Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
013 FXUS62 KMHX 271915 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 315 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure is expected to dominate the weather for much of the work-week. Weak low pressure may develop along the southeast coast early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 0220 Wednesday...Skies have cleared and winds have decoupled, so strong radiational cooling night begins to unfold. Front remains in excess of 100nm offshore tonight, where it will linger for a few days. MinTs on the lower end of guidance with lows in the upper 50s in the Wern counties to low to low to mid 60s along the coast, typical cold/sheltered spots like KDPL could reach into the low 50s. Even though we have been dry the last few days and soil moisture is low, patchy fog can`t be ruled out in spots where moisture pools/near warmer water sources. This fog may become dense with VIS falling below 1sm at times, but should be isolated enough to preclude issuance of dense fog advisory. Jet on the Eern side of the deep trough aloft departs the FA through the morning with the axis of the first of a few embedded shortwaves to pass through pushes over the coast toward the Atlantic around sunset. Lower at the 850mb level, down sloping NWerly flow in place early becomes more Werly as SFC high continues to build in from the W while localized SFC high pressure center drifts offshore, turning coastal winds more onshore. This all results in cool NEerly SFC flow and dry conditions across the area. Expect highs in the lower 80s most, upper 70s OBX, with Tds crashing into the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... As of 0230 Wednesday...CTl+C->Ctl+V of the forecast from last night for the most part. Next embedded shortwave approaches from the W, but this one not as deep as the last. Skies will start clear after diurnal CU dissipates, but some upper level coverage is expected to spread over the FA in the early morning hours Thurs as the s/w nears. Light onshore flow along the immediate coast due localized high offshore means MinTs for OBX/Crystal Coast will be slightly warmer than last night. Patchy fog in moisture pooling spots (like KPGV) and areas near warm water sources will be possible again. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 PM Wed... Key Messages - Below normal temperatures expected through early next week - A coastal system could bring impacts to ENC early next week, potentially including heavy rain and strong winds An anomalously deep upper level trough will remain over the ECONUS through this weekend and keep below normal temperatures and mostly dry weather in place for ENC. The exception to this will be both Thursday and Friday afternoons when some isolated to widely scattered showers and/or thunderstorms form along the sea breeze. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s inland, and upper 70s to low 80s along the coast. As upper level troughing reloads this weekend a surface low will likely form across the Deep South, and deepen as it moves along or off of the East Coast early next week. Major timing differences continue across forecast guidance with increased rainfall chances possible by as early as Saturday, and lingering as late as Monday night in some model solutions. Latest 27/12Z guidance has trended a bit drier and keeps bulk of heavier rain offshore, including latest runs of AI guidance, and pops are reduced to 30-40% immediate coast, to 20-30% interior zones. Following this system, below normal temps will persist across the SE with upper level troughing remaining in place through at least mid next week. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Wednesday Night/... As of 0100 Wednesday...All signs, guidance, and previous forecasts point to VFR flight cats through the overnight, but strong radiational cooling could lead to fog development in spots that pool moisture or are near warm water sources. Best chances PGV and EWN, less so at OAJ but still possible here. Willing to bet that should fog develop, obs will bounce to show LIFR to VLIFR conditions at times, but they won`t really be very representative of actual conditions over runways. Have included TEMPOs to cover the IFR possibility at the appropriate terminals. Any fog burns off quickly after sunrise this morning with sct diurnal cu developing by the afternoon. Light winds generally out of the NW/N through the day, becoming more Eerly along the coast around sunset as localized high pressure center drifts offshore. Fog development (and therefor SubVFR flight cats) overnight WED night can`t be completely ruled out. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 3 AM Wed...Predominately VFR conditions are anticipated into this weekend with cool and dry high pressure over the region. Increasing rain chances later in the weekend may bring some periods of sub-VFR conditions to ENC. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 3 AM Wed...Pleasant boating conditions will continue through tonight with high pressure building in from the west. Northerly winds at 5-15 kts will continue through late this afternoon when winds turns to the NE at 5-10 kts. Winds will continue to veer to the east tonight at 5-10 kts. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft through later today, and then become 2-3 ft. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 3 AM Wed...Generally good boating conditions will persist into this weekend. Winds will be mostly between 5-15 kts, but vary in direction from easterly Thursday, NE/SE Friday, SE/E Saturday, and NE Sunday. Increasing winds are possible Sunday as a coastal low develops over the SE coast, and winds could strengthen to as high as 20 kts. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft, but would increase Sunday if stronger winds are realized. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RJ SHORT TERM...RJ LONG TERM...TL/SGK AVIATION...SGK/RJ MARINE...SGK/RJ