Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
067 FXUS62 KMHX 310658 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 258 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Areas of fog and low stratus early this morning give way to much drier conditions this afternoon, save for an isolated sea breeze shower or thunderstorm. 2) High pressure builds in through mid week bringing hot and humid conditions across the area. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Skies gradually clearing this morning as mid- level ridge centered over the southern plains builds eastward, shunting deeper moisture offshore. At the surface, weak high pressure is now in control with weekend front out of the picture, keeping winds light. With little change in moisture from yesterday, expecting another round of fog and low stratus especially west of Highway 17. Some periods of locally dense fog are possible early this AM. With ridge shifting overhead increasing mid-level subsidence, the risk of more widespread convection will largely be quashed. Sea and sound breeze activity today may spark a short lived shower or storm in the afternoon, but otherwise area will remain dry as highs climb back into the 90s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Ridging aloft builds further early this week and peaks over the area Wednesday and Thursday with H85 temps around 21-22C leading to temps well in the 90s most areas away from the immediate coast. Heat headlines may be needed Wednesday, Thursday, and possibly lingering into Friday with forecast heat indices climbing above 105 each day, especially inland areas and along the coast south of US70. Some locations may approach record high temperature values mid week and have included the current record values in the CLIMATE section below. Subsidence aloft will limit thunderstorm activity for much of the week with only isolated afternoon convection along the sea breeze at best, but most areas are expected to remain dry through Thursday. The ridge begins to retreat westward late in the week which NW flow developing aloft bringing the potential for MCV`s diving from the Mid-West across the area, possibly as early as Thursday night but more likely late Friday into the weekend. Still plenty of details to sort out, but AI NWP guidance suggests the pattern during this time will be at least marginally favorable for strong to severe storms. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... # --- AMD NOT SKED has been appended to EWN TAFs as the site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT). --- # Starting to see some fog and low stratus gradually develop across central and eastern NC terminals early this morning as skies clear under weak high pressure and calm winds. All areas vulnerable to IFR to LIFR conditions but highest probability remains for terminals west of MRH-EWN-OCW. Some periods of VLIFR are possible around dawn with visibilities as low as a half mile. Expect conditions to improve to pred VFR by 13-14z. With ridge building overhead expect far more isolated shower and thunderstorm coverage, largely confined to sea and sound breezes. Only TAF terminal that may be threatened by this is OAJ, but confidence is too low to include in forecast at this time. Outlook: Benign flying conditions expected for the work week as ridge remains in control aloft. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be limited to none until late week when another front approaches area terminals. && .MARINE... Very quiet boating conditions in place early this morning as weak high pressure is in control. Winds are variable at around 5 kt with seas at around 2 feet. Expect very little change to this through the morning hours with a uptick in winds to 5-10 kt this afternoon as sea and sound breezes become dominant. Outlook: Benign boating conditions extend into the week as high pressure remains in control. Although SCA conditions are not expected, with building heat inland thermal gradient winds out of the SW will return starting mid- week each afternoon and evening at 10-15 kt with a few gusts up to 20-25 kt possible. Another front approaches waters next weekend with a low risk of SCA conditions but an uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures for 09/02 (Wednesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 96/2014 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 91/2018 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 101/1932 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 91/1998 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 98/1993 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 95/1998 (NCA ASOS) Record High Temperatures for 09/03 (Thursday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 95/2020 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 91/2018 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 101/1921 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 93/1959 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 98/1980 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 96/2020 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SK/MS AVIATION...MS MARINE...SK/MS