380
FXUS62 KMHX 041351
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
951 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide quiet weather through the end of the
week with a gradual warming trend. A cold front will move
through the area this weekend, with high pressure building in
late weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
As of 9:50 AM Thursday...No changes needed with the mid-morning
update.

Previous Discussion...As of 715 AM Thu...Deep upper low
continues to swirl over the Great Lakes and southern Canada this
morning with broad troughing continuing to extend over the
eastern half of the CONUS. Mid-level heights are forecast to
rise through the day and into the evening as a second shortwave
and clipper- esque system dives out of the Canadian prairies and
kicks the deeper low towards Hudson Bay. At the surface, weak
high pressure continues to hang on across the southeastern CONUS
sandwiched between an offshore stalled front and cold front
extending across the Midwest and into the southern plains.

Surface high will weaken further as front gradually advances
eastward, but moisture column is forecast to remain quite dry
(PWATs at around an inch) so skies will likely stay mainly
clear. With increasing heights aloft temps will continue to
climb into the mid to upper 80s inland, and near 80 along the
water - near normal for this time of year. With southwesterly
flow ahead of the front (up to 10 mph with some spotty gusts in
the afternoon with passing shortwave), expecting an uptick in
humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thu...Front will continue to make its approach
overnight with an uptick in showers and thunderstorms across the
western part of the state, but we will remain dry and mostly
clear despite a steady increase of moisture pooling ahead of the
frontal boundary. That moisture increase will bring a noticeable
change in overnight temps, especially along the water as lows
return to the low 70s and mid 60s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 AM Thu...

Key Messages

 - Temperatures gradually warming into Saturday

 - Cooler and unsettled late this weekend into early next week

Friday...The pattern will remain active with sfc high pressure
ridging in from the NE, upper troughing over the eastern US
while multiple shortwaves pivot through. Weak cold front will
approach the area Friday, though will likely stall and
dissipate to the west. Despite the pattern, looks to remain
mostly dry over eastern NC, with only potential for isolated
showers. Temps will continue to gradually warm closer to climo,
with highs climbing back towards 90 deg inland and mid 80s for
the beaches Fri.

Saturday through Wednesday...Complex low pressure system will
continue to push through Canada, while upper trough pivots
through the eastern US, and cold front approaches from the west.
The front will move through Saturday night into early Sunday.
Ahead of the front Saturday, moist SSW flow will allow for temps
to warm into the low 90s inland and mid/upper 80s along the
coast. Isolated showers and storms will be possible Sat night.
High pressure will build in from the north Sunday and early next
week. Weak wedge looks to set up behind the front into early
next week, as front lingers offshore (waves developing along
it) and potential coastal troughing, which would give way to NE
flow, more clouds than sun and increased shower chances...with
best chances along the coast. High temps will fall back into the
upper 70s to low 80s, and lows in the 60s-70 deg.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 12z Friday/...
As of 720 AM Thu...Very transient and shallow fog developed at
EWN overnight, although total time of sub-VFR conditions over
the past six hours was no more than 15 minutes. All other sites
held at VFR and, along with EWN, will continue through today
with clear skies sticking around for another day, apart from
some passing cirri this hour. Winds out of the south to
southwest at around 10 kt, potentially with a few gusts in the
afternoon as shortwave transits aloft.

Rinse and repeat for tonight with mainly clear skies and a
marginal risk of visibility restrictions after 06z.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 215 AM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through Saturday.
While probs remains low, there will be potential for patchy
sub- VFR fog and/or stratus each morning. A cold front will move
through Saturday night and early Sunday. Widespread sub-VFR
cigs may develop behind the front Sunday, potentially lingering
into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 300 AM Wed...Conditions continue to improve over area
waters as high pressure remains overhead. Winds across all zones
are at 5 kt or less, and seas have now fallen to around 2-4 feet
offshore. Very little change in offshore conditions forecast
today as winds increase out of the south to southwest after
sunrise ahead of a cold front approaching the mid-Atlantic. A
few gusts up to 15 kt are possible in the late afternoon with a
passing shortwave, highest probability for the waters north of
Hatteras.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 215 AM Thu...

Key Messages:

- SCA conditions likely to develop early next week

S-SW winds 5-15 kt Fri and Sat as a cold front approaches from
the west. The cold front will move through the waters Saturday
night and early Sunday. Moderate NNE flow will develop behind
the front Sunday 10-15 kt, increasing to 15-25 kt Monday. Seas
will remain at 2-4 ft into the weekend, building to 4-7 ft
Monday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/OJC
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/MS
MARINE...CQD/MS