050
FXUS62 KMHX 040616
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
116 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm with increasing moisture and isolated showers through
Thursday.

2) Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms on Friday ahead
of a cold front.

3) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the fropa for this
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Little change to the forecast reasoning and
synoptic setups through Thu. Where guidance is fairly well
clustered is with an amplified upper trough that will be
shifting east out of the Central U.S. A progressive and open
wave will sweep through the Eastern U.S at the end of the week.
Before that happens, low level flow will be from a moist
easterly direction this evening then switch southeast on
Wednesday as weak warm front/coastal trough lifts through, which
will produce some widely sct showers. Continued higher than
advertised NBM pops for these widely scattered showers, best
chances during diurnal heating. No real accums of rain expected,
but enough to wet the ground in places. Area is firmly
entrenched in swrly flow Thu, but with no forcing in place, pops
are generally less than 15% except for the OBX, which may ocnl
be plagued by some showers skirting the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Friday - Still looks like widespread showers
and even a few thunderstorms (during the afternoon) into
evening with a wet cold front moving through. Of note, some
guidance shows anomalous moisture and higher- than- normal
instability for early November, as indicated by EFI highlighting
CAPE vals nearing the 80th percentile. Have increased the
thunder threat for inland areas where the EFI is highlighting
the higher CAPE/Shear indices, with slght chc thunder probs for
coastal counties. If best forcing lines up with peak heating, a
strong to severe thunderstorm threat would materialize for areas
esp west of Hwy 17 Fri afternoon. Main threat would be damaging
winds.

Very warm and humid airmass in place, and nighttime lows will
esp be very warm, and be closer to our normal highs for this
time of year. Some record warm lows may be in jeopardy. Highs
through Fri will be near 80 inland with 70s coast, and lows will
be in the 60s. For reference, normal highs are 65-70 for early
November, with normal lows in the 40s inland and 50s along the
coast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Good agreement amongst models with fropa late
Fri, which will usher in a more seasonably dry airmass for the
coming weekend. Return to mo sunny skies and highs in the upper
60s to low 70s, and lows generally in the 40s. Warmest day will
be Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast confidence is low to moderate over the next 24 hours.

Over the past few hours, an area of stratus and SHRA have developed
in association with a strengthening coastal trough just offshore of
ENC. Given the southeasterly low-level flow in place, it`s expected
that this stratus will attempt to work inland through the night,
with CIG heights lowering as the airmass ahead of the stratus
radiates and cools/moistens. The previous TAFs were adjusted based
on recent trends and the expectation outlined above. What is most
uncertain is how low CIG heights will get, and how far inland low
CIGs will get. Where the stratus doesn`t reach, there will continue
to be a risk of reduced VIS in BR/MIFG/FG. Low clouds should rise
and scatter out some during the day Wednesday. Another round of low
stratus and/or BR/MIFG/FG then appears possible Wednesday night.

Outlook: Periods of low clouds and SHRA advecting off the Atlantic
will continue to primarily impact KMRH through Thursday night.
However, periods of low clouds will likely reach further inland
at times, with at least some risk of sub-VFR conditions at
times. On Friday, a cold front is forecast to move through with
an increased risk of SHRA and TSRA. Some of the strongest TSRA
may be accompanied by a risk of strong winds of 40kt+. Very
heavy rain and IFR/LIFR VIS will be possible as well. The
northwest wind shift along the front is expected to occur Friday
evening or Friday night. A drier northwesterly flow behind the
front should then support mainly VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain in place to the north with coastal
troughing along the coast. Latest obs show NE-SE winds 5-15 kt
with seas mainly 2-4 ft. Light to moderate winds will continue
through the period (strongest across the outer southern and
central waters). Seas 2-4 ft will grad build through the day and
tonight with developing SE winds and increasing swell from low
pressure well offshore. Seas will build to 3-5 ft nearshore and
4-6 ft offshore. Iso to widely sct light showers will be
possible through mid week.

Outlook (Thu through Sun): The winds become south to southeast
by Thursday in the wake of the inland-advancing coastal trough
and warm front. Winds will cont in the 5-15 kt range with sub
SCA seas. Thursday and beyond, a better chance for some advected
6+ ft seas as weak low pres develops well offshore, though
winds will remain below 20 kt. Cold front passes through late
Friday, with winds turning nwrly behind the fropa but should
cont remaining below SCA thresholds. High 6+ ft seas may linger
into the weekend however.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/TL
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...CQD/TL