733
FXUS62 KMHX 272330
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
630 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Reinforcing shot of unseasonably cold air will intrude on
eastern NC tonight into Friday. High pressure builds in late
Friday into Saturday, then moves offshore on Sunday. A coastal
low is then possible early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 1825 Thanksgiving...Very minor, inconsequential
adjustments; forecast on track.

Key Messages

 - The coldest air of the season moves in over the next couple
   of days

Main focus for tonight will be secondary CAA push as
reinforcing mid-level shortwave pivots overhead, ushering in
anomalously low temperatures aloft (up to 15 degrees below
normal). Despite clear skies, northwest winds will remain
elevated and prevent more robust cooling overnight. Regardless,
lows will fall into the upper 20s to around 30 for all inland
zones with upper 30s across OBX. Wind surge will be felt more
over OBX where gusts up to 25-30 mph are likely overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 235 PM Thursday...

Friday will, by far, be the coldest day of the week as cold
trough settles overhead and 850mb temps fall below 0C. With
modest CAA continuing into the day, highs will struggle to get
out of the 40s. Clear and dry conditions expected as high
pressure continues to expand over the area from the west.
Pressure gradient will remain pinched between the high and front
offshore, keeping gusty northwesterly winds in place for another
day. Combined with very dry air as Tds fall well into the 10s,
some fire weather concerns exist - see the FIRE WEATHER section
for details.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 235 PM Thursday...

Key Messages

 - Coldest night of the season Friday night with some 10s
   possible

 - Monitoring the potential for meaningful rainfall early next
   week

High pressure then settles in Friday night, leading to decent
radiational cooling conditions, with lows in the low to mid 20s
inland, and upper 20s to mid 30s along the coast. Across the
coastal plain, lows may fall into the upper teens where winds
remain the lightest. One caveat for lows Friday night is that
there may still be just enough of a gradient to prevent complete
decoupling, especially along/east of HWY 17. Additionally, high
clouds moving in may offset radiational cooling effects some.
Regardless, it will be well below normal.

Cold, below normal temperatures continue into Saturday, with
highs still struggling to get out of the 40s, and lows falling
into the 20s and 30s. Increasing cloudcover should prevent lows
from getting as cold Saturday night as what is expected for
Friday night.

As we move into next week, attention will turn to a pattern
change across the U.S. Aloft, a positively-tilted trough is
forecast to develop across the western/central U.S., putting the
eastern U.S. in a more active, southwesterly flow regime.
18z/00z guidance has come into better agreement regarding the
overall synoptic pattern next week. The main point of difference
still centers around the potential development of a coastal low
in the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. The latest suite of guidance
is now honing in on a 1005- 1010mb SFC low tracking northeast
from the Gulf Coast to the Carolinas or Mid-Atlantic region
during this time. In general, a notable percentage of
deterministic and machine learning guidance have trended deeper
with this low. Meanwhile, ensemble guidance has stayed fairly
consistent from run-to-run (ie. not yet showing a deeper trend).
There is plenty of time to iron out the details, but the
deeper, and more consistent, trend is notable.

Based on all of the above, confidence continues to steadily
increase regarding the potential for widespread, meaningful
precipitation, with ensemble guidance now showing a 40-60%
chance of exceeding 0.50" of rain across all of ENC.

Temperatures next week will be highly dependent on the track of
the coastal low. A track near or just offshore (currently
favored by guidance) would lead to colder temperatures and a
cold rain. A track further inland (currently not as favored),
would lead to warmer air and a risk of thunderstorms.

In the wake of the low, dry and cooler air looks to settle back
into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1820 Thanksgiving...

Key Messages:

-VFR through the TAF period, with gusty NW winds Friday
 afternoon (13kt