238
FXUS62 KMHX 020020
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
820 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have inc pops for Sat into Sun, with slight chance to chance of
non-severe storms.

02/00Z Aviation Disco updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure remains in place on Friday with light winds
and near-record high temps. Chance for widespread, some locally
dense, fog tonight.

2) Moisture returns with a cold front and low pressure system
bringing scattered to at times widespread showers this weekend.

3) Cool high pressure behind the early week FROPA leads to more
fall-like temps, but a prolonged period of moderate N-NEerly
winds poses localized coastal flooding concerns for areas along
the OBX with compromised dune structures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Fog development likely late tonight into Fri
morning with mostly SKC, decoupled winds, and RHs already
around 100%. Fog may become dense at times and a dense fog
advisory may be needed in spots. REFS and HREF data suggest A
50-70% chance for VIS < 1/4mi across most of ENC outside of the
immediate coast and far Nern tier of counties. As a result,
have a mix of patchy and areas of fog in the grids across much
of ENC in the early morning hours.

Upper ridging will peak over the Mid- Atlantic Friday before
pushing offshore with the approach of an upper level trough in
the Ohio River Valley that will push east as well. High temps
could flirt with record highs given the set up (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS).

For reference, normal highs in early October are around 80 degrees,
and forecast highs are in the low 90s inland. Persistent
southerly flow and increasing low- level moisture will lead to
muggier lows as well, well above Normal, mid to upper 60s FRI
and SAT mornings.

KEY MESSAGE 2...No real changes in forecast thinking this weekend
as precipitation chances return as Gulf moisture opens up and a
cold front drapes across the Sern Appalachians and pushes
SEward slowly on SAT. As the next wave aloft approaches, the
moisture will squeeze into ENC, elevating rain chances for the
weekend. While thunderstorms will be possible, the threat for
severe weather is very low as ML CAPES are quite low,
unsurprising for early Oct.

The front loses steam as it approaches the coast and stalls,
ahead of a second reinforcing front spurred from the Great Lakes
by a stronger trough aloft. For now, ensemble guidance has
increased to 60-75% chance of exceeding 1" of storm total rain
with this system. Any rain will be helpful, especially for the
coastal plain of ENC that is currently in moderate to extreme
drought.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Precip chances now diminish quickly late Sun
night and by Mon morning should be pushing off the OBX with
drying conditions expected early next week. Stiff NEerly breeze
(peaking MON night into TUE) will lead to building seas and
elevated water levels. Astronomical tide levels will luckily be
on the way down, but seas building to 7ft, though relatively
choppy periodicity of 7 sec, but enough to lead to further
beach and dune erosion concerns across the areas with severely
diminished dune structures. Latest 01/12Z model suite has
trended a bit lower with winds fortunately, and will have to
watch if this is a continuing trend. strongest winds of 20-25 kt
with higher gusts now expected Mon night. Winds remain out of
the N-NE into late- week, but speeds diminish to 10-15kt later
Tue and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Good radiational cooling conditions with light/calm winds and
clear skies brings high probs (60-80%) for fog and low stratus
across most rtes late tonight into Fri morning, mainly between
06-13Z, bringing IFR or lower conditions. Some terminals may
drop below airport minimums at times, most probable along and
south of Highway 70. Conditions will improve after daybreak
Friday with pred VFR expected by mid to late morning with
scattered afternoon CU.

Outlook (Sat through Tue): Precipitation chances increase for
the weekend as a frontal system approaches from the northwest.
Showers and maybe a few non strong/severe storms possible
Saturday and Sunday with the potential for more extended periods
of sub- VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign boating conditions continue across ENC with light serly
5-10 kt winds and 1-3 ft seas across our area waters as high
pressure ridging continues to gradually push offshore. Winds
will veer to a S-SW direction by this eve while remaining at
about 5-10 kts. Seas generally remain around 1-3 ft at 9-10 sec
into Fri.

Outlook (Sat through Tue): By the weekend, a front will be
approaching the area from the NW and pass through with winds
turning NNE and inc a bit to 10-20 kt for nrn marine zones by
afternoon. Increasing moisture plus weak instability lead to
widespread showers with a few storms. At this time, conditions
look to remain below SCA levels through the weekend, but a
secondary front moves through Monday with SCA winds appearing
likely later Mon into Tue with 15-25 kt winds and seas of 6+ ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 10/02 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern      93/1986  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 89/1986  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville    94/1986  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 88/1954  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       95/1986  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  93/1986  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL/CEB
AVIATION...SK/TL
MARINE...TL/CEB