631
FXUS62 KMHX 281741
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1241 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the weather through the first half
of the upcoming weekend. High pressure moves offshore by the end
of the weekend, with a coastal trough moving inland. A cold
front then moves through Sunday night. This will be followed by
a notable coastal low impacting the area Monday night into
Tuesday. High pressure then briefly returns by the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Friday...

Key Messages

 - The coldest air of the season will remain in place through
   Saturday

A cold, blustery day is on tap today in the wake of last
night`s reinforcing cold front. Most areas will struggle to get
out of the 40s, which is 15-20 degrees below normal for late
November. By tonight, high pressure will begin to nose in
leading to a weakening pressure gradient and lighter winds,
especially inland. High clouds may begin to move in late
tonight, but prior to that, great radiational cooling conditions
are expected inland, with lows in the low 20s expected. Light
winds plus lows in the 20s should support wind chill values in
the teens at times, even near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Friday...

Temperatures will moderate slightly on Saturday, but still
remain well below normal for late November. By Saturday
evening, light winds beneath strong high pressure may allow a
quick drop in temps. However, increasing cloudcover and a
developing return flow should prevent lows from getting as cold
as tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 AM Friday...

Key Messages

 - Growing signal for a notable coastal low to impact ENC early
   next week

An active weather pattern appears to be shaping up from late
this weekend through the upcoming work week. During this time,
upper level troughing is forecast to develop across the central
U.S., with southwesterly flow developing aloft across the
southern U.S. At the SFC, a notably strong area of low pressure
is forecast to develop along the Gulf Coast this weekend, then
lift NE through the Southeastern U.S. early next week. More on
that momentarily.

Prior to the coastal low, a separate coastal trough is forecast
to develop off the ENC coast Saturday night and move inland on
Sunday. A cold front is then forecast to sweep SE through the
area Sunday night. Increasing low-mid level moisture
overspreading the increased forcing with the developing coastal
trough looks to support a quick round of light rain Sunday
evening-Monday morning.

Attention then turns to the above-mentioned SFC low that is
forecast to track NE out of the Gulf Coast States. The majority
of guidance now depicts low pressure taking on an inland track
as it moves through the Carolinas and up into the Mid-Atlantic.
Also noteworthy is that the majority of deterministic guidance
have trended deeper with this low, now suggesting a 1000-1005mb
low as it moves through ENC. While the signal is growing
stronger for a deeper system, not all guidance is quite bought
in yet. Namely, ensemble and machine learning guidance, which
have a weaker system. All that to say that a strong coastal low
appears increasingly likely, but there remains some uncertainty
with the track and intensity.

In light of all that, the most likely scenario at this point is
for a coastal low to pass inland across ENC, putting our area
on the "warmer" side of the system. Not only does this lower the
risk of any wintry weather, it also opens the door for some
instability to edge closer to the area. The potential for some
convective elements, plus a plume of anomalous moisture and
strong forcing, appears supportive of a period of moderate to
heavy rain along the track of the low. Case in point, ensemble
guidance now shows a stronger signal for 1"+ of rain.
Additionally, various forecast aids like NAEFS and ECMWF`s EFI
also show a notable signal for heavy rain. The rain is much
needed as a large portion of ENC remains in a moderate drought.
Given the recent dry conditions, the area should be able to
handle 1-2", or more, of rain. However, some minor nuisance
flooding cannot be ruled out for areas that see higher rainfall
totals and/or higher rates (where convection occurs).

For coastal areas, especially the Outer Banks, we`ll have to
closely monitor the potential for oceanside and soundside
impacts due to the potential for strong winds, large waves, and
a higher tide cycle.

High pressure briefly builds in towards the middle of the week,
but this may be short-lived as yet another coastal low may
impact the area towards the end of next week.

Temperatures look to be mild on Sunday as southerly flow
develops across the area. Temps fall back down on Monday in the
wake of Sunday night`s cold front. Temperatures then bounce back
up on Tuesday (assuming an inland low track). Temperatures then
level back off on the cooler side in the wake of the departing
low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1240 PM Friday...

High confidence in VFR conditions through the period as cold
high pressure builds over terminals from the south and west.
Main aviation concern will be gusty northwesterly winds the rest
of this afternoon as pressure gradient remains pinched between
building high pressure and expansive low pressure over eastern
Canada, but this will become calm after sunset as high becomes
dominant.

Airmass likely too dry to support any fog outside of very
shallow patches in well sheltered areas. Modest uptick in high
clouds tomorrow morning with winds veering northeasterly at 5 kt
or less.

Outlook: The high moves offshore Saturday night with precip
chances increasing later on Sun as next cold front approaches,
and along with it a chance for subVFR cond developing. Coastal
low expected to bring rain to the area Tuesday, subVFR flight
cats probable.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 145 AM Friday...

Key Messages

 - SCA in effect for all offshore waters and inland sounds
   through this afternoon

 - Deteriorating marine conditions likely early next week with
   an increasing threat of Gales

Moderate northwesterly post-frontal winds are expected to
linger into this afternoon, and Small Craft Advisories remain in
effect to capture this impact. Winds should then lay down more
substantially by Saturday as high pressure moves overhead.
Relatively light winds are then expected to last into Sunday.
Seas of 3-5ft are expected to last into this evening, then lay
down to 2-3ft on Saturday, and stay low into Sunday.

Outlook: The primary focus next week will be the increasing
signal for a notably strong coastal low to impact the ENC waters
Monday night through Tuesday. Most guidance have trended
stronger with this low, and our forecast now shows a period of
gale-force winds for much of the coastal waters, and widespread
25kt winds elsewhere. It should be noted that on the higher end
of guidance, high end gale to storm force winds are within the
realm of possibility, especially over the warmer waters adjacent
to the Gulf Stream. This should also support building, and
impactful, seas. Mariners are encouraged to stay tuned for
updates through the weekend regarding this system.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1245 PM Friday...

Key Messages:

 - Fire weather concerns remain through late afternoon with
   gusty winds and low relative humidities.

Eastern NC has been experiencing Moderate to locally Severe
drought conditions with a long duration of little to no
rainfall. Dry air remains as Tds fall well into the 10s and RHs
dip into the 25-30% range. In addition, wind gusts will be near
20mph today with isolated higher gusts to 25 mph. Considering
the drought conditions and decreasing greenery as the fall
season progresses, fire weather concerns remain marginally
elevated the rest of today.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ131-
     135-150-152-158-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ154-
     156.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...RM
FIRE WEATHER...MHX