bulk of the area to be dry
through the morning hours with SChc of iso to sct showers and
maybe some tstorms in over SWern portions of the FA ~noon to
1700edt, only TAF site that has precip mention explicitly in the
TAF is OAJ with a VCSH nod, though EWN may see something around
midday. Modest instability and weak shear will keep the severe
threat down, but thunder can`t be ruled out. Expecting upper
level clouds to stream overhead through the period with some
lower clouds along and near the boundary around FL060-080,
though showers and storms may bring some lower cloudbases but
still remaining VFR.

Outlook: Low stratus may develop tomorrow night/early Tuesday
with a more stable airmass behind the front expected to keep the
area mostly dry through mid-week.

&&

.MARINE...
SW winds at 10-20 kt with gusts to 15-25 kt will persist through
this evening before relaxing a bit ahead of a southbound cold
front that will veer the winds to the north overnight and into
tomorrow. The latest guidance favors a quicker drop off of SCA
winds tonight, so remaining headlines for the coastal waters
south of Oregon Inlet and Pamlico Sound have been adjusted
accordingly. By tomorrow afternoon, winds will be out of the NE
at 15-20 kt but gusts should remain below SCA criteria, though
there is a window for 25kt gusts in the afternoon and into the
evening for PamSound and SW-NE oriented portion of the Neuse
River. 3-5 ft seas are expected across the 0-20 nm zones with
5-7 ft seas developing north of Cape Hatteras in the 20-60 nm
zones tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook: High pressure will move in on Tuesday with good boating
conditions expected for the next several days.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/OJC
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...RM/OJC/CEB