871
FXUS62 KMHX 061855
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
255 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area late tonight into
Sunday bringing moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorm chances
to the area. Heaviest rain is expected to be east of hwy 17.
High pressure will build in late this weekend into next week
while a stalled front remains just offshore.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Sat...A hot afternoon across ENC as we remain
between a coastal trough to our east and an approaching cold
front to the west. This has not only kept skies partly cloudy
outside of some approaching high cirrus today, but with
southerly flow and WAA in place this has allowed for temps to
reach into the low 90s inland and mid 80s along the OBX and
immediate coast today.

Broad upper troughing will remain over the Eastern Seaboard tonight
with the right entrance region to an upper level jet and a
notable mid level shortwave approaching from the west tonight.
At the surface a cold front will slowly push across the area
tonight reaching coastal sections by early Sun morning. Could
see a few showers pushing into the western coastal plain this
evening but with upper level dynamics and moisture remaining
limited, PoPs generally remain below mentionable levels tonight
for much of the region. With increasing low level moisture,
guidance is suggesting patchy fog develops late tonight. But,
high and mid level clouds will be gradually increasing tonight
especially after midnight curtailing radiational cooling, thus
potentially limiting any fog development overall. Though could
see some low stratus try to sneak in as well closer to daybreak
Sun. Lows tonight expected around 70 inland and low to mid 70s
along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sat...Aforementioned cold front eventually slows
and then stalls along the coast Sunday afternoon and evening.
Broad upper troughing remains overhead, though a mid level
shortwave will be tracking across ENC late Sun morning into Sun
afternoon while the entrance region of an upper level jet sets
up around the area. As the front stalls, expect it to interact
with the incoming seabreeze Sun afternoon increasing low level
convergence across ENC. With previous days S`rly flow bringing
ample moisture northward and favorable lower level and upper
level dynamics finally in place, expect increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances through the day on Sunday especially along
and east of Hwy 17. Biggest challenge for the period will be
where rain falls as latest hi-res guidance suggests most
persistent shower and thunderstorm activity may occur in a
narrow swath along and just east of Hwy 17. With moisture
pooling out ahead and along the stalling front PWATs will jump
to 2+ inches across much of ENC on Sun afternoon allowing for at
least a low end threat for heavy rainfall. Exact location of
this swath (whether further inland or offshore) is dependent on
where the front stalls Sun and how it interacts with the
afternoon sea breeze. While storms should be progressive, given
the slow moving nature of the front and expected storm motion,
training storms are likely. With much of the Higher Res
guidance coming in today showing widespread 1-2" with locally
higher amounts possible, would not be shocked to see some very
localized flash flooding especially across our more vulnerable
urban areas and trends will continue to be monitored. Given
expected ample cloud cover and rain potential expect temps to
only reach the upper 70s to mid 80s tomorrow with hottest temps
likely along the Crystal Coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...

Key Messages

 - Cooler conditions late this weekend into next week

 - Errant showers possible along the coast early next week as
   coastal trough lingers, best chances of rain Tue and Wed

Sunday night into Saturday:

Front finally moves offshore late Sunday, stalling along the
gulf stream keeping much of the additional precip offshore as
well. Errant showers are possible through early next week along
the coast, originating from this stalled front/coastal trough
offshore. NE flow behind the front as high pressure builds in
will bring a stretch of drier, and cooler conditions inland
through much of next week. Mid-week, a wave looks to move
through along the coastal trough. This will bring the best
chances of showers reaching the coast and perhaps even areas
inland.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday morning/...
As of 245 PM Sat...Ongoing VFR conditions should continue
through this afternoon and into this evening, as outside of
some diurnal Cu at about 5-6 kft only high cirrus should be
noted across ENC. As we get into tonight, diurnal Cu field will
dissipate but additional high cloud cover should begin to
overspread the region from west to east as a cold front slowly
approaches the area and pushes across rtes late tonight into
early Sun morning. Shower/thunderstorm chances remain low across
most of the area but could see and isolated storm moving into
the western coastal plain this evening. After about 2-3Z tonight
ENC should remain dry until Sun afternoon. Some guidance is
still suggesting patchy fog development especially across the
coastal plain. However, incoming high and mid level cloud cover
may put a pin in that threat. Most likely scenario for now
remains we see fog after 06Z with fog potentially lifting and
becoming low stratus by Sun morning. For now have left both fog
and low stratus in the forecast but trends will need to be
monitored in case the fog threat trends lower overnight. If fog
of low stratus were to occur, could see some IFR ceilings/vis
overnight after midnight. As we get into Sun morning fog and
ceilings lift with MVFR ceilings expected by late Sun morning
with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing across ENC Sun
afternoon.

LONG TERM /Sunday afternoon through Thursday/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...Widespread sub-VFR cigs may develop along
and behind a stalled front Sunday, potentially lingering into
early next week. Scattered showers and storms expected,
especially for OAJ and EWN (and areas east) Sunday afternoon and
eve. Rain chances increase again, especially along the coast,
Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 3 PM Sat...No significant changes to the marine forecast
as benign winds and seas will continue across our area waters
for the most part through early Sun morning before conditions
begin to quickly deteriorate. A cold front will slowly push
into the area late tonight. Southerly winds at 5-15 kts are
noted across all waters with 1-3 ft seas noted across our
coastal waters this afternoon. As the front nears the area winds
should gradually veer to a SW`rly direction tonight at 5-10
kts. We will continue to remain precip free for the most part
across our waters through tonight as well though cant rule out a
stray shower or two. As we get into SUnday front should slowly
push across our waters allowing 5-10 kt SW`rly winds to shift
to a NE`rly direction behind the front late Sun morning into SUn
afternoon and increase to 10-20 kts. As the winds shift and
increase seas across our coastal waters should also increase
closer to 2-4 ft as well. Precip chances also increase Sun
afternoon and evening with an isolated chance at a few
thunderstorms as well.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Prolonged period of SCA conditions likely to develop early
  next week

The front will move through the waters Saturday night and early
Sunday. Moderate NNE flow will develop behind the front Sunday
10-15 kt, increasing to 20-25 kt (gusting to near 30kts) Mon
and Tue. Seas will remain at 2-4 ft this weekend, building to
4-8 ft Monday into Tuesday. Seas abate as winds ease late
Tuesday into Wednesday, with southern waters (Onslow Bay) first
to see sub 6ft seas as early as Tuesday night. Northern waters
(off of NOBX) may not see sub-6ft seas until mid to late day
Wednesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...RCF/RJ