151
FXUS62 KMHX 121220
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
720 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warming trend through the week with high pressure in control.
A frontal system will approach the area late weekend and early
next week, bringing the next rain chances to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 235 AM Wed...Latest analysis shows 1027mb high pressure
centered over the SE US, with shortwave moving through the Mid-
Atlantic. High pressure will remain centered over the SE US
today. Increasing SW flow and building heights will allow for
much warmer temps, still below normal, with highs climbing into
the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 235 AM Wed...A mid level shortwave pushes across the Mid-
Atlantic tonight with an attendant sfc trough/front pushing
through the area. The airmass remains very dry and don`t expect
much in the way of clouds, let alone precip, with this system.
Westerly breeze should keep temps more mild than the past
several nights with lows falling into the upper 30s to low 40s
inland and mid/upper 40s for the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 235 AM Wed...High pressure will remain in control through
the first part of the weekend, with a front approaching late
weekend and early next week. Deep westerly downslope flow ahead
of the ridge sliding across Sern CONUS will bring a grad
warming trend into the weekend. Highs in the upper 50s to low
60s Thu, warming into the 70s by Sunday as high pressure slides
offshore and SW flow develops. The next front will approach the
area late next weekend and early next week. Still some uncertainty
with the overall pattern, but may see a slight increase in rain
chances and temps near climo.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 0700 Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - Gusty winds (20-25kt) today
 - Two windows of LLWS impacts expected, first in the early
   morning hours, second the first half of tonight

VFR flight cats through the TAF period. Light SWerly winds
early strengthening through the day. Strong winds above the
inversion lead to LLWS concerns around FL020 for all TAF sites
from around 09z-14z. SWerly winds strengthen to 10-15G20+kt
midday as a mid level shortwave passes across the region. Winds
will eventually ease this evening closer to sunset as shortwave
pushes out to sea and the pressure gradient relaxes. Second
window of LLWS for all TAF sites after sunset tonight with SFC
winds calming but winds just above the inversion around FL020
remaining 35-40kt whilst veering from W to NW.

Outlook: The risk of significant aviation impacts appears low
beyond Wednesday. VFR prevails into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 715 AM Wed...

Key Messages

 - Small Craft Advisories continue for the coastal waters and
   sounds into tonight and Thursday

Latest obs show W winds 15-25 kt with gusts approaching 30kt
over far outer waters and seas 3-6 ft. High pressure will
remain in control today, with a dry front moving through the
waters tonight and early Thu. WSW winds will increase to 20-25
kt with area of gusts 25-30 kt expanding slightly with seas
building to 5-8 ft. Winds peak late morning and ease slightly
through rest of day. Probs still look low for gale force gusts
near the Gulf Stream. Winds and seas finally begin to relax
Thursday 10-20 kt as high pressure builds over SECONUS
eventually sliding off the coast first half of the weekend.
Better boating conditions expected Friday with NW winds 5-15 kt
and seas 2-4 ft. Moderate NW winds 10-20 kt expected Sat with
seas 2-4 ft. Gradient will tighten Sunday ahead of the next
approaching front, with SW winds increasing to 15-25 kt with
seas building to 5-8 ft. SCA conditions likely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 0200 Wednesday...

Elevated fire weather concerns continue through Wednesday due to
dry and breezy conditions.

SWerly winds start out light this morning but strengthen during
peak heating to 10-14G20kt. The SWerly flow will allow Tds to
rise 10-15deg higher than yesterday. However, MinRHs will still
bottom out in the upper 20%s. Additionally, another round of
freezing temperatures this morning will further dry ground
fuels. With that said, the peak winds and MinRHs are forecast to
be relatively short lived, especially compared to TUE. Because
of this, in collaboration with the NCFS and neighboring offices,
have decided to not go with any fire Wx headlines for today.

Dry conditions continue for much of the week with MinRHs in
the low to mid 30%s, but winds are forecast to be markedly
weaker with ridging expanding over SECONUS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for AMZ131-230-
     231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for AMZ135-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for AMZ150-152.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for AMZ154-156.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...CQD
FIRE WEATHER...MHX